So I was reflecting on my earlier post (in the 2021 Fixtures thread) about how the move to Asia won’t happen. That remains true, but then I got thinking, “What if we brought Asia to us?” Bear with me on this…
New Zealand holds no appeal to Asia (due mainly to size, small market etc), so we can’t move that way, and OFC wouldn’t permit it anyway as it’d be the death knell for Oceania. But what if OFC and NZ actively invited/courted new members to join Oceania? For argument's sake, I’m going to start with the idea of Indonesia, Taiwan, Hong Kong and the Philippines. These 4 all have a border/physical connection with the Pacific Ocean, so technically fit Oceania to start with. None of them are heavy hitters in the Asian scene, so chances are AFC wouldn’t object if they wanted to make the move. It would potentially also mean less travel distance for other Asian countries, so that may also be seen as a plus. But what would be in it for these four countries to join OFC?
Firstly, they’d potentially find Oceania a more realistic competitive level for their national sides. They tend to get pretty much dealt to by the large Asian countries, but the likes of Indonesia might back their chances against the likes of New Zealand and Fiji. Secondly, the proximity factor could be appealing – getting to New Zealand and Pacific countries to play would potentially be easier/faster than the likes of Uzbekistan, Lebanon and North Korea. Thirdly, there’s the possibility of clubs joining in with the Oceania Champions League, which would expand the potential market and audience (and possibly more avenue for success than the Asian Champions League). Fourthly, there is another carrot of the age-group World Cups and Oceania having more than one qualifying spot, which they may feel they have more chance of getting than in Asia (none of these four has ever qualified for U17s, and only Indonesia has made the U20s - that was back in 1979, and for context, they played against a teenaged Maradona!). And fifth, they would potentially see all these avenues as a way of improving and enhancing their own chances globally. Sure, it would mean less chance of playing the likes of the big teams like Japan, South Korea, etc, and they may prefer to stay as the tiny fish in the big pool - but there is also history of being connected to the Oceania region in the past, especially in the cases of Taiwan and Indonesia, and there could potentially be some appeal there to give themselves something approximating a fighting chance.
So what’s in it for us/OFC? Firstly, expanding the membership of the Confederation, with countries that are (no disrespect intended) bigger, more populous and more football orientated than many of the current OFC members is no bad thing. Football is very popular in Indonesia, and has smaller but committed followings in the other suggested countries. A bigger OFC membership aids the Confederation’s credibility on several fronts, which could help in the longer term when trying to argue for more favourable arrangements with FIFA. Secondly, by expanding the pool of potential OFC opponents, we’re adding to the potential market/TV audience for things like the Oceania Nations Cup, Youth level championships, and World Cup qualifiers. If the number of people watching the OFC Nations Cup suddenly jumps by several million because Indonesia and Taiwan are involved, that has numerous benefits for all involved. Thirdly, it offers more development experiences for the other (non-NZ) members of OFC – one of their biggest challenges is getting fixtures outside of OFC, but if OFC is now expanded there are more chances in-built, with the possibility of more (and more challenging games) to help develop players and raise standards. Fourthly, the ideal arrangement of an Oceania team being granted entry to the final stages of Asian World Cup qualifying takes a boost if OFC is bigger, and has more of a membership connection to the region (if FIFA made noises about reducing Asia’s World Cup allocations due to reduced membership, then they could respond by including an Oceania team – probably assuming it wouldn’t pose a threat…). Fifth, it shows a proactive move to enhance football in our region, without necessarily causing political damage with AFC and FIFA. And who knows, if it works, perhaps the likes of Singapore and Malaysia would show an interest in following suit…
This is all just thinking aloud, and I’m positive there are plenty of ‘cons’ to these explained ‘pros’ that people will speedily offer. But the idea was, if we can’t go to Asia, bring Asia to us – in part with members, and in part by increased appeal and connection due to those members. I could see a couple of current OFC members objecting (probably fearing slipping down the pecking order with new opponents on board), but the others would hopefully see it for the benefits it could also bring them.
So yeh, just an idea.