lineup (15).png136.3 KB I think i'd like to see us do a 4-3-3 for our strongest lineup, I think with the narrow 4-1-2-1-2 you have to rely on the full backs providing the width and could be an easy way for teams to exploit.
This is pretty similar to the lineup that I arrived at. Although for me Sail has to play ahead of Marinovic. This is starting to look like a very strong starting 11 and wider squad, assuming everyone is fit. Looking at the Aussie's, I'm pretty convinced we have a much stronger side now.
Who could be the bolters to this line up or sub bench candidates? I’d wonder about a striker that could play closer to Wood or nearer Wood in the formation. I think Thomas may have played there for his club.
Greive/de Jong/ Waine. I thought Greive was great throughout, but while de Jong was honking as a lone striker, he did well combining with Wood and picking up his scraps, admittedly against weaker defenders.
Waine I’m not sure. My instinct is he and Woodsie might get in each other’s way a little, but he’s scoring goals and improving his play all the time.
I’m not sure what kind of formation that would be, but it was a tactical thought I had based on watching the qualifiers. I guess it’s some kind of 442.
That might also limit Singh’s space to drift inside or it might give him more options in making combinations.
We named 30 for the OFC tournament, pretty confident we'll name 23 max for the playoff match, and assume that for the WC it'll be the same 23.
I expect Singh will be called into the squad if fit, maybe Thomas if fit, that leaves 21/22 to be picked from the original 30
21 Bolded are who I'd be taking to the world cup with Singh and Thomas.
required 3 keepers. Matthew Gould (0 caps) Altrincham FC, England or Jamie Searle (0 caps) Swansea City, Wales* Stefan Marinovic (27 caps) Hapoel Nof HaGalil, Israel Oli Sail (0 caps) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand
Nikko Boxall (3 caps) San Diego Loyal, USA Liberato Cacace (6 caps) FC Empoli, Italy (LOAN)* Francis de Vries (2 caps) IFK Värnamo, Sweden Dane Ingham (8 caps) Newcastle Jets, Australia+ Niko Kirwan (3 caps) Calcio Padova, Italy Tim Payne (21 caps) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand Nando Pijnaker (4 caps) Sligo Rovers, Ireland (LOAN) Winston Reid (27 caps) Unattached Tommy Smith (42 caps) Colchester United, England Bill Tuiloma (28 caps) Portland Timbers, USA Dalton Wilkins (1 cap) Kolding IF, Denmark Joe Bell (5 caps) Bröndby IF, Denmark Matthew Garbett (3 caps) Torino, Italy Cam Howieson (13 caps) Auckland City FC, New Zealand Clayton Lewis (16 caps) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand (injured) Ben Old (0 caps, debut senior call-up) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand Marko Stamenic (4 caps) HB Køge, Denmark (LOAN) Kosta Barbarouses (47 caps) Sydney FC, Australia Joe Champness (3 caps) Giresunspor, Turkey Andre de Jong (6 caps) AmaZulu FC, South Africa Alex Greive (1 cap) St Mirren, Scotland Elijah Just (6 caps) FC Helsingør, Denmark Callum McCowatt (5 caps) FC Helsingør, Denmark Logan Rogerson (4 caps) FC Haka, Finland Ben Waine (0 caps, debut senior call-up) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand Chris Wood (61 caps) Newcastle United, England If Thomas is not fit then I'd bring in Champness, just for his creativity.
shoot so I have. good spotting. adjusted. Garbett reluctantly dropped. No room for Rojas.
theprof
shoot so I have. good spotting. adjusted. Garbett reluctantly dropped. No room for Rojas.
theprof
shoot so I have. good spotting. adjusted. Garbett reluctantly dropped. No room for Rojas.
theprof
We named 30 for the OFC tournament, pretty confident we'll name 23 max for the playoff match, and assume that for the WC it'll be the same 23.
