BAZEball - The Darren Bazeley Era

After this fiasco, i am wondering if the NZF are looking to moving their head office to the 1st apartment in K Road - The one next door to the massage parlour on one side and the Tattoo parlour on the other.

Rule one, never tell all the candidates that they have missed out on the job UNTIL you have your best one on a signed contract. If that fails you can fall back on the next best and not look stupid.

Rule two, Get a new Fax Machine.

Rule 3, Why insist on the role being based in Auckland?? Right in amongst some of the most political infighting in football in New Zealand. 

Good grief. I liked Talay being straight up. he seems like a guy with integrity. He gave it his best and whilst not slagging the NZF off at missing out, he's said been there done that, moving on. Considering the NZF screwed that whole situation up. Now during this MV match, the commentators are talking about it from 5-7 mins in. 

lthomas20

This may provoke some on here but I genuinely do feel a bit sad for NZF...

While I wouldn't say the past 2-4 years have been great and there have been numerous blunders/issues (National League under 20 rule, international fixture issues, not renewing Hay, lack of ambition for Football Ferns) to me at least they built up a reputation of being somewhat misguided slightly bureaucratic professionals, and the good things largely equalled out the blunders (financially aiding Nix for ALW team, winning womens world cup bid, reforming the NZ National League, improvement on international fixtures). A big improvement on the awful old days of Andy Martin. 

But I think unfortunately their reputation has come crashing back down to the bad old days with this one big flaming coaching fiasco. That may not reflect some of the good work they have done, but they have fudgeed a big thing up big time, and completely embarrassed themselves in the process. 

I just hope from here on out that:
1. They are honest to the football public and admit that they fudgeed up
2. We get somebody of decent calibre in as the coach leaving us able to put this big shamble to their backs of our minds. 

Has the national League improved? From what I saw of Akl City in the Club WC last week it's gone backwards.  What masquerades as a league isn't a patch on what was set up in 2004/5 (NZFC) or what existed in the 70s and 80s (the old National League where attendances were better then what the Nix gets now). 

Nixieboys222

fair enough. To me its just a funny sitution that the CEO of a football club is upset that his head coach didnt get the national team coaching position. I guess the Nix and NZF finds itself in a weird situation compared to most of the world

reg22

Yeah, personally I completely disagree and I'm impressed by what Dome has done today
Also, I'm sure Dome is also busily focusing on crowds, running the club etc.

I think Talay has tended his notice (i.e going to leave at the end of his contract) and Dome hoped that this gig would keep him here and avoid the Nix going through what the AWs are now. 

Let's not forget recruitment isn't a cheap activity.

Marto

Nixieboys222

fair enough. To me its just a funny sitution that the CEO of a football club is upset that his head coach didnt get the national team coaching position. I guess the Nix and NZF finds itself in a weird situation compared to most of the world

reg22

Yeah, personally I completely disagree and I'm impressed by what Dome has done today
Also, I'm sure Dome is also busily focusing on crowds, running the club etc.

I think Talay has tended his notice and Some hope that this gig would keep him here and avoid the Nix going through what the AWs are now. 

Let's not forget recruitment isn't a cheap activity.

Talay is contracted until the end of the season, he doesn't give a notice, his contract expires.

I don’t get the heat on Pragnall not visiting the new site. He’s currently recruiting a new mens head coach and working on hosting a World Cup in a few months. Id rather he focus on those than checking out the flash new weights room. 

kwlap

I don’t get the heat on Pragnall not visiting the new site. He’s currently recruiting a new mens head coach and working on hosting a World Cup in a few months. Id rather he focus on those than checking out the flash new weights room. 

he hasnt been recruiting for 6 months,besides an agency would have been doing alll the actual work all he did was pay for it effectively - he should have been there on opening day! Even the head coach of the Ferns has been - it's a key facitlity for football in the regiion if not the country FFS a simple trip for one day - easy.

Don’t see the problem here. I’ve told plenty of applicants they didn’t get the job before it was filled. 
If he didn’t fit the role, why would NZF want to keep stringing him along. 
NZF wanted a sole focus coach and want someone working day to day with others. If UT wasn’t prepared to forgo the Phoenix gig, he doesn’t fit the role.
But I guess whatever NZF do will be wrong according to most on here.

On the Domey chat, you’d assume that NZF don’t have an excessively large consortium of backers who are prepared to lose money to provide a pathway to professional football in their country. 

