NZ Fifa Rankings to drop to between 139 and 149

 

The formula for points per game is P = M x I x T x C x 100 x how recent the game was. Look it up on FIFA to understand.

My calcs for the Wales game is 125 points. Unfortunately you have to divide this by the number of games you have played in the last 12 months (Min 5) we have played 4, Wales, Cost, Vene, Brazil. But we have to divide our 125 by 5. Which is only 25 points gained for the year so far from the Wales game(Our only Result).

 

Because the results of the Georgian win 3-1 and Estonia draw 1-1 have now rolled back into over 12 months. The points from those games get x by .50 for being last year. They were both ranked a similar ranking to Wales. So basically we had two results last year compared to one this year. And most of the weighting goes to the last 12 months.( thats why we will be dropping)

 

Other factors are our WCQ games back in 2004 are starting to drop off the calc. And wins against those island nations were giving us  80 to 90 points x .20(for being so long ago). Only one of these dropped off for this recent estimate i am making.

 

The only thing I am not sure about is whether you have to divide the previous years points by the number of games we played in that particular 12 months.( I think you must have to). In which case I probably need to tweak it down further as in 04 we only played 3 games(not calender year, but rolling fifa year, ie june 04 - may -05) So I should have divided those points by min 5 not 3. This would mean we are on 118 points and would drop to 149th(as the table stands of course).

 

Anyway doesn't really seem right? Surely the other countries would get effected by this. I had a quick look at Fiji. Wondered how they could be on 119 points. They never play. Well you dont lose points for not playing. They beat India twice in Aug 2005. Probably still living off these points. I also had a look at Scotland, how are they ranked 14th in the world - Answer: they beat France and would have got over 1400 points for that game alone. The more games they start to lose in euro 2008 though the more their points get divided by games played. They won't drop to much or at all next month, because they haven't played since March. There movement will be based on teams passing them, which is likely.

 

If I am correct, then it is going to pay to play the Island nations as much as possible and win.and the Malaysia and singapores. Much more than the previous ranking system. As long as we dont play teams outside the top 200. We should still get 50 points or more each game. Once we have our build up games and WCQ later this year. Watch us catapault up the FIFA rankings.

 

Can someone else have a look at this please? My brain is dead now. Links below to the rules.

 

Draw = 1.0

Importance = 1.0 friendly

Strength = 1.25 (200-75th place)

Confederation = .925 ((1+.85)/2)

Times 100

You have to do it for each match going back 4 years.

Then apply 100% last 12 months, 50% 2 years ago, 30% 3 years ago & 20% four years ago.

Moving from eight years to four really cooked NZ because of the lack of games in the middle of the decade and not doing a full 5 games every year.

How many points are we losing from four year ago? 

 

I calculated everything the same except the confederation part. I just took 1 for the confederation as wales are in the European confederation. UEFA with a regional rating of 1.0

South America is just below them and the rest of the confederations are 0.85.

 

I chuck the other results in a spreadsheet to calculate the rest going back 4 years. A bit geeky I know. But we havent had that many results so wasnt to hard to chuck them in. Just estimating their ranking at the time based on Fifa charts was the least accurate bit.

We are only losing one loss to australia and one win against one of the islands in the WCQ. So about 80 x .20 = 16 ish

 

 

 

 

LOL. I was thinking of posting this one anonymously.

 

 

this uganda boy is bril at maths.. just ask him

It will help our ranking playing in the WCQ a bit because those games count as 2.5 as far as match importance compared to x 1 for a friendly. So a wins will get us 2.5 times the points. We might get 380 points for a win. Which will help our average of all games in the last 12 months.

 

3(points for a win)x .60(Strength of opposition) x 2.5(match importance) x .85(Oceania team) x 100 = 382.50.

 

The best way to improve ranking though is to keep getting results and beating the higher ranked teams. If we can win against the 5th place Asian team twice. Then we will jump up the ranking. Oops, that would also mean we qualified for the World Cup, maybe I am getting ahead of myself.

 

There is a window in September for friendlies, but WCQ count as 2.5 greater than a friendly, so lets focus on them.

My lowest estimate was 149. View actual latest ranking below.

Ranking Team +/- Pts
Jun 2007 153 Myanmar 3 154 New Zealand -27 155 Grenada 1

 

154!!!!!!!!!!

 

A game against the likes of China, Indonesia (maybe) or Korea would generate good income espcaially good of a gate-share could be arranged.

 

I agree, playing the European and South American teams has smashed our ranking.  Whereas playing teams such as China and Korea, especially in NZ would see alot of the Asian expats to come out and support (the visiting team obviously).

 

As long as you play at least 5 games a year you should be able to do all right in the rankings. As long as you win some of those games of course.

 

It is also measured over the last 4 years. So the fact that we only played one game in 2005 when we lost to australia means we got no points for that whole year.

And tee-shirts, absolutely yes.

 

 

 

Maybe, it will be interesting to see if there is any movement. My pick is we will drop further!

 

In fact. I will put it out there.

 

My prediction is we are going to be on about 75-80 points. 20 less than the moment.

 

My Ranking prediction for next month is............160 down 6 places