All Whites, Ferns, and other international teams

The final 26 Panel for WC. PEOPLE'S PICK

344 replies · 17,013 views
17 Aug 10:40
Watched 2-3 years of All Whites attack and no one’s cemented their position. No one has dominated and become indispensable. I like the way both these guys go direct at speed, and yes once or twice Randall has used pace to get in front and strength to hold off a player. I’m impressed by the way they’ve played. I think he also played well at age group tournaments iirc? 

Outside Just and Old, no one’s done anything good with any consistency, and even he hasn’t been what you’d call a go-to player. And outside Wood, no one has achieved great feats at a high club level.

I think there’s plenty of room to challenge for a place in the squad and form and confidence is always worth looking at. I’m certainly looking at the happier side of the penny on their achievements so far, but you got to be optimistic to get through a WC group. 


17 Aug 12:02 · edited 17 Aug 12:03 · History
Randall played at the U17 WC in 2019, with 1 start in 3 pool games. No goals.
Covid meant he didn't go to an U20 WC.

Went to last year's Paris Olympics, but only got 44 mins (no starts) over the 3 pool games. That's despite scoring against the USA in the 2nd pool game. 
Did he have an injury?
Likes of OVH, Herdman, Gillion & Lachlan Bayliss all got at least one start. Garbett of course was captain.

Gillion and Randall, will need some unavailabilities to get picked for the Sept window (Socceroos games). And will need very productive, standout ALM campaigns to have any chance of going to the World Cup.
18 Aug 02:32 · edited 18 Aug 02:32 · History
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/360793962/race-all-whites-world-cup-places-heats-after-unsettling-transfer-window

He (Bazeley) has also indicated that he and his staff are “tracking 64 players” – almost three times as many as they will be able to call on next June.

Stuff's best guess as to who is on Darren Bazeley's All Whites long list

Goalkeepers (10): Max Crocombe, Henry Gray, Alby Kelly-Heald, Scott Morris, Alex Paulsen, Oli Sail, Kees Sims, Nik Tzanev, Joe Wallis, Michael Woud

Right backs (7): Callan Elliot, Dane Ingham, Niko Kirwan, Xuan Loke, Tim Payne, Storm Roux, Bill Tuiloma

Centre backs (9): Kyle Adams, Tyler Bindon, Michael Boxall, Isaac Hughes, Nando Pijnaker, Corban Piper, Tommy Smith, George Stanger, Finn Surman

Left backs (7): Liberato Cacace, Francis de Vries, Lukas Kelly-Heald, James McGarry, Sam Sutton, Dalton Wilkins, Deklan Wynne

Midfielders (15): Lachlan Bayliss, Joe Bell, Jacob Borgnis, Matt Dibley-Dias, Elijah Just, Matt Garbett, Jay Herdman, Cam Howieson, Ben Old, Fin Roa Conchie, Alex Rufer, Matt Sheridan, Sarpreet Singh, Marko Stamenić, Ryan Thomas

Forwards (16): Kosta Barbarouses, Riley Bidois, Luke Brooke-Smith, Andre de Jong, Moses Dyer, Ben Gibson, Liam Gillion, Alex Greive, Max Mata, Callum McCowatt, Jesse Randall, Logan Rogerson, Oskar van Hattum, Ben Waine, Nathan Walker, Chris Wood
24 Aug 18:32
This list really does show the lack of depth at FWD should something…… well I’m not even going to finish that sentence 
GK, CB, LB depth very nice
RB has options but outside of FWD is definitely our weakest position.
The only FWD outside of Wood playing regularly as a starter is McCowatt, but he’s usually more a wide player then a central striker (apologies if in that I’m in correct) could he fit that spot for us if needed? Is it worth in these windows giving him a run there to see?
24 Aug 19:20
YellowAndBlack
This list really does show the lack of depth at FWD should something…… well I’m not even going to finish that sentence 
GK, CB, LB depth very nice
RB has options but outside of FWD is definitely our weakest position.
The only FWD outside of Wood playing regularly as a starter is McCowatt, but he’s usually more a wide player then a central striker (apologies if in that I’m in correct) could he fit that spot for us if needed? Is it worth in these windows giving him a run there to see?
Kosta should be starting once the season begins.
Annual finals disappointment enthusiast.

