See what happens
NZ Fifa Rankings to drop to between 139 and 149
by the way. I have re-looked at my workings. I am out a few points
compared to FIFA so maybe I go the calculations wrong.
hahahahahahhaha Myanmar and f**king Grenada.
Jesus football in NZ is on the way up alright.
Great news
We've rocketed up 6 places in the World rankings, to be 148th
equal with the Bahamas! We should be stoked.
Imagine if Germany went up 6 places, they'd be over the moon!
(Actually off the chart, they're currently 5th)
Biggest movers?
If NZF organised a short South East Asian tour we could play
Singapore, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Vietnam. They are all
ranked above us and if we beat them in an away game doesn't that
mean more points for us. I'm all for improving our ranking
but maybe we are better off knocking over some of the teams just
above us and nearby rather than heading to South America and
getting our arses kicked. Has anyone heard anymore about the
games against Fiji?
Indonesia just had a good result at the Asian Cup didn't they ?
Indonesia just had a good result at the Asian Cup didn't they
?
They beat Bahrain but failed to get to the quarters. Vietnam are the big movers in Asia up 25 places. Plus a quarter against Iraq. nzowl, i agree we should be looking to play more teams in Asia. Lebanon or Iraq away anyone?
Afganistan FTW !
Thailand away 
actually thats not bad Sanday, Lebanon are 135, then onto Palestine
at 141 then over to Iraq, now thats a football tour to bring the
flak jacket for!!! Maybe Emirates want to continue sponsoring
NZ teams and they could fly us to the middle east to take on UAE
106, Syria 113 and Yemen 138. I really think if they could
organise say a 10 - 14 day tour of these countries or similar
groups of countries to play 2 - 3 games where the Fifa windows
don't affect their players so much as they are all playing in local
leagues we might jump up the rankings.
Dont you just love the pic of the AW's in the article. Adidas
strip, Uttiing, Lines, Nelsen, Hickey all playing. Must be at least
10 years old.
8 maybe ? Didn't Nelsen debut at the Confeds Cup in 1999 ?
And Bouks is in there and he debuted against South Korea which i think was 98.
And Bouks is in there and he debuted against South Korea which i think was 98.
If NZF organised a short South East Asian tour we could play
Singapore, Hong Kong, Indonesia and Vietnam. They are all
ranked above us and if we beat them in an away game doesn't that
mean more points for us.
Has anyone heard anymore about the games against
Fiji?
Actually you don't get any more points for away games or goals
scored.
You do get more points for playing teams above the 150 ranking
but unless you beat teams in the top 100. It doesnt give you too
many more points.
They also count on on average points per game earned. in the
last 4 years. So playing fiji's, hong kong, thailand etc aint going
to help much. Playing the islands and winning in the WCQ might help
a little. But we have little chance of improving much unless we can
beat some top 100 ranking teams in games that are higher than
friendlys. ie world cup Q, confederations cup etc.
Has anyone heard anymore about the games against Fiji?
Oh. Heard nothing from NZfootball. But the fifa website says
there is only one game now. Not two. The date has changed slightly
as well.
It is scheduled for 10.08.07. If they play at all.
WCQs assuming the ranking of the opposition is around 170 i.e.
((200-170)/100=0.3).
Then points go as follows = Win 3.0 x Importance 2.5
x Stength 0.3 x Confederation 0.85 x100 / 5 games per
year = 38.25 for each WCQ win.
We have 4 WCQ games. So I am assuming 4 wins x 38.25 =
153 more points
Less any points for the same time 4 years ago.
An extra 153 points takes us up to 264 points from 111 in June
07.
This would catapult us to the giddy heights of 113 place in
the world from 149 currently.
I am about to wrap a cold tea towel around my head with ice in
wild anticipation.
Imagine we were qualifying in Asia where the rankings for the
top 10 go from 36th for Japan to 83th for oil rich/cash rich
Qatar. At an average ranking of 60th, a win would get us
around 4 times the points about, a draw would earn us much
more.