You’d think that the fact there are people who have been prepared to lose significant sums for a cause that benefits your organisation requires some professional courtesy. And not destabilising and disrespecting the coach of the only pro team in the country or annoying fans too could be a way to go? 

Have to be honest, I’ve liked the intent from Pragnell about getting the AWs playing. And if Herdman is telling him he wants to come back to NZ, then that has to be explored. But…

At the least we didn’t need the distraction for tonight’s game and the questions at the airport and before the game. 

Martinb said
“You’d think that the fact there are people who have been prepared to lose significant sums for a cause that benefits your organisation requires some professional courtesy. And not destabilising and disrespecting the coach of the only pro team in the country or annoying fans too could be a way to go? ”

I’m curious in what way NZF have not shown professional curtesy (in relation to AW job) and destabilised and disrespected the coach?
Job description gave the parameters, everything else was for discussion in the interview. Applicants were advised they would have a response by end of January. Pragnell called UT, who didn’t answer. So he sent an email. Better UT knows where he stands than have that in his mind while preparing for a Phoenix game.

No it sounds like the only communication Uffie received after 6 weeks of silence was a letter or email from the recruitment agent. 

There may have been a missed call from Pragnell but you make sure you do contact him first or at worst speak to his boss Dome, before the recruiter confirms Talay was unsuccessful. It’s just the right thing to do in the small NZ football pond

Let’s be honest NZF could have handled this thing better on many levels. And whoever leaked the name Herdman to Gourdie should be getting a proper blast. That leak doesn’t happen and the mess is far less painful, just the usual criticism why is it taking so long

Pragnell’s call we have a “standout”
candidate the other big clanger 

ClubOranje

Martinb said
“You’d think that the fact there are people who have been prepared to lose significant sums for a cause that benefits your organisation requires some professional courtesy. And not destabilising and disrespecting the coach of the only pro team in the country or annoying fans too could be a way to go? ”

I’m curious in what way NZF have not shown professional curtesy (in relation to AW job) and destabilised and disrespected the coach?
Job description gave the parameters, everything else was for discussion in the interview. Applicants were advised they would have a response by end of January. Pragnell called UT, who didn’t answer. So he sent an email. Better UT knows where he stands than have that in his mind while preparing for a Phoenix game.

If they were never considering him say that up front. 

Don’t f the team/club/Uffie around for six weeks and then go, oh and you’ll have to be based in Auckland which is obviously a non-starter. It’s just disrespectful. It doesn’t seem like there was any situation where he would have been appointed, but them made him jump through hoops and jerked the rest of us around by pretending he was in the running. 

Uffie doesn’t seem to be the kind of coach who’d do that to a player and tbh that was part of the attraction. Some frank communication after an era of pretending Huddo was Bielsa.

@Coochie he had a missed call prior to the email. But come the f on. We’re not talking about going for a call centre job. Call his boss, see where he is when he’s back etc. 

Are you saying NZF have not benefited a lot from all the Phoenix investment? It’s a loss making operation. 

coochiee

Wonder what Ryan Nelsen thinks of all this. He was on the interview panel. Knows the CONCACAF scene probably better than anyone at NZF

Surely he told Pragnell we would be up against it getting Herdman. I read somewhere on $CDN750k pa with Canada Soccer, home WC in a few years. Gold Cups and maybe Copa Americas 

Why would he realistically consider the AWs. Surely the smart Nellie would have been wise to that 

Herdman’s salary in 2022 was $700,000Cdn ($816,530 NZ) which was 26th amongst World Cup managers. He was making more than Rob Page was making with Wales. Graham Arnold was on $1.89M Cdn FWIW.

Herdman may have been looking for more money for himself, but if he was financially motivated, I am confident he could have had a club job in England and gotten a significant raise after the World Cup.

Ancelotti actually lives in Vancouver in the few spare moments when he’s not managing one of the biggest clubs in the world (or Everton). I think a few of us have been caught up in the dream that he might fancy us as his last job before retirement. Herdman has a lot of goodwill built up over the years, but he dropped players during the campaign for not being fully committed to the program from the start, which is all well and good… but now he’s doing job interviews for other posts while under contract having pledged his future through 2026 only a few weeks previous? It’s not a flattering look. And I don’t think it’s going over very well with the masses. 