I expect Singh will be called into the squad if fit, maybe Thomas if fit, that leaves 21/22 to be picked from the original 30
21 Bolded are who I'd be taking to the world cup with Singh and Thomas.
required 3 keepers. Matthew Gould (0 caps) Altrincham FC, England or Jamie Searle (0 caps) Swansea City, Wales* Stefan Marinovic (27 caps) Hapoel Nof HaGalil, Israel Oli Sail (0 caps) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand
Nikko Boxall (3 caps) San Diego Loyal, USA Liberato Cacace (6 caps) FC Empoli, Italy (LOAN)* Francis de Vries (2 caps) IFK Värnamo, Sweden Dane Ingham (8 caps) Newcastle Jets, Australia+ Niko Kirwan (3 caps) Calcio Padova, Italy Tim Payne (21 caps) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand Nando Pijnaker (4 caps) Sligo Rovers, Ireland (LOAN) Winston Reid (27 caps) Unattached Tommy Smith (42 caps) Colchester United, England Bill Tuiloma (28 caps) Portland Timbers, USA Dalton Wilkins (1 cap) Kolding IF, Denmark Joe Bell (5 caps) Bröndby IF, Denmark Matthew Garbett (3 caps) Torino, Italy Cam Howieson (13 caps) Auckland City FC, New Zealand Clayton Lewis (16 caps) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand (injured) Ben Old (0 caps, debut senior call-up) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand Marko Stamenic (4 caps) HB Køge, Denmark (LOAN) Kosta Barbarouses (47 caps) Sydney FC, Australia Joe Champness (3 caps) Giresunspor, Turkey Andre de Jong (6 caps) AmaZulu FC, South Africa Alex Greive (1 cap) St Mirren, Scotland Elijah Just (6 caps) FC Helsingør, Denmark Callum McCowatt (5 caps) FC Helsingør, Denmark Logan Rogerson (4 caps) FC Haka, Finland Ben Waine (0 caps, debut senior call-up) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand Chris Wood (61 caps) Newcastle United, England If Thomas is not fit then I'd bring in Champness, just for his creativity.
Garbett > Old Champness > Rogerson Rojas > Waine M.Boxall > N.Boxall Tzanev > Gould Lewis > ?
Rojas is also just getting back to match fitness, perhaps they agreed not to pick him as to risk him getting injured.
The island nations are not the softest teams to play, let alone the impact of lots of games in short succession and travel.
He's been playing consistently for the Victory. If I recall correctly he's snubbed playing the Island teams before, but I might be wrong. Pretty hard to include him in the starting 11 or even squad now.
I think Marco has previously been pretty committed to playing the island teams. He was involved in both the 2012 and 2016 OFC Nations Cup (scored our winning penalty IIRC). He also scored a number of goals for us during the home & away 2018 WCQ section against the OFC Teams.
So to me it seems strange he'd snub playing this time round with arguably a better shot at the World Cup on the line than the previous 2 campaigns.
I'd be disappointed if he wasn't involved in June from purely a football perspective as think he easily walks into our best 23 (and imo best 11). I guess we'll have to wait and see.
shoot so I have. good spotting. adjusted. Garbett reluctantly dropped. No room for Rojas.
theprof
shoot so I have. good spotting. adjusted. Garbett reluctantly dropped. No room for Rojas.
theprof
shoot so I have. good spotting. adjusted. Garbett reluctantly dropped. No room for Rojas.
theprof
We named 30 for the OFC tournament, pretty confident we'll name 23 max for the playoff match, and assume that for the WC it'll be the same 23.
I expect Singh will be called into the squad if fit, maybe Thomas if fit, that leaves 21/22 to be picked from the original 30
21 Bolded are who I'd be taking to the world cup with Singh and Thomas.
required 3 keepers. Matthew Gould (0 caps) Altrincham FC, England or Jamie Searle (0 caps) Swansea City, Wales* Stefan Marinovic (27 caps) Hapoel Nof HaGalil, Israel Oli Sail (0 caps) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand
Nikko Boxall (3 caps) San Diego Loyal, USA Liberato Cacace (6 caps) FC Empoli, Italy (LOAN)* Francis de Vries (2 caps) IFK Värnamo, Sweden Dane Ingham (8 caps) Newcastle Jets, Australia+ Niko Kirwan (3 caps) Calcio Padova, Italy Tim Payne (21 caps) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand Nando Pijnaker (4 caps) Sligo Rovers, Ireland (LOAN) Winston Reid (27 caps) Unattached Tommy Smith (42 caps) Colchester United, England Bill Tuiloma (28 caps) Portland Timbers, USA Dalton Wilkins (1 cap) Kolding IF, Denmark Joe Bell (5 caps) Bröndby IF, Denmark Matthew Garbett (3 caps) Torino, Italy Cam Howieson (13 caps) Auckland City FC, New Zealand Clayton Lewis (16 caps) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand (injured) Ben Old (0 caps, debut senior call-up) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand Marko Stamenic (4 caps) HB Køge, Denmark (LOAN) Kosta Barbarouses (47 caps) Sydney FC, Australia Joe Champness (3 caps) Giresunspor, Turkey Andre de Jong (6 caps) AmaZulu FC, South Africa Alex Greive (1 cap) St Mirren, Scotland Elijah Just (6 caps) FC Helsingør, Denmark Callum McCowatt (5 caps) FC Helsingør, Denmark Logan Rogerson (4 caps) FC Haka, Finland Ben Waine (0 caps, debut senior call-up) Wellington Phoenix, New Zealand Chris Wood (61 caps) Newcastle United, England If Thomas is not fit then I'd bring in Champness, just for his creativity.