25 Aug 20:46
My 23:
GK: Crocombe, Tzanev Paulsen
DEF: A Rightback (there must be someone in Europe with a Kiwi mum or dad/grandad - the amount of Kiwis on OE, or playing rugby, or something.....jesus....there must be one....), Payne, de Vries, Cacace, Bindon, Surman, Boxall, Stanger
MID: Bell, Rufer, Stamenic, Garbett, Thomas, Singh
WING/FW: Just, Old, McCowatt, Wood, Kosta, Waine or Gibson. 
25 Aug 21:40
I think the back 5 is pretty much nailed on. I think the midfield 3 is nailed on too with Stamenić, Bell and Thomas ahead of them.

The two big questions are the wide spots. I think Just is pretty close to nailing one of them down tbh. He’s been outstanding in Scotland and although I think can he kick it up a notch in an All Whites shirt he’s still shone more than his competitors. He simply makes things happen.

That Left side position is the biggest in question I think. You have McCowatt, Old, and Garbett that are jostling for it. 

McCowatt is probably ahead of the two right now but that can change very quickly. 

9/10 starting spots are pretty much locked up maybe you could question right back but I don’t think we have anyone better than Payne. 

The rest are all fighting to be no1 backups in their positions. Who will be the backup strikers, midfielders and full backs. 

Some great debates to have over the next year to come. 

Can the likes of LBS, Ben Gibson, Randall or Gillion force their way In? 

Owen Parker Price getting promoted to Sweden’s top flight and playing regularly would have to justify his selection right? 

Does Matthew Dibley Dias stand out in League 2 this season and challenge Rufer for his spot? 

Can Tuiloma and Roux challenge for the right back spot or could De Vries’s crossing ability force Bazeley to rethink the formation to get him in the team.




25 Aug 22:45 · edited 26 Aug 00:37 · History
Remember everyone, there have been strong indications that there will be 26 player squads, not 23
14 Oct 23:33
Yet to watch the Norway game, being an ugly 2am midweek KO here in QLD. 

But from both games, comments, and Baze's subs feel some more movement re the fringe WC candidates, and their WC chances.

Players to advance themselves - Waine & OPP 
Players who didn't - De Jong 
Neutral - LKH, Tuiloma, Stanger, Smith & Tzanev.

I'd almost lump Tzanev with ADJ, but that's more off Nikko T not going well at Newport, and Sims, Gray plus Sail hot on his heels.

Seems like Waine did better this window, than the low expectations we had for him.

You'd imagine all the ALM guys come into the picture for the November window, so Baze's selection for Colombia and Ecuador should be a strong measure of his likely WC squad.
15 Oct 00:21 · edited 15 Oct 00:22 · History
I think Waine needs to move into the neutral lane.

He pressed hard but that’s about it and to be honest is the minimum expected.



Auckland will rise once more

15 Oct 02:52
AucklandPhoenix
I think Waine needs to move into the neutral lane.

He pressed hard but that’s about it and to be honest is the minimum expected.



Did you watch any of the short training videos they shared... he looked good. Mobile, shot well.

Hard to judge a striker who has in recent years played for teams that don't score goals!
15 Oct 02:55
No, I don’t watch the training videos just the matches. 

Auckland will rise once more

15 Oct 04:47 · edited 15 Oct 05:39 · History
What this window has proved is that Garbett and Waine are two of Baze's faves. Both got more game time than they deserved. Apart from this I was really happy with the selections made. 

Really glad that most of our best XI got lots of minutes in both games, we need to start bedding in our best XI and giving them as much time together as possible to gel, though if you believed a bunch of people on this forum, Baze has been stupid to do so and should be resting everyone to make their club teams happy. 

Edit: actually, in fairness to Garbett, with Just missing, only McCowatt should have been playing more than he did and for all I know that was a fitness issue. 
15 Oct 05:30
imanixsupporter
What this window has proved is that Garbett and Waine are two of Baze's faves. Both got more game time than they deserved. Apart from this I was really happy with the selections made. 

Really glad that most of our best XI got lots of minutes in both games, we need to start bedding in our best XI and giving them as much time together as possible to gel, though if you believed a bunch of people on this forum, Baze has been stupid to do so and should be resting everyone to make their club teams happy. 
Try again thats not at all what some  people are saying. They are saying in some cases the players clubs may have put requests for players to have restricted minutes. Yet for some reason you seem to think Baze should be ignoring those requests and just use player however he wants
You dont seem to realise the clubs pay these guys wages if you dont think they will exert pressure on a player if their wishes are ignored your in dreamland. 
Not sure why seem to want to risk a players future involvement for a friendly. Plenty of evidence around the world of players developing injuries just to avoid games but not according to you.   