ClubOranje

Don’t see the problem here. I’ve told plenty of applicants they didn’t get the job before it was filled. 
If he didn’t fit the role, why would NZF want to keep stringing him along. 
NZF wanted a sole focus coach and want someone working day to day with others. If UT wasn’t prepared to forgo the Phoenix gig, he doesn’t fit the role.
But I guess whatever NZF do will be wrong according to most on here.

That's totally fine.  

But it sounds like they took far too long to tell him and did it via the recruitment agent after 6 weeks when he was never gonna have a chance.  Is that how you avoid stringing someone along?

Personally if I have an unbreakable requirement and they don't meet it I tell em pretty quickly.

Also how do you handle the international friendly on home soil in March if your first choice has changed their mind and you don't currently have a head coach to coach the squad.

Bananas

ClubOranje

Don’t see the problem here. I’ve told plenty of applicants they didn’t get the job before it was filled. 
If he didn’t fit the role, why would NZF want to keep stringing him along. 
NZF wanted a sole focus coach and want someone working day to day with others. If UT wasn’t prepared to forgo the Phoenix gig, he doesn’t fit the role.
But I guess whatever NZF do will be wrong according to most on here.

That's totally fine.  

But it sounds like they took far too long to tell him and did it via the recruitment agent after 6 weeks when he was never gonna have a chance.  Is that how you avoid stringing someone along?

Personally if I have an unbreakable requirement and they don't meet it I tell em pretty quickly.

Also how do you handle the international friendly on home soil in March if your first choice has changed their mind and you don't currently have a head coach to coach the squad.

you handle it by getting the current U20 manager, who you've also told wont get the top job, to run the team. Cos that's gonna go well!?!?!?!?!

theprof

Bananas

ClubOranje

Don’t see the problem here. I’ve told plenty of applicants they didn’t get the job before it was filled. 
If he didn’t fit the role, why would NZF want to keep stringing him along. 
NZF wanted a sole focus coach and want someone working day to day with others. If UT wasn’t prepared to forgo the Phoenix gig, he doesn’t fit the role.
But I guess whatever NZF do will be wrong according to most on here.

That's totally fine.  

But it sounds like they took far too long to tell him and did it via the recruitment agent after 6 weeks when he was never gonna have a chance.  Is that how you avoid stringing someone along?

Personally if I have an unbreakable requirement and they don't meet it I tell em pretty quickly.

Also how do you handle the international friendly on home soil in March if your first choice has changed their mind and you don't currently have a head coach to coach the squad.

you handle it by getting the current U20 manager, who you've also told wont get the top job, to run the team. Cos that's gonna go well!?!?!?!?!

It's just two friendlies and Bazeley is well respected by the playing group. Get over yourself. 

I'm actually interested to see how well Bazeley does during the China matches in his first time in charge of the national team.

theprof

Bananas

ClubOranje

Don’t see the problem here. I’ve told plenty of applicants they didn’t get the job before it was filled. 
If he didn’t fit the role, why would NZF want to keep stringing him along. 
NZF wanted a sole focus coach and want someone working day to day with others. If UT wasn’t prepared to forgo the Phoenix gig, he doesn’t fit the role.
But I guess whatever NZF do will be wrong according to most on here.

That's totally fine.  

But it sounds like they took far too long to tell him and did it via the recruitment agent after 6 weeks when he was never gonna have a chance.  Is that how you avoid stringing someone along?

Personally if I have an unbreakable requirement and they don't meet it I tell em pretty quickly.

Also how do you handle the international friendly on home soil in March if your first choice has changed their mind and you don't currently have a head coach to coach the squad.

you handle it by getting the current U20 manager, who you've also told wont get the top job, to run the team. Cos that's gonna go well!?!?!?!?!

he hasn't been told he won't get the top job as far as we know. He was just told he wasn't preferred candidate and they still hoped to eventually get that candidate (which he they and we now know is not happening). Pragnell also said theyd reassess after March whether they needed to go to market again. It could very well be the case that Bazeley is given the job full time. NZF is probably praying he wins both China games well so they can do so without more backlash. They were obviously too ashamed to appoint him now without spinning the bullshark story they did.
 