Garbett > Old Champness > Rogerson Rojas > Waine M.Boxall > N.Boxall Tzanev > Gould Lewis > ?
Incl. Singh and Thomas
Tzanev - Gould probably agree. Garbett - Old, same same really, I'd rather see old there though Waine is a central player whereas Rojas is more of a wide player - Waine better option either Boxall is fine, Niko is currently in the team so a better chance.
Boxall jnr was only in Qatar because it was deemed best that his big bro, stay in Minnesota with his injury niggle.
Still Nikko is now definitely next cab off the rank if any of Tuiloma, Smith, Reid, Pijnaker or Boxall snr are injured. But tough for him, he misses out on a 23 man squad if all are available. He's the 2nd best player in his family.
But Smith, Reid & Mickey are all over age 30. So who knows injuries happen - and therefore he's always a chance of a call up.
Since this seems to be the flavour of the month: lineup (1).png124.15 KB My ideal first-choice lineup going forward. Bench: Tzanev (GK), Marinovic (GK), Payne, Boxall, Tuiloma, de Vries, Garbett, McCowatt, Rojas, Champness, Just, Barbarouses.
Hard leaving Smith out - I may want to reconsider that if we make the World Cup. Lewis isn't in my 23, but dependent on his recovery he might make it over Garbett or McCowatt. Waine very unlucky too, don't like not having a physically gifted striker on the bench.
Formation gives us an easy ability to switch to a front three if the opposition defends narrow (Costa Rica notorious for this). Singh can swing to the right and become an inside playmaker, Grieve or a substitute can play left wing.
lineup (2).png125.63 KB What I think is our strongest team using Hay's formation (RB a toss-up, and Boxall may replace one of the non-Reid CBs).
Since this seems to be the flavour of the month: lineup (1).png124.15 KB My ideal first-choice lineup going forward. Bench: Tzanev (GK), Marinovic (GK), Payne, Boxall, Tuiloma, de Vries, Garbett, McCowatt, Rojas, Champness, Just, Barbarouses.
Hard leaving Smith out - I may want to reconsider that if we make the World Cup. Lewis isn't in my 23, but dependent on his recovery he might make it over Garbett or McCowatt. Waine very unlucky too, don't like not having a physically gifted striker on the bench.
Formation gives us an easy ability to switch to a front three if the opposition defends narrow (Costa Rica notorious for this). Singh can swing to the right and become an inside playmaker, Grieve or a substitute can play left wing.
lineup (2).png125.63 KB What I think is our strongest team using Hay's formation (RB a toss-up, and Boxall may replace one of the non-Reid CBs).
I think you got to have Payne at RB his crossing can be such a good asset especially when Wood is the target.
Since this seems to be the flavour of the month: lineup (1).png124.15 KB My ideal first-choice lineup going forward. Bench: Tzanev (GK), Marinovic (GK), Payne, Boxall, Tuiloma, de Vries, Garbett, McCowatt, Rojas, Champness, Just, Barbarouses.
Hard leaving Smith out - I may want to reconsider that if we make the World Cup. Lewis isn't in my 23, but dependent on his recovery he might make it over Garbett or McCowatt. Waine very unlucky too, don't like not having a physically gifted striker on the bench.
Formation gives us an easy ability to switch to a front three if the opposition defends narrow (Costa Rica notorious for this). Singh can swing to the right and become an inside playmaker, Grieve or a substitute can play left wing.
lineup (2).png125.63 KB What I think is our strongest team using Hay's formation (RB a toss-up, and Boxall may replace one of the non-Reid CBs).
I think you got to have Payne at RB his crossing can be such a good asset especially when Wood is the target.
fair, have a hard time picking myself but I just prefer Kirwan. Had a stellar season so far in Serie C, was named best foreign player in his regional division a while ago iirc and always pops up in teams of the week
edit: got that completely wrong - named as best foreign right back (not player) in the entirety of Serie C (not just his division)
Was suggesting the 442 as a tactical back up, if plan A doesn’t work? We mostly played 433 in qualifiers or 352? We focused on width and crossing with Kosta /Champness/ Just/Rogerson and wing backs?
