OFC MEN’S NATIONS CUP 2024 (Vanuatu)

Draw has just been made, and yes confirmed that NZF have changed their minds and now entered the AWs. Could it mostly be an U23 squad as prep for the Paris Olympics?

https://www.oceaniafootball.com/draws-finalised-for-ofc-mens-nations-cup-and-qualifying-tournament/

The Qualifying tournament will be hosted in Tonga from 20-26 March and the OFC Men’s Nations Cup 2024 will be held in Vanuatu from 15-30 June.

Fiji, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tahiti and hosts Vanuatu will be joined by the winner of the Qualifying tournament involving hosts Tonga, Samoa and Cook Islands.

Host Nation Vanuatu has been drawn in Group A and will play all its Group matches in Port Vila against New Zealand, Solomon Islands and New Caledonia.

coochiee

Just has just been made, and yes confirmed that NZF have changed their minds and now entered the AWs. Could it mostly be an U23 squad as prep for the Paris Olympics?

https://www.oceaniafootball.com/draws-finalised-for-ofc-mens-nations-cup-and-qualifying-tournament/

The Qualifying tournament will be hosted in Tonga from 20-26 March and the OFC Men’s Nations Cup 2024 will be held in Vanuatu from 15-30 June.

Fiji, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tahiti and hosts Vanuatu will be joined by the winner of the Qualifying tournament involving hosts Tonga, Samoa and Cook Islands.

Host Nation Vanuatu has been drawn in Group A and will play all its Group matches in Port Vila against New Zealand, Solomon Islands and New Caledonia.

At least we got the toughest group...

Thats no walk in the park...you want to be sending your best team.

Am I right in thinking this tournament is standalone and no crossover with World Cup qualification ?

loyalgunner

Am I right in thinking this tournament is standalone and no crossover with World Cup qualification ?

Correct.

loyalgunner

Am I right in thinking this tournament is standalone and no crossover with World Cup qualification ?

In lieu of Andrew Pragnell being unavailable, yes you are correct.

OFC WC qualifying to start in the Sept window from memory, and be completed by March next year. So after the March Four Nation tourney in the UAE, will be 12 months of OFC games for the AWs. At least we will have the Olywhites at the Olympics.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/350157331/all-whites-defend-oceania-nations-cup-after-all

The ONC (Nations Cup) winner no longer qualifies for the FIFA Confederations Cup finals or plays a part in Oceania World Cup qualifying, however, it is understood confederation finals rate higher than international friendlies in terms of FIFA ranking points.

Showtime Nixie

Thats no walk in the park...you want to be sending your best team.

Yeah well it went to pens under Huddo in Moresby, and Ricki had the Horror in Honiara. Be good to get some clarity on NZF's thinking an idea of the likely rankings boost if AWs were crowned ONC champs. But sounds like Pragnell is still on holiday.

Sorry so this tournament has no reward? nothing to do with WC right? I8f that is the case you could send U23s. Tournament just for rankings?

Showtime Nixie

Sorry so this tournament has no reward? nothing to do with WC right? I8f that is the case you could send U23s. Tournament just for rankings?

Last time we won this comp, it took us up about 50 places in the rankings. Important to take it seriously - repeat the feat and we can probably move into the 80s or even 70s of the FIFA rankings

Someone explain to me how the three highest ranked teams and the host nation all ended up in the same group?

image.png 43.09 KB

Someone said in the other thread that AWs jumped 54 FIFA places when they last won the ONC. That was with Hudson in PNG in 2016.

That looks about right. In this Wiki link is a table of the AWs FIFA rankings every year since 1992. Someone smarter than me can maybe copy the table in this thread. But in 2016 their best rank was 88th & worst was 161st. They did yes move 54 ranking spots in one go that year.

New Zealand's FIFA world rankings
RankYear  Best  Worst
109 | 2016 | 88 |  161 |  

FYI - looks AWs best rankings were 47th (2002) and 49th twice (2003 & 2010).