Anyway, here's the FIFA graph on our progress, including the
47th back in August 2002.
Essentially bring on the WCQs. Either way a regular Oceania
programme should keep us above say 250 points. To break out
of this we need to play away from Oceania as much as feasible.
Even drawing every second match in Asia would place us around
the 60th mark, which is where we have to be to get one of the top
five spots to qualify via Asia.
I think if the nations cup had a more regular schedule (like, every
two years say) it would help, instead of just emerging to double as
WCQ's. If it weren't for CONCACAF Gold Cup, canada would be in a
similar position to NZ since we only play 4-5 friendlies a year.
Actually, in march of this year we were an all-time low 103, then
after gold cup we shot to our current 52.
Short tournaments with lots of weaker opponents do wonders for
rankings.
WCQs assuming the ranking of the opposition is around 170 i.e.
((200-170)/100=0.3).
Then points go as follows = Win 3.0 x Importance 2.5
x Stength 0.3 x Confederation 0.85 x100 / 5 games per
year = 38.25 for each WCQ win.
Actually I think they have a cut of point for the lower ranked
teams below 150 in the ranking i.e even if we play a team ranked
170. It would be 200-150/100 = .5
So some extra points there on your calcs.
Can NZ organise some tournements that would be ranked higher than
friendly games. Or do they have to be official FIFA tournements?
LondonChris2007-08-09 22:54:55
An annual tournement or every 2 years. With a few of the asian
teams would be good and the top Island team.
i.e
NZ
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Fiji
I guess the problem is getting the funding for travel etc for
all the teams.
Right London Chris, we take 0.5 for strength of opposition instead
of 0.3 and that gives us 266 for the WCQs on top of 111 currently,
a grand total of 366. That would place us at 88th equal along
with Bahrain and Slovenia. Have the games from four years ago
dropped off yet?
In FIFA terms that from the bottom of page three to the middle
of page two!!
Lets go down the road of E-L-O rankings where we are already 75th. The ELO system includes margin of goals, home advantage and expected result.
The only way is up.
Between June 6th 2004 and Feb 19th 2006, we only had one
international. A friendly with Australia that we lost 1-0 at
Craven Cottage.
Anything we win internationally is a plus (top 5 games or
average of all???)
So we may reach 88th to 90th yet,
Hey Edward I. I have checked my figures based on the All Whites
winning the first 4 of their WCQ games, the last one being
21/11/07. If the FIFA rankings was run at the end of November and
included all of those 4 wins. NZ would be on a total of 293 points
which would put them at 107 ranked based on the current points.
Equal with Thailand.
I was
just looking at some past results on FIFA.com. Did anyone realise
that the All Whites haven't beaten any team other than Australia
with a ranking better than 100 for nearly 17 years.
We would have played 7 games at that time in the last 12
months. So 4 wins x318.75 plus draw against wales got us 125 points
= 1400/7=200 points for the current 12 months plus 93 points for
previous 36 months on top of that.
The last 2 qualifiers are not until Sep 2008, against the top
ranked island team. If we won these two games and didnt play
anymore games that whole year we would end up on 361 points or a
ranking of 90ish. But we will no doubt have some build up games
during the year and lose a few of those.
I was
just looking at some past results on FIFA.com. Did anyone realise
that the All Whites haven't beaten any team other than Australia
with a ranking better than 100 for nearly 17 years.I think our current ranking is probably fair based on that
alone. We don't deserve to go above 100 ranking just by beating
Fiji and Solomon Islands etc.
In case anyone was wondering; Georgia were ranked 101 when we
beat them back in 2006.
We beat China in 2 games back in 1990. The rankings didn't go
that far back. But they were ranked 53 in 93'; so I assume they
were ranked in the top 100 3 years earlier.
We need to get into Asia Confederation ASAP!
LondonChris2007-08-11 03:09:17
I see St. Vincent and the Grenadine are now at 103. Good to see Ezra Hendrickson (captain - & Columbus Crew) still in the MLS.