Also one other probably dumb question- might Collier come into consideration if he’s available? A bit late in the day, but he is a different kind of forward option again…
I find myself unconvinced by either Garbett or McCowatt in the playoff, despite their obvious skills.
Kirwan - best foreign player or best foreign RB, in his Serie C regional Div? NZP will know.
But certainly his last club game with 2 goals, he was on fire. Padova still a chance of automatic promotion to Serie B.
But not a lot seemingly between Kirwan & Payne (clearly the two AW first choice squad RBs now), and maybe who starts against Costa Rica will be determined by Hay's analysis of what the left side of the Ticos offers. Plus are they likely vulnerable, to quality crossing to the Woodsman in the box.
What's the best bet to break them down, when maybe only 1 goal is needed to get to Qatar.
Kirwan - best foreign player or best foreign RB, in his Serie C regional Div? NZP will know.
But certainly his last club game with 2 goals, he was on fire. Padova still a chance of automatic promotion to Serie B.
But not a lot seemingly between Kirwan & Payne (clearly the two AW first choice squad RBs now), and maybe who starts against Costa Rica will be determined by Hay's analysis of what the left side of the Ticos offers. Plus are they likely vulnerable, to quality crossing to the Woodsman in the box.
What's the best bet to break them down, when maybe only 1 goal is needed to get to Qatar.
Sorry, yep completely messed that up - Kirwan was named best foreign right back (not player) in the entirety of Serie C (not just his division) by Eleven Sports, the league's broadcasting partner.
I trust Kirwan a little more on the ball, but Payne's great too and as mentioned we know what we get with his crosses. Kirwan the better engine, faster, better offensively; Payne great defensively, aerial force, probably a better crosser though both are very advanced. Both incredibly versatile too. I'll be perfectly happy either way, tbh
Kirwan - best foreign player or best foreign RB, in his Serie C regional Div? NZP will know.
But certainly his last club game with 2 goals, he was on fire. Padova still a chance of automatic promotion to Serie B.
But not a lot seemingly between Kirwan & Payne (clearly the two AW first choice squad RBs now), and maybe who starts against Costa Rica will be determined by Hay's analysis of what the left side of the Ticos offers. Plus are they likely vulnerable, to quality crossing to the Woodsman in the box.
What's the best bet to break them down, when maybe only 1 goal is needed to get to Qatar.
Sorry, yep completely messed that up - Kirwan was named best foreign right back (not player) in the entirety of Serie C (not just his division) by Eleven Sports, the league's broadcasting partner.
I trust Kirwan a little more on the ball, but Payne's great too and as mentioned we know what we get with his crosses. Kirwan the better engine, faster, better offensively; Payne great defensively, aerial force, probably a better crosser though both are very advanced. Both incredibly versatile too. I'll be perfectly happy either way, tbh
as far as full/wing backs are concerned we are blessed with 4 very good options in De Vries, Cacacae, Kirwan and Payne. Each different in the skillsets but the basics of getting forward and delivering a decent cross to the woodsman is fulfilled by all 4.
I'm not sure how tall the back 3/4 of Costa Rica are but for me this is the key route to causing issues with Grieve sniping around for a poor clearance.
A quick scan over their squad and it looks like the defenders are mainly 30+ and under 6ft in height, Wood at 6'3'' certainly has an advantage.
as far as full/wing backs are concerned we are blessed with 4 very good options in De Vries, Cacacae, Kirwan and Payne. Each different in the skillsets but the basics of getting forward and delivering a decent cross to the woodsman is fulfilled by all 4.
I'm not sure how tall the back 3/4 of Costa Rica are but for me this is the key route to causing issues with Grieve sniping around for a poor clearance.
A quick scan over their squad and it looks like the defenders are mainly 30+ and under 6ft in height, Wood at 6'3'' certainly has an advantage.
Also with Bell and Singh AWs have 2 very good corner/free kick takers.
AV’s early analysis shows that recently CR like to sit deep, and happy to have less than 40% possession. Even at home against 10 man Canada.
So a rare occasion maybe for the AWs against a higher ranked team, where they have more of the ball.
But Ticos have been in good form last few windows, so what they are doing has been working for them.
I think we are personally going to set up with a back 3 of Reid, Boxall and Tuiloma. Tuiloma is in good form, and offers arguably our strongest aerial threat. Has a great leap and excellent timing. Also, he offers another option as a set piece taker.