Being realistic it is by far the most likely outcome now that he is appointed fulltime, unless he loses both China games. Hay's praises were sung to the heavens by media after losing his last 4 games in charge without scoring once. A 1-1 draw will look amazing in comparison. Herdman, Des and ufuk arent coming back. If the only other name under serious consideration was Scot Gemmill as reported, then there is nobody else decent out there. Unless NZF invite Ramon to interview or something. 

lthomas20

theprof

Bananas

ClubOranje

Don’t see the problem here. I’ve told plenty of applicants they didn’t get the job before it was filled. 
If he didn’t fit the role, why would NZF want to keep stringing him along. 
NZF wanted a sole focus coach and want someone working day to day with others. If UT wasn’t prepared to forgo the Phoenix gig, he doesn’t fit the role.
But I guess whatever NZF do will be wrong according to most on here.

That's totally fine.  

But it sounds like they took far too long to tell him and did it via the recruitment agent after 6 weeks when he was never gonna have a chance.  Is that how you avoid stringing someone along?

Personally if I have an unbreakable requirement and they don't meet it I tell em pretty quickly.

Also how do you handle the international friendly on home soil in March if your first choice has changed their mind and you don't currently have a head coach to coach the squad.

you handle it by getting the current U20 manager, who you've also told wont get the top job, to run the team. Cos that's gonna go well!?!?!?!?!

It's just two friendlies and Bazeley is well respected by the playing group. Get over yourself. 

I'm well aware of the regard that Bazeley has, that's all well nd good. My comment is not anti-him in any way. It's directed at the shambles that is NZF, delaying the process of hiring a new manager because of the women's friendlies and then not having made a decision in time for the first friendlies the team plays in aaaages!
So, instead of being organised they put in a temporary manager, who also interviewed for the job and you'd assume has been told he wasnt the #1 option and has read the press where Pragnell says they'll restart the process after March.
So at best Bazeley is gonna have to reapply and reinterview.

New Zealand Football are shambolic and have been for 50 years.

Beazley isn't highly respected by 'all' the playing group.

Seen as a Yes Man to Hay, and given he was not the most popular individual, I can't imagine everyone will be happy to see him getting a crack.

imanixsupporter

theprof

Bananas

ClubOranje

Don’t see the problem here. I’ve told plenty of applicants they didn’t get the job before it was filled. 
If he didn’t fit the role, why would NZF want to keep stringing him along. 
NZF wanted a sole focus coach and want someone working day to day with others. If UT wasn’t prepared to forgo the Phoenix gig, he doesn’t fit the role.
But I guess whatever NZF do will be wrong according to most on here.

That's totally fine.  

But it sounds like they took far too long to tell him and did it via the recruitment agent after 6 weeks when he was never gonna have a chance.  Is that how you avoid stringing someone along?

Personally if I have an unbreakable requirement and they don't meet it I tell em pretty quickly.

Also how do you handle the international friendly on home soil in March if your first choice has changed their mind and you don't currently have a head coach to coach the squad.

you handle it by getting the current U20 manager, who you've also told wont get the top job, to run the team. Cos that's gonna go well!?!?!?!?!

he hasn't been told he won't get the top job as far as we know. He was just told he wasn't preferred candidate and they still hoped to eventually get that candidate (which he they and we now know is not happening). Pragnell also said theyd reassess after March whether they needed to go to market again. It could very well be the case that Bazeley is given the job full time. NZF is probably praying he wins both China games well so they can do so without more backlash. They were obviously too ashamed to appoint him now without spinning the bullshark story they did.
 
Being realistic it is by far the most likely outcome now that he is appointed fulltime, unless he loses both China games. Hay's praises were sung to the heavens by media after losing his last 4 games in charge without scoring once. A 1-1 draw will look amazing in comparison. Herdman, Des and ufuk arent coming back. If the only other name under serious consideration was Scot Gemmill as reported, then there is nobody else decent out there. Unless NZF invite Ramon to interview or something. 

Yes you genius, a 1-1 draw against nr 80 in the world will look amazing in comparisons to tight losses against nr 21, 27 and 32. 

lthomas20

imanixsupporter

theprof

Bananas

ClubOranje

Don’t see the problem here. I’ve told plenty of applicants they didn’t get the job before it was filled. 
If he didn’t fit the role, why would NZF want to keep stringing him along. 
NZF wanted a sole focus coach and want someone working day to day with others. If UT wasn’t prepared to forgo the Phoenix gig, he doesn’t fit the role.
But I guess whatever NZF do will be wrong according to most on here.

That's totally fine.  

But it sounds like they took far too long to tell him and did it via the recruitment agent after 6 weeks when he was never gonna have a chance.  Is that how you avoid stringing someone along?