These guys deserve some credit - they are placed 45 places
higher than the All Whites and nearly all of their players play in
their national leauge.
Has anyone even heard of this place before?
I think St.Vincent is in the West Indies, along with the Jamaica's
etc. They play more games because they are involved in the
continental qualifiers tournements etc. Kind of like how Australia
just played in the Asian cup. Then on top of that they have WCQ's
so they get more games that ranked higher than friendlies. They
beat a team 8-0 who are ranked 157etc.
We are punished as London Chris highlights by the fact that all of
Oceanias teams are week, Oceania itself keeps medeling with OFC and
WC competitions (IE next Nations cup is simply part of WCQs)
. If we were in anyother con fed I believe that we would
easily be in top 75. disco_mart2007-08-14 01:19:06
I think St.Vincent is in the West Indies, along with the Jamaica's
etc. They play more games because they are involved in the
continental qualifiers tournements etc. Kind of like how Australia
just played in the Asian cup. Then on top of that they have WCQ's
so they get more games that ranked higher than friendlies. They
beat a team 8-0 who are ranked 157etc.
thanks, can certainly understand the system more now.
Essentially to improve our rankings we need to play better
when given the chance to play opposition like Chile etc i.e. we
need the Wales result to be a regular occurance
When we hit 100, I will have to throw a top 100 party. Then a
top 50 party, until we reach THE World Cup.
When do the new rankings come out? FIFA still have June's
figures, 148th.
I think they are coming out on the 22nd of August. Later than
normal this month.
Our points will stay the same 111pts. We will only move
ranking based on the others teams around us movements.
Still 111 points with no games last month but now only 149th, down
a place. Clinging on to page three.
Of note, India on 99 points in 151st place and Fiji 170th
place with 54 points.
So by the end of the WCQs we could be around the likes of Latvia
and Moldova
Yep. After our first 4 WCQ games. For the December release of
rankings. Assuming we win all 4 games and that we are not playing
any other friendlies before hand. We will be on 293 points. Which
would rank us at 106 on the current fifa ranking table. Just above
Moldova.
there's some cool analysis on this thread. one thing i wanted to question of the nzfa (i insist on calling them that) is why when we get the chance to play island internationals, like the recent games against fiji, we don't send out the all whites and thus miss out on gaining ranking points?
there's some cool analysis on this thread. one thing i wanted to question of the nzfa (i insist on calling them that) is why when we get the chance to play island internationals, like the recent games against fiji, we don't send out the all whites and thus miss out on gaining ranking points?
Money. Their answer is probably longer than that but with the
same gist.
Phalio2007-08-24 12:37:46
I don't care about ranking points, I just care about qualifying for
WC. If a young NZ 'A' team can get international experience
against the likes of Fiji, but not earn any ranking
points then fine.
but when these young fellas get good enough to be offered pro
contracts in the UK, we're stuck down at 146 and the work permit
criteria stuffs them?
in regards to cost; it only needs to be a locally based
all whites side on the park; surely our best locals would beat any
island nation on most days (if not we're in trouble).
also, since the OFC paid for this, i reckon we missed out on a good
few FIFA ranking points that we could have grabbed for free.
Yeah I see what you mean. A vicious circle eh?
yeah, it is a bit.
i just wonder what plans the nzfa has for correcting this
situation? graeme seatter often refers to it as being a
problem, yet he lets opportunities like this pass by when they
present themselves.
one of the reasons that very poor asian and central american
nations are above us on the list is because they play a lot of
internationals. they don't necessarily travel to wales,
switzerland, georgia, hungary and estonia (to name a few).
they play many games against local sides.
i say we need to run a locally based all whites squad and give
them regular local internationals. when the occasion
calls for it, or we play in europe or the US, we pull together a
top notch genuine first team selected from all players world
wide.
the local team would have the best a-league players, as well
as the best from the nzfc. players from other parts of the
world could be selected if they paid their own way back. when
we need them (for competitive results, WC quals, even marketing
reasons) we call in the big guns to provide the real quality on top
of an already established platform.