There were big jumps yes in years when the AWs won the ONC. 
2016 54 places
2008 57 places
2002 41 places
1998 31 places

lthomas20

Someone explain to me how the three highest ranked teams and the host nation all ended up in the same group?

image.png 43.09 KB

Blame Andrew Dewhurst, if you can stomach listening to him for 8 mins. Recorded stream here of draw being undertaken.
https://www.oceaniafootball.com/live-ofc-mens-nations-cup-2024-draw/

Matters little really. If NZF & AWs take the tourney seriously (and you suspect they will, if targeting a big rankings jump), the AWs should still prevail comfortably. 

Been awhile since the National team have played in any of the Island nations (2017?), but Bazeley has plenty of experience coaching age group teams there. That will be very handy.

lthomas20

Showtime Nixie

Sorry so this tournament has no reward? nothing to do with WC right? I8f that is the case you could send U23s. Tournament just for rankings?

Last time we won this comp, it took us up about 50 places in the rankings. Important to take it seriously - repeat the feat and we can probably move into the 80s or even 70s of the FIFA rankings

Well, there is of course a trophy to win; the only competitive trophy really available for a New Zealand senior international.

I don't think that it will that drastically affect the rankings; I went through a mock tournament (assuming everyone would beat their lower ranked opposition) just to see how the ranking coefficient would change, and in that case NZ gained 63 ranking points to get as high as 1260 points, or 91st in the rankings. That also doesn't take into account any games outside of the OFC Nations Cup, so could be lower than 91st (or higher if all the teams above in the rankings lose). Also doesn't take into account March friendlies which could well lower NZ's current coefficient.

The pots are determined from performance at the 2016 OFC Nations Cup. Contrary to every other confederation and the World Cup, which do them on current FIFA Rankings.

Pot A: NZ & PNG
Pot B: Solomons, New Caledonia, Fiji and Tahiti
Pot C: Vanuatu and qualifying winner

https://www.nzfootball.co.nz/newsarticle/136734?newsfeedId=1275622

“This tournament represents a great opportunity to potentially play up to five competitive and challenging games in a competition environment” says All Whites head coach Darren Bazeley.

“We know we will likely be coming up against a number of teams at this tournament in FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifying later this year, so along with looking to test the side against higher ranked nations around the world in other FIFA international windows, it is important that we challenge ourselves against who we will be facing in order to make it to Canada, Mexico and the USA.

“The tournament also gives us the opportunity to have the team together for a longer period than a regular international window normally allows which is important for our development as a side, especially ahead the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics in July which will involve a number of members of the senior side.”

You'd have to imagine this is going to be used for bedding in the u23 olympic squad. But it's a great window for selection all round. Not competing with the A League if you want to give some of the fringe Phoenix and Aussie based all whites a run and a lot European footy wrapped up so could potentially nab a few of the senior boys who come home to visit family that time of year without their clubs getting in a stink! 

Will be very interesting to see the make up come the time. Good for the boys to get battle hardened in unfavourable playing conditions and hopefully they'll be confident after rinsing an unsuspecting Croatia in the finals of the high profile and much sought after W Cup!

coochiee

lthomas20

Someone explain to me how the three highest ranked teams and the host nation all ended up in the same group?

image.png 43.09 KB

Blame Andrew Dewhurst, if you can stomach listening to him for 8 mins. Recorded stream here of draw being undertaken.
https://www.oceaniafootball.com/live-ofc-mens-nations-cup-2024-draw/

Matters little really. If NZF & AWs take the tourney seriously (and you suspect they will, if targeting a big rankings jump), the AWs should still prevail comfortably. 

Been awhile since the National team have played in any of the Island nations (2017?), but Bazeley has plenty of experience coaching age group teams there. That will be very handy.

8 minutes?  Masochist...

Does the amount of goals we (hopefully) win by affect our rankings, or just off a win/draw/loss?

Waineo'sWag

Does the amount of goals we (hopefully) win by affect our rankings, or just off a win/draw/loss?