Personally if I have an unbreakable requirement and they don't meet it I tell em pretty quickly.

Also how do you handle the international friendly on home soil in March if your first choice has changed their mind and you don't currently have a head coach to coach the squad.

you handle it by getting the current U20 manager, who you've also told wont get the top job, to run the team. Cos that's gonna go well!?!?!?!?!

he hasn't been told he won't get the top job as far as we know. He was just told he wasn't preferred candidate and they still hoped to eventually get that candidate (which he they and we now know is not happening). Pragnell also said theyd reassess after March whether they needed to go to market again. It could very well be the case that Bazeley is given the job full time. NZF is probably praying he wins both China games well so they can do so without more backlash. They were obviously too ashamed to appoint him now without spinning the bullshark story they did.
 
Being realistic it is by far the most likely outcome now that he is appointed fulltime, unless he loses both China games. Hay's praises were sung to the heavens by media after losing his last 4 games in charge without scoring once. A 1-1 draw will look amazing in comparison. Herdman, Des and ufuk arent coming back. If the only other name under serious consideration was Scot Gemmill as reported, then there is nobody else decent out there. Unless NZF invite Ramon to interview or something. 

Yes you genius, a 1-1 draw against nr 80 in the world will look amazing in comparisons to tight losses against nr 21, 27 and 32. 

How is not scoring a goal and not even looking like it a tight loss? 

Hayters gotta keep on Hayting.

We were pretty darn unlucky not to score against Costa Rica. Especially with a controversial one disallowed. Against Aus the first game we actually created some very good chances, conceded a banger and were unlucky to lose 1-0. Second game against Aus we attacked them and created chances but unfortunately played poorly in the key moments and their fringe players took advantage and they won 2-0. 

Only game you are correct about is Peru game - we did create nothing in that, but if it hadn't been for a Sail error (hmm, seems familiar), then we looked in position to draw that 0-0. 

So yeah, we did look like scoring goals, our attackers just couldn't bloody finish. Didn't even look like scoring? What a load of nonsense. 

We had a goal disallowed against Peru, Waine drifted offside. The last game against Aus at Eden Park we were very poor, basically once Wood came off. The other matches yes were in the game.

But the recurring theme is we are creating chances but not scoring. But then if you look at our players over the various leagues worldwide, no one is scoring anywhere regularly at a decent level. No one. Not even the Woodsman anymore. Hopefully Singh can start netting or creating a few in Germany.

Is going to be the biggest challenge for the new coach, scoring goals. But a fit Singh & Thomas will be a big help in the immediate future. Guys like Waine, Garbett, Just scoring regularly at a decent level also needs to happen

lthomas20

Hayters gotta keep on Hayting.

We were pretty darn unlucky not to score against Costa Rica. Especially with a controversial one disallowed. Against Aus the first game we actually created some very good chances, conceded a banger and were unlucky to lose 1-0. Second game against Aus we attacked them and created chances but unfortunately played poorly in the key moments and their fringe players took advantage and they won 2-0. 

Only game you are correct about is Peru game - we did create nothing in that, but if it hadn't been for a Sail error (hmm, seems familiar), then we looked in position to draw that 0-0. 

So yeah, we did look like scoring goals, our attackers just couldn't bloody finish. Didn't even look like scoring? What a load of nonsense. 

Whoa, i though "tight loss" indicated some chance of winning? As in you actually posed a threat. My mistake. They never even remotely looked like winning or drawing a game.

"pretty darn unlucky not to score against Costa Rica "-The opposition knows your team is crap and give you 60% of the ball and you still can't score. That is not unlucky that is incompetence.

"Aus the first game we actually created some very good chances, conceded a banger and were unlucky to lose 1-0."- So our benchmark for a "tight loss" is creating "very good chances" which we could not finish? I thought a team that was any good could finish "A very good chance" but call me old fashioned. Do you also mention the all the chances that Australia did not finish? 

" Second game against Aus we attacked them and created chances but unfortunately played poorly in the key moments and their fringe players took advantage and they won 2-0. "-We lost at home! To Australia B! Got dominated 40-60 in possession and shots on target 2-6. This is not a "tight loss".

"Only game you are correct about is Peru game - we did create nothing in that, but if it hadn't been for a Sail error (hmm, seems familiar), then we looked in position to draw that 0-0."- So if Peru had not scored due to the Sail error then they would not have launched further attacks due to their fear of the dangerous NZ offense? They again dominated us in possession 40-60 and out shot us 2-8?! Not a "tight Loss" and good riddance to your buddy Hayzo Mourinho. 