GET YOUR SHIRTS OFF FOR THE BOYS

15 Oct 05:40 · edited 15 Oct 05:47 · History
I was pleasantly surprised 37 year old Boxall started. But as AV mentioned pre game the 5 day break between the Poland and Norway matches, made it a higher chance Boxy would start. The Norwegians coming off only a 3 day break from their Israel game.

Minnesota have a big game away at the Galaxy, Sunday our time. Final round Decision Day in the MLS. Maybe Boxy is just flying direct Oslo to LA, without the extra Minny-LA leg?? I guess he knows his body and what he's capable of. As others have said he continues to be truly top class, despite his age.
15 Oct 05:43 · edited 15 Oct 05:47 · History
I reject the premise. Clubs should not be and have no right to be asking for restricted minutes if the player is fully fit. National team medical teams in conjunction with players can make their own decisions about how many minutes players should play in order to not be dangerously overloading players. 

Every club wants their internationals to play as few minutes in windows as possible, unless they are short on recent match time and need to build fitness/sharpness ASAP. But that's too bad, it is the international window. If there isn't a significantly increased chance of injury we should be playing our best players as much as possible in windows. 
15 Oct 18:19
imanixsupporter
I reject the premise. Clubs should not be and have no right to be asking for restricted minutes if the player is fully fit. National team medical teams in conjunction with players can make their own decisions about how many minutes players should play in order to not be dangerously overloading players. 

Every club wants their internationals to play as few minutes in windows as possible, unless they are short on recent match time and need to build fitness/sharpness ASAP. But that's too bad, it is the international window. If there isn't a significantly increased chance of injury we should be playing our best players as much as possible in windows. 

just because you reject it doesnt mean it isnt happening.

Queenslander 3x a year.

15 Oct 20:15 · edited 15 Oct 20:18 · History
I understand the phenomenon of clubs unethically exerting pressure on players to not do things they are perfectly entitled to do - I am questioning the subsurvient perspective a lot of people have about it. No club has ever publicly complained about how much NZF have been playing their players - this suggests to me that NZF are potentially being too accomodating.  There is less the fear from club discontent than people imagine. 

You basically have people on this forum saying when somebody suggests Boxall should start two games in a window - we can't do that!!!! We can't risk the wrath of the mighty Minnesota United!!! It is this attitude that annoys me. 
15 Oct 20:27 · edited 15 Oct 20:27 · History
I think you're reading people comments way too seriously. As an international manager, Baze has to manage multiple facets each friendly window. 
Player welfare
Club instructions/requests
Squad rotation/experimentation
plus more I'm sure. Whilst we all agree that it would be great to play our best XI all the time, this simply isnt the reality of a friendly window, or international footy.
Baze needs to see others in Boxal's position for depth and experience, his club may have said 60mins per game please and then there is the players fitness and condition to factor in.
We are simply saying that you're request/demand to play our best players all the time is an unrealistic expectation, especially in a friendly window.
In the WC it'll be totally different


Queenslander 3x a year.

15 Oct 20:30 · edited 15 Oct 20:30 · History
People saying we shouldn't play players so much because we are playing friendlies also annoys me. Most nations in the world get plenty of high quality competitive games and can afford to treat friendlies as that and rotate more. We are different, we play almost no high quality competitive games so we need to treat our friendlies more seriously than other nations. People don't seem to be taking this into account but they should.
15 Oct 20:58
imanixsupporter
People saying we shouldn't play players so much because we are playing friendlies also annoys me. Most nations in the world get plenty of high quality competitive games and can afford to treat friendlies as that and rotate more. We are different, we play almost no high quality competitive games so we need to treat our friendlies more seriously than other nations. People don't seem to be taking this into account but they should.
Yet again dont think many are saying we shouldnt play players. I get what your saying but if a club asks for a player to be used for restricted minutes. It would be plain stupid to just ignore that and then expect next time you asked for that player to be released its all okay.
You may not like it but the clubs rightly have a degree of control those they are paying. Doubt there would be many players who would risk their futures by going against clubs wishes for what at the end of the day are friendlies. WC qualifiers are are different thing all together.