Payne gets the nod as RWB, mainly for his defensive prowess as we will need to be able to shut down their counters, so being positionally astute is vital. Cacace starts on the other sides. De vries was excellent against the Solomons.
In the middle you have Bell and Stemenic sitting as 6's. Both have good engines and cover the ground, plus can pick a pass. Singh in front of them finding pockets of space.
Wood starts clearly.
Grieve gets the other nod. He seems to make the most intelligent runs of the other possible forwards we have, and with Singh I think we have a player who can pick the pass to those runs.
Tough call and I can see someone like Barbs getting a start as well just with the energy he brings and the ability to defend from the front, but still offer a threat.
Was suggesting the 442 as a tactical back up, if plan A doesn’t work? We mostly played 433 in qualifiers or 352? We focused on width and crossing with Kosta /Champness/ Just/Rogerson and wing backs?
Also one other probably dumb question- might Collier come into consideration if he’s available? A bit late in the day, but he is a different kind of forward option again…
I find myself unconvinced by either Garbett or McCowatt in the playoff, despite their obvious skills.
I shouldn't even type this (though it did happen in 2017 verus Peru), but if Wood was injured, only then would Collier be near a 23 man squad. As without the Woodsman, the forward line starts to look hobbit like. I guess Champness and to a degree De Jong excepted.
Was suggesting the 442 as a tactical back up, if plan A doesn’t work? We mostly played 433 in qualifiers or 352? We focused on width and crossing with Kosta /Champness/ Just/Rogerson and wing backs?
Also one other probably dumb question- might Collier come into consideration if he’s available? A bit late in the day, but he is a different kind of forward option again…
I find myself unconvinced by either Garbett or McCowatt in the playoff, despite their obvious skills.
I shouldn't even type this (though it did happen in 2017 verus Peru), but if Wood was injured, only then would Collier be near a 23 man squad. As without the Woodsman, the forward line starts to look hobbit like. I guess Champness and to a degree De Jong excepted.
Yeah I think Grieve, Waine, Barbarouses, Rojas, Champness, De Jong and McCowatt are ahead of Collier in the striking ranks at the moment (even if most of them aren't dedicated centre forwards) Edit: Plus Rogerson and Just, although they're even less centre forwards than the others mentioned
Was suggesting the 442 as a tactical back up, if plan A doesn’t work? We mostly played 433 in qualifiers or 352? We focused on width and crossing with Kosta /Champness/ Just/Rogerson and wing backs?
Also one other probably dumb question- might Collier come into consideration if he’s available? A bit late in the day, but he is a different kind of forward option again…
I find myself unconvinced by either Garbett or McCowatt in the playoff, despite their obvious skills.
I shouldn't even type this (though it did happen in 2017 verus Peru), but if Wood was injured, only then would Collier be near a 23 man squad. As without the Woodsman, the forward line starts to look hobbit like. I guess Champness and to a degree De Jong excepted.
June is two months away, anything can happen in that time, if Collier is sitting on 13 goals by then I think he’d have to be there. Of course, in the Covid age anyone is a rat test away from missing a one-off game as well, so in that regard it was quite beneficial that the hand was forced into developing depth the last week or so.
Given Costa Rica’s possession and goal scoring stats in qualifying, they’d probably be happy to give us the ball, and then rely on Navas to spring them forward on the counter. In that case 3atb is probably beneficial, it allows you to overlap out wide, without leaving the defence 1v2 or 2v2. There’s a chance that using the formation against the islands was a double-bluff, but I doubt it.
I think it’ll be the 3-4-3, but it depends on how much Singh will be accommodated for. To play him centrally, then you’ll probably have to go 4-3-3, but he can probably play either side of wide forward role in a 3-4-3. He’s not really an out-and-out winger, so I’d be tempted to have him on the right where he can cut in as a shooting and playmaking threat, and have the wingback provide the width.
The other side of the three is anyone’s guess. Any of Rojas, Barbarouses, Just, McCowatt, Grieve are probably the top 5 contenders, and it’ll be tight. Depends on what will be wanted, whether you want a right-footer cutting in as a goal threat (Rojas, McCowatt), a left-footed winger delivering (Just), or someone to play in close to Wood as an auxiliary striker (Barbarouses, Grieve).
Central midfield will be a question of fitness around Thomas, if he can play then Stamenic would probably unfortunately miss out to him and Bell. He’s off contract at the end of this season, so I’m not sure if that means his gametime will be limited as their season finishes, or if he’ll be in amongst it when fit. If he is kinda frozen out, that could count against him having to slot straight into a massive game, but of course it remains to be seen. Different scenario to Reid, I don’t see him sitting as a free agent to keep himself fresh if we do win.