All the coping and seething and excuses about why Hay's impotent losses were actually good are so tiresome. You all must have lost your minds when Ryan Thomas hit the post vs Peru (in a 0-0 no less! Didn't even lose!) and must have been gutted when we lost Hudson. But I want better than that. And yes, I do think a 1-1 vs China will look better to a lot of casual fans/observers than losses vs teams that aren't really considered footballing heavyweights. My overriding thought at Eden park was it was such a shame that we played five at the back in a home friendly in front of a record crowd and lost 2-0. Must have been so many casual fans and so many kids gutted to not see us score or at least really go for it, and it was a real opportunity lost. We will take a long time to get that sort of crowd again as a result. That is Danny Hay's legacy and i'm glad he isnt our coach anymore 

imanixsupporter

All the coping and seething and excuses about why Hay's impotent losses were actually good are so tiresome. You all must have lost your minds when Ryan Thomas hit the post vs Peru (in a 0-0 no less! Didn't even lose!) and must have been gutted when we lost Hudson. But I want better than that. And yes, I do think a 1-1 vs China will look better to a lot of casual fans/observers than losses vs teams that aren't really considered footballing heavyweights. My overriding thought at Eden park was it was such a shame that we played five at the back in a home friendly in front of a record crowd and lost 2-0. Must have been so many casual fans and so many kids gutted to not see us score or at least really go for it, and it was a real opportunity lost. We will take a long time to get that sort of crowd again as a result. That is Danny Hay's legacy and i'm glad he isnt our coach anymore 

Drawing 1-1 against a side whose only WC qualification came when three of the best five teams - Japan, South Korea and Australia - in its confederation weren't competing in qualifying, recently finished with one win from ten in World Cup qualifying and is only a couple places and twenty-odd ranking points out of 1,300 higher than Bahrain and Curacao - who we both beat under Hay -  in the mid 80s of the world rankings would not look that great at all. 

Australia made it to the Round of 16, losing narrowly (oh no, not that word) 1-2 to Argentina who won the whole thing. They beat Tunisia and then-tenth ranked Denmark - semifinalists at the Euros the year before - by the same margin as they beat us. Their other match was a loss to France, who - you know - also made it to the final. Even considering that casuals might not know as much, which is debatable, I think they'd be able to appreciate there is a difference between China and an Australian side in their last match before going to their best ever World Cup performance.

Also the 'impotent' claim is patently false. Across the four games, the All Whites had a cumulative xG of 5.21 and a cumulative xG against of 4.4. They had post-match expected win percentages of 62.47% vs Costa Rica, 41.72% vs Australia away and 36.43 vs Australia at home. The probability of losing all four matches together was 0.75% based off the xG of both teams in the four matches. That is beyond the realms of just being unlucky, it's a massive statistical anomaly. 

Anyway, the next coach probably won't be Danny. The next coach will have their work cut out to beat the team's we're apparently expected to beat though, especially with a striker cohort currently having a combined 3,201 club minutes this season for 13 goals. Hay must obviously be affecting their club careers too. Breaking it down, that's 246 minutes per goal (mpg) in total - Waine 150 mpg, Wood 250 mpg (with one of three being against fourth-tier Tranmere), De Jong 264 mpg and Greive 353 mpg.

"Also the 'impotent' claim is patently false. Across the four games, the All Whites had a cumulative xG of 5.21 and a cumulative xG against of 4.4. They had post-match expected win percentages of 62.47% vs Costa Rica, 41.72% vs Australia away and 36.43 vs Australia at home. The probability of losing all four matches together was 0.75% based off the xG of both teams in the four matches. That is beyond the realms of just being unlucky, it's a massive statistical anomaly."

Do you know the sad thing? I've heard you or someone pull out these same facts multiple times before. But the folks who have something personal against Hay (me thinks it has something to with Buckingham-worship), have a continuous pattern of ignoring facts and sharkting on someone who did a pretty decent job. 

Unfortunately I think if Bazeley ends up being the full time coach, then he will suffer the same and even more from people writing him off from the get go and refusing to go back on it. Not that I'm sure of Bazeley myself tbh... but you have to give whoever is chosen a fair run. 