GET YOUR SHIRTS OFF FOR THE BOYS

15 Oct 21:20
I know of no instance this year (other than the three obvious examples with Wood, the first two of which were driven by him more so than his club) where starting XI decisions have been made as a result of club requests. The centre back rotation in June and September was because the All Whites have three standout centre backs.
15 Oct 21:27
Thought these were a good couple of windows and just some notes from me (just my opinion fully understand others won’t agree)
I am a Crocombe fan but I think these last 2 games AP has finally got that number 1 spot.
Waine showed he’s up for it, good press good getting back on D, held up play well to bring others in, intelligent runs it’s just unfortunate he’s not getting a go at club level and like Wood right now the goals just ain’t coming.
OPP really took his chance with limited minutes.
Boxy And Surman are clearly the CB pairing but they will need to watch over their shoulders as I’m sure the others will be nipping at them.
So my 23+3 WCS if the squad had to be selected today would be.
GK- AP, Crocombe, (Nik)
RB- Payne, Big Bill 
LB- Libby, (McGarry)
CB- Boxy, Surman, Bindon, Stanger
CM- Staminic, Thomas, Bell, Singh, (OPP)
ATK- McCowatt, Just, Old, Garbet.
STK- Wood, Waine, (kosta)
The guys in bracket aren’t locked in for me however if it’s 26 man squad.

Rufer- it’s a toss up between Rufer and OPP for me in a 23 man squad for me but in a 26 they both go.

FDV- gets a trip in 26 at the expense of Pjanker (yes realise he’s currently injured but even if he wasn’t he misses) as having  Big Bill he can cover center back if needed.

Rogerson- gets in over Mata ( injured and no club) and De Jong
 
But the squad isn’t selected today so a good season and people coming back from injury could shake things up.
Sims getting a run of games could steal the 3rd GK spot plus we will have a kiwi keeper definitely for AFC and maybe AkH could come back and be a starter for the Nix.
LB- I’m hoping for a big season from McGarry or Wilkins coming back firing from injury maybe even Loke if the nix play him on the left to knock FDV out of the squad, I’m not a FDV fan and thought he was poor in the 1st 3 games but had improved by the 4th. The flip side totally appreciate some people feel this way about Payne.
Sorry about any spelling mistakes etc, lost my glasses and can’t be bothered trying to fix a blurry screen.



15 Oct 21:28 · edited 15 Oct 23:50 · History
imanixsupporter
I understand the phenomenon of clubs unethically exerting pressure on players to not do things they are perfectly entitled to do - I am questioning the subsurvient perspective a lot of people have about it. No club has ever publicly complained about how much NZF have been playing their players - this suggests to me that NZF are potentially being too accomodating.  There is less the fear from club discontent than people imagine. 

You basically have people on this forum saying when somebody suggests Boxall should start two games in a window - we can't do that!!!! We can't risk the wrath of the mighty Minnesota United!!! It is this attitude that annoys me. 

Minny didn’t allow Boxall to go to the Tokyo Olympics as an o/a player. Heath their coach was openly grumpy about the prospect

Danny said the Italian clubs were very difficult re getting access to Libby and Kirwan in 2022. Noting the AWs did yes play in Jan 2022 (not a window) and part of the March 2022 OFC WC qualifying tourney was outside that window

Dyche at Burnley used to make subtle remarks about Wood heading off on international duty

But much of club v country stuff happens quietly. You don’t think Man City have been talking to Norway, about Haaland’s workload?
15 Oct 22:34 · edited 15 Oct 22:35 · History
I was a little bit surprised about wood however.

We have for some time had issues figuring out how to serve him properly.

Thought with games in his backyard in Europe, it was the ideal time to start him in both games - be it sixty minutes only in each.

Didn’t get the subbing on with 8 mins to go in game one.

Auckland will rise once more

15 Oct 22:54
Wood apparently came into the window with a bit of a niggle.
15 Oct 23:46
good to hear. Hope we continue to see less rotation in November, from a starting team perspective. I think 25 minute cameos should be enough to see what those challenging for starting spots can do
andrewvoerman
I know of no instance this year (other than the three obvious examples with Wood, the first two of which were driven by him more so than his club) where starting XI decisions have been made as a result of club requests. The centre back rotation in June and September was because the All Whites have three standout centre backs.
16 Oct 00:38
YellowAndBlack
Thought these were a good couple of windows and just some notes from me (just my opinion fully understand others won’t agree)
I am a Crocombe fan but I think these last 2 games AP has finally got that number 1 spot.
Waine showed he’s up for it, good press good getting back on D, held up play well to bring others in, intelligent runs it’s just unfortunate he’s not getting a go at club level and like Wood right now the goals just ain’t coming.
OPP really took his chance with limited minutes.
Boxy And Surman are clearly the CB pairing but they will need to watch over their shoulders as I’m sure the others will be nipping at them.
So my 23+3 WCS if the squad had to be selected today would be.
GK- AP, Crocombe, (Nik)
RB- Payne, Big Bill 
LB- Libby, (McGarry)
CB- Boxy, Surman, Bindon, Stanger
CM- Staminic, Thomas, Bell, Singh, (OPP)
ATK- McCowatt, Just, Old, Garbet.
STK- Wood, Waine, (kosta)
The guys in bracket aren’t locked in for me however if it’s 26 man squad.