Sail vs Marinovic is an interesting battle, I’m kinda surprised that I’ve seen almost unanimous calls for Sail. It’d be a massive call to drop the guy who’s been first choice for the last 7 years out of the blue for the biggest game since 2010. He’s only conceded 4 goals under Hay, and 3 of those were against Ireland in 2019. Sail's been good for the Phoenix, but the reality is, everyone here is watching those games every week, whereas no one is watching Marinovic so it’s hard to compare. It’d be similar to the Phoenix dropping in AP as first choice for a finals match after Sail played the whole season.
Centre-back looks like it’s probably a battle between Boxall and Pijnaker for the third spot. Reid starts, and I think Tuiloma cemented his spot this week, so it’ll be down to experience vs lack of. Pijnaker is very promising, but missed out on gametime at both Rio Ave and Helsingør, and is now only getting starts at Sligo. Take it with a grain of salt, but the Irish league is ranked 40th by UEFA coefficient, immediately below Kosovo, Latvia, Luxembourg and Finland. That being said, if you include the Olympics, no player has played more minutes under Hay since Covid than Pijnaker, and continuity is a big factor in momentum. Boxall is a senior member at Minnesota, who have been in the MLS playoffs the last two seasons, though he has featured little under Hay. He has very much been there done that though, he’s played at the Confeds and against Peru in 2017, and experience is pretty key in a young team. I think he’s below Tuiloma though, and being a right-footer could count against, and he’s probably not as progressive as Pijnaker is. Another tough shout.
Right wingback is probably another toss-of-a-coin position. Kirwan and Payne are pretty evenly matched, as far as I’ve seen, though Payne seems the more defensive. In Doha they’ve basically swapped minutes, so there’s no real indication as who is the favourite there. Payne could be favourite simply for conservatism, but playing a back 3 allows you a bit less defensive responsibility, especially if Costa Rica are happy to concede possession.
My 11 would be, assuming everyone’s form tracks and injuries stay clear:
Was suggesting the 442 as a tactical back up, if plan A doesn’t work? We mostly played 433 in qualifiers or 352? We focused on width and crossing with Kosta /Champness/ Just/Rogerson and wing backs?
Also one other probably dumb question- might Collier come into consideration if he’s available? A bit late in the day, but he is a different kind of forward option again…
I find myself unconvinced by either Garbett or McCowatt in the playoff, despite their obvious skills.
I shouldn't even type this (though it did happen in 2017 verus Peru), but if Wood was injured, only then would Collier be near a 23 man squad. As without the Woodsman, the forward line starts to look hobbit like. I guess Champness and to a degree De Jong excepted.
June is two months away, anything can happen in that time, if Collier is sitting on 13 goals by then I think he’d have to be there. Of course, in the Covid age anyone is a rat test away from missing a one-off game as well, so in that regard it was quite beneficial that the hand was forced into developing depth the last week or so.
Given Costa Rica’s possession and goal scoring stats in qualifying, they’d probably be happy to give us the ball, and then rely on Navas to spring them forward on the counter. In that case 3atb is probably beneficial, it allows you to overlap out wide, without leaving the defence 1v2 or 2v2. There’s a chance that using the formation against the islands was a double-bluff, but I doubt it.
I think it’ll be the 3-4-3, but it depends on how much Singh will be accommodated for. To play him centrally, then you’ll probably have to go 4-3-3, but he can probably play either side of wide forward role in a 3-4-3. He’s not really an out-and-out winger, so I’d be tempted to have him on the right where he can cut in as a shooting and playmaking threat, and have the wingback provide the width.
The other side of the three is anyone’s guess. Any of Rojas, Barbarouses, Just, McCowatt, Grieve are probably the top 5 contenders, and it’ll be tight. Depends on what will be wanted, whether you want a right-footer cutting in as a goal threat (Rojas, McCowatt), a left-footed winger delivering (Just), or someone to play in close to Wood as an auxiliary striker (Barbarouses, Grieve).
Central midfield will be a question of fitness around Thomas, if he can play then Stamenic would probably unfortunately miss out to him and Bell. He’s off contract at the end of this season, so I’m not sure if that means his gametime will be limited as their season finishes, or if he’ll be in amongst it when fit. If he is kinda frozen out, that could count against him having to slot straight into a massive game, but of course it remains to be seen. Different scenario to Reid, I don’t see him sitting as a free agent to keep himself fresh if we do win.