In layman’s terms China are pretty shark, and a 1-1 home draw against them would be plainly unimpressive, especially if by chance Singh and Thomas (though I don’t think either will) played

Some seem to be dismissive of just how good the likes of Australia and Peru are, and have over the top (for now) expectations on an AWs group where no one is scoring anywhere worldwide in the last 12-18 mths

Football rankings mean very little - unless you're talking about the top 20 teams. 
We shouldnt be scared or worried about China, we should be aiming to win pretty much every game we play - unless its aganst one of the top 20 teams and then you recognise the quality and do your best not to be blasted off the field.
We should have the squad to challenge China, assuming the interim coach selects the right players and sets them up to play football and not sit with 5 at the back hoping to absorb and steal the win.

theprof

Football rankings mean very little - unless you're talking about the top 20 teams. 
We shouldnt be scared or worried about China, we should be aiming to win pretty much every game we play - unless its aganst one of the top 20 teams and then you recognise the quality and do your best not to be blasted off the field.
We should have the squad to challenge China, assuming the interim coach selects the right players and sets them up to play football and not sit with 5 at the back hoping to absorb and steal the win.

Alot will depend of what sort of AWs team assembles. 

Given it will just be an interim coach, many guys are at clubs in relegation/promotion scraps, UK lower leagues & MLS won't break for the window, it's just the start of the 2026 WC cycle, and a general sense of negativity about the AWs/NZF at the moment (could be different come March) - I'm pessimistically saying it will be a weakened squad. It could be an ALM heavy AWs named.

The Chinese with nearly all their players plying their trade in the CSL (China is closer to NZ than Europe) - could be at close to full strength. Can't find out when the new CSL season starts, but prior Covid (China is slowly returning to a pre Covid world) it was usually in early March. So their players could be a little rusty, so early in their new club seasons.

Oh & 5 at the back is not always a defensive setup, smarter folks than me have explained that. Especially if you have LB threat like Libby.

the China games fall in an official windown though? So teams have to release players?

Totally agree 5 at the back can be quite attacking when WB's are employed. In recent history we have deplayed a flat 5 whcih is very defensive.

coochiee

In layman’s terms China are pretty shark, and a 1-1 home draw against them would be plainly unimpressive, especially if by chance Singh and Thomas (though I don’t think either will) played

Some seem to be dismissive of just how good the likes of Australia and Peru are, and have over the top (for now) expectations on an AWs group where no one is scoring anywhere worldwide in the last 12-18 mths

Isn't this a contradiction? A 1-1 draw would be a terrible result and at the same time no one has scored a goal for the last 12-18 months? In that case wouldn't a 1-1 draw be impressive? Also considering the record of the last 5 results between the two countries. I would say scoring a goal would be the biggest achievement considering the last four games.

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I would bet the house on a 1-1 or 0-0 draw.

lthomas20

"Also the 'impotent' claim is patently false. Across the four games, the All Whites had a cumulative xG of 5.21 and a cumulative xG against of 4.4. They had post-match expected win percentages of 62.47% vs Costa Rica, 41.72% vs Australia away and 36.43 vs Australia at home. The probability of losing all four matches together was 0.75% based off the xG of both teams in the four matches. That is beyond the realms of just being unlucky, it's a massive statistical anomaly."

Do you know the sad thing? I've heard you or someone pull out these same facts multiple times before. But the folks who have something personal against Hay (me thinks it has something to with Buckingham-worship), have a continuous pattern of ignoring facts and sharkting on someone who did a pretty decent job. 

Unfortunately I think if Bazeley ends up being the full time coach, then he will suffer the same and even more from people writing him off from the get go and refusing to go back on it. Not that I'm sure of Bazeley myself tbh... but you have to give whoever is chosen a fair run. 

Well calling "xG" as "fact" and attributing to it the qualities and integrity of an established science makes no sense. Do you not acknowledge how illogical it is to have a "post match expected win percentage"? By definition the game is already over and any statistical prediction or extrapolation is redundant. The expected win percentages you site more or less reflect the possession stats.

But here is better breakdown of the flaws of xG than I can give.

“The xG value of shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability.
It puts the same value on a chance going in regardless of if it is Alexandre Lacazette taking a shot or Yaya Sanogo and it assumes the same with a goal keeper. It does not account for David de Gea being a better goal keeper than Manuel Almunia . It assumes that a shot is just as likely to beat both.