Rufer- it’s a toss up between Rufer and OPP for me in a 23 man squad for me but in a 26 they both go.

FDV- gets a trip in 26 at the expense of Pjanker (yes realise he’s currently injured but even if he wasn’t he misses) as having  Big Bill he can cover center back if needed.

Rogerson- gets in over Mata ( injured and no club) and De Jong
 
But the squad isn’t selected today so a good season and people coming back from injury could shake things up.
Sims getting a run of games could steal the 3rd GK spot plus we will have a kiwi keeper definitely for AFC and maybe AkH could come back and be a starter for the Nix.
LB- I’m hoping for a big season from McGarry or Wilkins coming back firing from injury maybe even Loke if the nix play him on the left to knock FDV out of the squad, I’m not a FDV fan and thought he was poor in the 1st 3 games but had improved by the 4th. The flip side totally appreciate some people feel this way about Payne.
Sorry about any spelling mistakes etc, lost my glasses and can’t be bothered trying to fix a blurry screen.




On and off people have speculated on a bolter coming through to secure a WC spot. Sims, gray, opp, the young striker in aussie whos name dementia made me forget, MDD etc. One bolter already however is Thomas. A year ago no where. Now played last 4 games and looking comfortable at this level. A dramatic return to fitness and the AW. An unexpected return and now injury aside a locked in WC squad place
16 Oct 00:48
Just throwing it out there what will he do if LBS has big A League season which wouldnt surprise me at all.

GET YOUR SHIRTS OFF FOR THE BOYS

16 Oct 01:19 · edited 16 Oct 01:19 · History
I think FdV did more than enough to prove he is our second LB in this window. Wilkins or McGarry or Sutton or LKH will really need to do something amazing to dislodge him. Fortunately for all of them they are young enough to have another go in 2030.
16 Oct 04:51
The concept of playing our best 11 is important - but also problematic.

If we don't rotate at least a little, if there is an injury or two and people have to come in to replace them, having game day experience with the other players can only help.

Baz has got the balance bascially right imo. For example, left Garbett out of the last squad as he needed to settle in at this club, to bringing him in now.

and finally... what a difference Thomas makes, not so much on the park (although he does there) but how it suddenly creates extra depth and options that didn't 'feel' there before.
16 Oct 05:37
imanixsupporter
I think FdV did more than enough to prove he is our second LB in this window. Wilkins or McGarry or Sutton or LKH will really need to do something amazing to dislodge him. Fortunately for all of them they are young enough to have another go in 2030.

Yeah I think baz loves him. But man the team is about 5x better if you swap him for cacace ...
16 Oct 05:44
Captain Wood also a FDV fan. He hit the cross bar off a De Vries ball over the top
16 Oct 05:46
Elemenop
imanixsupporter
I think FdV did more than enough to prove he is our second LB in this window. Wilkins or McGarry or Sutton or LKH will really need to do something amazing to dislodge him. Fortunately for all of them they are young enough to have another go in 2030.

Yeah I think baz loves him. But man the team is about 5x better if you swap him for cacace ...


Yeah but no one is saying De Vries should start ahead of Cacace. He will go as the second choice left back because he is the second best left back we have.

Three for me, and two for them.

16 Oct 06:25
I’m quite satisfied with the backline from this window. You add Cacace back in and we look very solid. Payne is the only weak link but he’s our best option and they’ll be no one overtaking him anytime soon. Surman and Boxall were terrific. AP too. 

Midfield - Stamenić, Thomas and Bell need to start together. We will spend lots of time without the ball at the World Cup and need to be compact in the middle. Bell as the pivot with Stamenić and Thomas as two 8s seems the go for me. Maybe push Stamenić into the No10 role potentially to win the ball higher up the pitch? Either way those 3 are a necessity to all start together. 