Sail vs Marinovic is an interesting battle, I’m kinda surprised that I’ve seen almost unanimous calls for Sail. It’d be a massive call to drop the guy who’s been first choice for the last 7 years out of the blue for the biggest game since 2010. He’s only conceded 4 goals under Hay, and 3 of those were against Ireland in 2019. Sail's been good for the Phoenix, but the reality is, everyone here is watching those games every week, whereas no one is watching Marinovic so it’s hard to compare. It’d be similar to the Phoenix dropping in AP as first choice for a finals match after Sail played the whole season.
Centre-back looks like it’s probably a battle between Boxall and Pijnaker for the third spot. Reid starts, and I think Tuiloma cemented his spot this week, so it’ll be down to experience vs lack of. Pijnaker is very promising, but missed out on gametime at both Rio Ave and Helsingør, and is now only getting starts at Sligo. Take it with a grain of salt, but the Irish league is ranked 40th by UEFA coefficient, immediately below Kosovo, Latvia, Luxembourg and Finland. That being said, if you include the Olympics, no player has played more minutes under Hay since Covid than Pijnaker, and continuity is a big factor in momentum. Boxall is a senior member at Minnesota, who have been in the MLS playoffs the last two seasons, though he has featured little under Hay. He has very much been there done that though, he’s played at the Confeds and against Peru in 2017, and experience is pretty key in a young team. I think he’s below Tuiloma though, and being a right-footer could count against, and he’s probably not as progressive as Pijnaker is. Another tough shout.
Right wingback is probably another toss-of-a-coin position. Kirwan and Payne are pretty evenly matched, as far as I’ve seen, though Payne seems the more defensive. In Doha they’ve basically swapped minutes, so there’s no real indication as who is the favourite there. Payne could be favourite simply for conservatism, but playing a back 3 allows you a bit less defensive responsibility, especially if Costa Rica are happy to concede possession.
My 11 would be, assuming everyone’s form tracks and injuries stay clear:
Marinovic;
Tuiloma, Reid, Pijnaker;
Payne, Bell, Thomas, Cacace;
Singh, Wood, Rojas;
Like that team and there’s def a few spots which are going to be tight/fitness dependent.
Agree on Marinovic as well. Oil Sail is in beast mode atm but at the end of the day Marinovic has the international experience & consistently you need for a one off high stakes game imo. He’s played in both Confeds Cup and the games against Peru and has never let NZ down. Think he has to start.
But I’d have Oli as undisputed number 2 and am loving his stuff for the Nix.
I don't envy the selectors. I mocked up a 23 man squad using the 5-3-2 / 3-4-3 formation with two players in each spot plus an extra goalkeeper and realised I did not included S.Singh. I figured I needed to include him somewhere so took out a spare CB and added an extra midfield. That left me with (starters top line, subs bottom line) ...
Tough picks... Sail over Marinovic, don't forget Sail replaced Marinovic as Phoenix #1 last season. Sutton over de Vries, Sutton more of a 1-1 replacement of Cacace if needed, and can also cover midfield Rogerson as the last wide forward, I think he has that extra bit of pace to stretch a field. Lewis or Thomas to replace Howieson if they are fit.
I don't think Singh fits into the formation we used for the last few games as I don't think he is as effective as the others in those wide forward positions when we don't have the ball. If we stick to that formation, I only see him being a sub to change it to a 4-2-3-1, 4-2-1-3 or 4-1-2-1-2 when we are a goal down and take off a CB.
I feel we need to have a tonne of goal threats from all over the pitch so while they double mark Wood and try to cut off his supply Singh, Bell or Stamenic smash some howitzers or Kirwan knocks one in at the back post or Libby dribbles 3 defenders and taps in or anyone gets some space and does their thing and we’re up 3-0 and comfortable…
Marco Rojas is yet to be involved with the All Whites since their restart last October. He wasn’t released by Melbourne Victory outside the March international window for the start of Oceania qualifying, then wasn’t wanted during it, left in a similar position to Boxall, as Hay limited the number of late arrivals in camp. Hay has said he views Rojas as a midfielder more than a forward and whether there’s a need or a place for him in June might depend on the wider availability and injury situation.
If the formation means Singh has to be a sub, that's the wrong formation.
Absolutely this. ONC showed us they we created bugger all through the middle channel. If Costa Rica play defensively we need someone in the middle to offer a point of difference rather than relying on delivery from wide areas.