Just the result. Nothing in the formula refers to margin of result nor home/away/neutral ground. The multiplier is dependent on the competition, so a friendly in a FIFA window has 10 (outside a window has 5) and continental competitions have a group stage multiplier of 30, and from the semis (technically quarters but this competition is straight to semis) it will be of 40. Having the higher-ranked group will help - provided they win - as the points per game increase with the higher ranking of the opposition.

Just for example, using the rankings right now (which will change in March), a win against New Caledonia in the first game would get 11.43 ranking points; a friendly win against Argentina (ranked 1st) would get 9.26.

carlind

Waineo'sWag

Does the amount of goals we (hopefully) win by affect our rankings, or just off a win/draw/loss?

Just the result. Nothing in the formula refers to margin of result nor home/away/neutral ground. The multiplier is dependent on the competition, so a friendly in a FIFA window has 10 (outside a window has 5) and continental competitions have a group stage multiplier of 30, and from the semis (technically quarters but this competition is straight to semis) it will be of 40. Having the higher-ranked group will help - provided they win - as the points per game increase with the higher ranking of the opposition.

Just for example, using the rankings right now (which will change in March), a win against New Caledonia in the first game would get 11.43 ranking points; a friendly win against Argentina (ranked 1st) would get 9.26.

What a spectacularly brilliant system.

coochiee

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/350158382/fifa-rankings-points-behind-all-whites-oceania-nations-cup-backtrack

 So fudgeing happy that an aim of Pragnell's is to get NZ rising up the rankings. Will do wonders for our worldwide perception and, as the article states, will help our players obtain work permits more easily

mrsmiis

coochiee

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/350158382/fifa-rankings-points-behind-all-whites-oceania-nations-cup-backtrack

 So fudgeing happy that an aim of Pragnell's is to get NZ rising up the rankings. Will do wonders for our worldwide perception and, as the article states, will help our players obtain work permits more easily

With that being a big focus, I wonder if they might want to suggest making it biennial, like AFCON is. That would make twice as many ranking points available; possibly even more as the other OFC sides would improve their coefficient too and thus each win more be more valuable. 

With how many more games all the other confederations play through qualifying, we're behind the ball from the start, so this would be the only way to catch up. If the system works against you, adapt until it works for you.

Other OFC sides should be up for it, as the rising tide would lift all the boats, and they'd benefit just as much as we would. Could be played either side of a World Cup year, as we typically would go into hibernation after a World Cup (maybe less so now) and there you could try your younger players, and then run one the year before a World Cup too.

If the ultimate goal is to get results at a World Cup, your best course of action is to get into Pot 3 and have a match against a weaker side - far more effective than trying to build a side off a couple friendlies against 40-50s ranked teams. Best way to do that is have as many high-ranking-point matches as possible. With eight AFC teams and six CONCACAF, we could definitely beat their lowest qualifiers, but will only play them if we get Pot 3, and, as pointed out, climbing the rankings via friendlies just isn't really practical. 

Maybe OFC could give the Pacific Games football tourney, ONC Cup status - or even a new OFC Nations League title. From memory Buckingham took a domestic U23 type team to the Pacific Games and won against senior Island teams.

Watching the AWs play the OFC Islands teams bores me. It's even a little depressing when you compare those games, to what other fixtures are happening around the football world at that time. I'd rather watch a friendly against a top 50 side. I want to see this young promising team push Ireland not beat Tahiti 6-1.

But yes have come around to the logic of trying to get the AWs higher up the rankings. At the least the OFC WC qualifying format looks short & hopefully sweet. All done & dusted by March next year. So combined with the ONC, will be just under a year of OFC fixtures (June '24-March '25), then hopefully a year of quality friendlies heading into the 2026 WC.

Still no world on AFC launching their own version of a Nations League. CONCACAF, CONMEBOL, CAF & UEFA all have them now. Still have optimistic hope, that FIFA will 'persuade' AFC to launch a Nations League somewhere in their schedule, and combine it with OFC. Playing competitive fixtures against Japan, Australia, Sth Korea, China, Thailand etc (and hopefully winning the odd game) should be worth some ranking points. Playing these games somehow instead of friendlies (with their minmal ranking points). That's being optimistic such a combined CL format will ever happen.

coochiee

Maybe OFC could give the Pacific Games football tourney, ONC Cup status - or even a new OFC Nations League title. From memory Buckingham took a domestic U23 type team to the Pacific Games and won against senior Island teams.