Singh and Just playing off the shoulder of Woodsy could be a thought. Old was really solid but lacks that end product I think. The wide positions are definitely a toss up but figuring out that final third is a key work on for the next window. 


16 Oct 07:45
Agree with all of the above. I'd say the squad is basically picked at this point bar injuries. 


16 Oct 08:36
Maybe the bulk of the squad is already picked, but still plenty of uncertainties, especially as we do not even know the squad size yet. 

For me, here is who is on the plane if fit:

GK (2)
Paulsen
Crocombe

DEF (6)
Payne 
Boxall
Surman
Bindon
Cacace
FdV

DM (3)
Stamenic
Thomas
Bell

AM (4):
Just
Singh
McCowatt
Garbett

ST (1)
Wood

That is 16 total, 7 spots left if it is to be a 23 man squad. I think there is serious question marks about everybody else if it is only going to be a squad of 23.

If it is to be 26 then I think you can basically put Tuiloma, Pijnaker, Stanger, Rufer, Old & Kosta on the plane too. Would still leave 4 spots in that scenario, one of which would be a backup keeper, so only 3 more outfield spots for the likes of Waine, Rogerson, Randall, OPP, LBS, Wilkins, de Jong, Mata, Elliot, LKH...

No matter what there are going to be some tough calls to be made by Baze and some very disappointed players when the final squad is announced. 
16 Oct 10:18
imanixsupporter
Maybe the bulk of the squad is already picked, but still plenty of uncertainties, especially as we do not even know the squad size yet. 

For me, here is who is on the plane if fit:

GK (2)
Paulsen
Crocombe

DEF (6)
Payne 
Boxall
Surman
Bindon
Cacace
FdV

DM (3)
Stamenic
Thomas
Bell

AM (4):
Just
Singh
McCowatt
Garbett

ST (1)
Wood

That is 16 total, 7 spots left if it is to be a 23 man squad. I think there is serious question marks about everybody else if it is only going to be a squad of 23.

If it is to be 26 then I think you can basically put Tuiloma, Pijnaker, Stanger, Rufer, Old & Kosta on the plane too. Would still leave 4 spots in that scenario, one of which would be a backup keeper, so only 3 more outfield spots for the likes of Waine, Rogerson, Randall, OPP, LBS, Wilkins, de Jong, Mata, Elliot, LKH...

No matter what there are going to be some tough calls to be made by Baze and some very disappointed players when the final squad is announced. 
 Just FWIW I don't have a 23/26 but FIFA Tournaments require 3 GKs, seen everyone put 2 in, happy adjusting :)
16 Oct 11:34
imanixsupporter
Maybe the bulk of the squad is already picked, but still plenty of uncertainties, especially as we do not even know the squad size yet. 

For me, here is who is on the plane if fit:

GK (2)
Paulsen
Crocombe

DEF (6)
Payne 
Boxall
Surman
Bindon
Cacace
FdV

DM (3)
Stamenic
Thomas
Bell

AM (4):
Just
Singh
McCowatt
Garbett

ST (1)
Wood

That is 16 total, 7 spots left if it is to be a 23 man squad. I think there is serious question marks about everybody else if it is only going to be a squad of 23.

If it is to be 26 then I think you can basically put Tuiloma, Pijnaker, Stanger, Rufer, Old & Kosta on the plane too. Would still leave 4 spots in that scenario, one of which would be a backup keeper, so only 3 more outfield spots for the likes of Waine, Rogerson, Randall, OPP, LBS, Wilkins, de Jong, Mata, Elliot, LKH...

No matter what there are going to be some tough calls to be made by Baze and some very disappointed players when the final squad is announced. 
Agree with all of that, except I think Old is also locked in if fit, and I don't think Stanger is a lock even with a 26-man squad.  He's not yet debuted and is probably around 6th choice CB at this stage. 

Others in the list of maybes (excluding 3rd choice GKs) IMO are Elliot, Roux, Kirwan, Smith, McGarry, Sutton, Dibley-Dias and Gibson. 

Of those I reckon Gibson is the most likely to make it, if he remains the only other eligible striker scoring goals over the next 6 months, and is willing to spurn Aus. 

The others are probably relying on injuries, although the 2nd RB spot could go to any of Wilkins, Tuiloma, Elliot, Roux and Kirwan depending on who's playing regularly and in-form. 
You know we belong together...

16 Oct 12:03
Yipe Old is locked in. 

AV writes about a locked in group of 16 players (if yes all fit) & that excludes FDV, who he's called no 17, ie a very close now to a lock in.