And I don't know how anyone doesn't pick Sail. In the form of his life, better all round keeper. If CR play on the counter do you want Marinovic charging out if his box unsuccessfully like he did during his last season here. Yeah he may have more big game experience, but we're playing at a neutral ground with potentially bugger all fans. By that logic he'd start until he retires. Makes no sense.
Marco Rojas is yet to be involved with the All Whites since their restart last October. He wasn’t released by Melbourne Victory outside the March international window for the start of Oceania qualifying, then wasn’t wanted during it, left in a similar position to Boxall, as Hay limited the number of late arrivals in camp. Hay has said he views Rojas as a midfielder more than a forward and whether there’s a need or a place for him in June might depend on the wider availability and injury situation.
This just reeks of internal culture clashes with Rojas and some of the wider squad. Or maybe I'm connecting dots that don't exist.. It's just a strange take by Hay considering that Rojas at his best is still arguably one of our most skillfull and dangerous attacking players.
(If all of our best players are available and fit, only five who played in the OFC final will make it)
Sail
Payne Reid M. Boxall Cacace
Thomas Bell Stamenic Singh
Wood Grieve
Leaves some good options on the bench like Rojas, Barbarouses, Tuiloma, Just, MacCowatt, Pijnaker, de Vries, Champness, Garbett, Kirwin and Marinovic. I prefer Michael Boxall to Tuiloma because he's a more established player both in MLS and for the AW's. Grieve up front with Wood because he impressed me in the OFC qualifiers.
(If all of our best players are available and fit, only five who played in the OFC final will make it)
Sail
Payne Reid M. Boxall Cacace
Thomas Bell Stamenic Singh
Wood Grieve
Leaves some good options on the bench like Rojas, Barbarouses, Tuiloma, Just, MacCowatt, Pijnaker, de Vries, Champness, Garbett, Kirwin and Marinovic. I prefer Michael Boxall to Tuiloma because he's a more established player both in MLS and for the AW's. Grieve up front with Wood because he impressed me in the OFC qualifiers.
On paper this team is not worse than the Costa Rica team no matter what anyone says.
If I remember correctly when Rojas was breaking through as a pro he was holding off committing to NZ vs his eligibility to play for Chile. People have their opinions but for me that tells me he's always been in it for himself, a position only reinforced by the attitude to make himself unavailable for games against the islands
If I remember correctly when Rojas was breaking through as a pro he was holding off committing to NZ vs his eligibility to play for Chile. People have their opinions but for me that tells me he's always been in it for himself, a position only reinforced by the attitude to make himself unavailable for games against the islands
If the formation means Singh has to be a sub, that's the wrong formation.
Absolutely this. ONC showed us they we created bugger all through the middle channel. If Costa Rica play defensively we need someone in the middle to offer a point of difference rather than relying on delivery from wide areas.
From anecdotes via Costa Rica fans and watching a few games myself, they seem to be very vulnerable to teams who attack using width. May just play into our hands
Stefan is the better all round keeper just as he was many years ago when you were blowing up Gleesons tyres.
Basically our chances of going to this World Cup hinge upon him doing what he has always done for the all whites and wood pinching a goal.
It’s that simple
2ndBest
And I don't know how anyone doesn't pick Sail. In the form of his life, better all round keeper. If CR play on the counter do you want Marinovic charging out if his box unsuccessfully like he did during his last season here. Yeah he may have more big game experience, but we're playing at a neutral ground with potentially bugger all fans. By that logic he'd start until he retires. Makes no sense.
Sail is in fantastic form. He’s on the way, too a good overseas offer.
But Marinovic did nothing wrong at the OFC tourney. He’s well known to likes of Tuiloma, M Boxall and Reid. Sail far less so. Boxall snr hasn’t played a game of football with Sail I imagine
Your keeper is your defence organiser, the voice at the back. Long standing combinations have some value. Tough on Sail, but I just think he’s come in a bit too late and so Hay will stay with Marinovic. But hopefully they have a 2 week camp before the Playoff (though MLS won’t come in until the window starts) and Sail can push his case. I reckon Reid will have a big say on which keeper starts
My preferred starting XI, formation, and 23/30 man squads. Only reason Marinovic starts is because of his greater familiarity playing with the backline - I could easily be convinced that Sail should start and based purely on form I'd argue that he should. Note that this is a dream squad and it's likely that some of these players (most notably Thomas) will not be fit in time. I decided to pick players that could in a best case scenario be fit and ready to play (that's why Thomas, Singh and Lewis make the 30 man squad but Rufer doesn't. If literally everyone was fit I'd pick Rufer over Howieson for the 30 man squad).
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