Watching the AWs play the OFC Islands teams bores me. It's even a little depressing when you compare those games, to what other fixtures are happening around the football world at that time. I'd rather watch a friendly against a top 50 side. I want to see this young promising team push Ireland not beat Tahiti 6-1.

But yes have come around to the logic of trying to get the AWs higher up the rankings. At the least the OFC WC qualifying format looks short & hopefully sweet. All done & dusted by March next year. So combined with the ONC, will be just under a year of OFC fixtures (June '24-March '25), then hopefully a year of quality friendlies heading into the 2026 WC.

Still no world on AFC launching their own version of a Nations League. CONCACAF, CONMEBOL, CAF & UEFA all have them now. Still have optimistic hope, that FIFA will 'persuade' AFC to launch a Nations League somewhere in their schedule, and combine it with OFC. Playing competitive fixtures against Japan, Australia, Sth Korea, China, Thailand etc (and hopefully winning the odd game) should be worth some ranking points. Playing these games somehow instead of friendlies (with their minmal ranking points). That's being optimistic such a combined CL format will ever happen.

The problem in Europe becomes that Nations League is so unserious that it's basically friendlies/pointless games except you don't get to choose who you play against. 

Look at the rankings - we will not be playing Japan, Aus or South Korea at least in the first season of such a comp. It'd more be sides like Thailand, Bahrain, Palestine, Kyrgyzstan, etc.

Now maybe it's still better than us trying to schedule a million friendlies over a 4 year period due to lack of OFC games, but not as helpful as you may think tbh. 

Hosting a friendly against Palestine would certainly generate some publicity.

Khalil Media

Hosting a friendly against Palestine would certainly generate some publicity.

Get all the protesters along and aim for a record friendly match attendance 😂

lthomas20

Khalil Media

Hosting a friendly against Palestine would certainly generate some publicity.

Get all the protesters along and aim for a record friendly match attendance 😂

If that's our goal, lets invite Israel instead (better team too).

Remember that hilarious period where we were playing WC qualifiers against Israel because no other confederation would have them?

Marto

lthomas20

Khalil Media

Hosting a friendly against Palestine would certainly generate some publicity.

Get all the protesters along and aim for a record friendly match attendance 😂

If that's our goal, lets invite Israel instead (better team too).

Palestine are actually pretty solid - drew with Saudi and UAE recently

A quad series with the US, Iran, Israel and NZ would attract plenty of interest.

lthomas20

Marto

lthomas20

Khalil Media

Hosting a friendly against Palestine would certainly generate some publicity.

Get all the protesters along and aim for a record friendly match attendance 😂

If that's our goal, lets invite Israel instead (better team too).

Palestine are actually pretty solid - drew with Saudi and UAE recently

Yipe they are big improvers. Socceroos only beat them 1-0 last year. They are likely riding a wave of emotion at the moment.

Doloras

Remember that hilarious period where we were playing WC qualifiers against Israel because no other confederation would have them?

like this:

mrsmiis

coochiee

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/350158382/fifa-rankings-points-behind-all-whites-oceania-nations-cup-backtrack

 So fudgeing happy that an aim of Pragnell's is to get NZ rising up the rankings. Will do wonders for our worldwide perception and, as the article states, will help our players obtain work permits more easily

🇳🇿 New FIFA Rankings have New Zealand go from 104th to 103rd in the world 📈 pic.twitter.com/DNTqvfQzK1

— FernsHub (@FernsHub) February 15, 2024

Samoa with a 1-0 win over the Cooks qualify for the June tourney proper.
They go into Pool B with PNG, Fiji & Tahiti.

https://www.oceaniafootball.com/late-drama-secures-samoa-spot-at-ofc-mens-nations-cup-2024/