So Sanogo against de Gea is given the exact same value as Lacazette against Almunia. Football is all about exceptional talents. It is what separates a £50m striker or a £80m goal keeper from one that costs £5m. It is why Manchester City top the league and Newcastle are bottom. Why Sergio Aguero outscores Joselu. Lionel Messi has “outperformed” his xG prediction throughout his career. That is because he isn’t average. He is the greatest player of his generation. He should not be compared to the average within the league.

As soon as you start disregarding individual talent and assume that everyone is the same, your analysis becomes flawed. A world class goal keeping performance, a keeper letting the ball through his legs, a striker missing a tap in or scoring a worldie. A beach ball entering the field of play. These are all actual events. Events an algorithm cannot predict.”

Just wondering, did your algorithm predict Newcastle miraculously moving up from bottom to top 4?

Ted Striker

lthomas20

"Also the 'impotent' claim is patently false. Across the four games, the All Whites had a cumulative xG of 5.21 and a cumulative xG against of 4.4. They had post-match expected win percentages of 62.47% vs Costa Rica, 41.72% vs Australia away and 36.43 vs Australia at home. The probability of losing all four matches together was 0.75% based off the xG of both teams in the four matches. That is beyond the realms of just being unlucky, it's a massive statistical anomaly."

Do you know the sad thing? I've heard you or someone pull out these same facts multiple times before. But the folks who have something personal against Hay (me thinks it has something to with Buckingham-worship), have a continuous pattern of ignoring facts and sharkting on someone who did a pretty decent job. 

Unfortunately I think if Bazeley ends up being the full time coach, then he will suffer the same and even more from people writing him off from the get go and refusing to go back on it. Not that I'm sure of Bazeley myself tbh... but you have to give whoever is chosen a fair run. 

Well calling "xG" as "fact" and attributing to it the qualities and integrity of an established science makes no sense. Do you not acknowledge how illogical it is to have a "post match expected win percentage"? By definition the game is already over and any statistical prediction or extrapolation is redundant. The expected win percentages you site more or less reflect the possession stats.

But here is better breakdown of the flaws of xG than I can give.

“The xG value of shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability.
It puts the same value on a chance going in regardless of if it is Alexandre Lacazette taking a shot or Yaya Sanogo and it assumes the same with a goal keeper. It does not account for David de Gea being a better goal keeper than Manuel Almunia . It assumes that a shot is just as likely to beat both.

So Sanogo against de Gea is given the exact same value as Lacazette against Almunia. Football is all about exceptional talents. It is what separates a £50m striker or a £80m goal keeper from one that costs £5m. It is why Manchester City top the league and Newcastle are bottom. Why Sergio Aguero outscores Joselu. Lionel Messi has “outperformed” his xG prediction throughout his career. That is because he isn’t average. He is the greatest player of his generation. He should not be compared to the average within the league.

As soon as you start disregarding individual talent and assume that everyone is the same, your analysis becomes flawed. A world class goal keeping performance, a keeper letting the ball through his legs, a striker missing a tap in or scoring a worldie. A beach ball entering the field of play. These are all actual events. Events an algorithm cannot predict.”

So what you're saying is Danny Hay is a bad coach because of random chance and his players not being good enough (which is not his fault)

Ted Striker

lthomas20

"Also the 'impotent' claim is patently false. Across the four games, the All Whites had a cumulative xG of 5.21 and a cumulative xG against of 4.4. They had post-match expected win percentages of 62.47% vs Costa Rica, 41.72% vs Australia away and 36.43 vs Australia at home. The probability of losing all four matches together was 0.75% based off the xG of both teams in the four matches. That is beyond the realms of just being unlucky, it's a massive statistical anomaly."

Do you know the sad thing? I've heard you or someone pull out these same facts multiple times before. But the folks who have something personal against Hay (me thinks it has something to with Buckingham-worship), have a continuous pattern of ignoring facts and sharkting on someone who did a pretty decent job. 

Unfortunately I think if Bazeley ends up being the full time coach, then he will suffer the same and even more from people writing him off from the get go and refusing to go back on it. Not that I'm sure of Bazeley myself tbh... but you have to give whoever is chosen a fair run. 

Well calling "xG" as "fact" and attributing to it the qualities and integrity of an established science makes no sense. Do you not acknowledge how illogical it is to have a "post match expected win percentage"? By definition the game is already over and any statistical prediction or extrapolation is redundant. The expected win percentages you site more or less reflect the possession stats.

But here is better breakdown of the flaws of xG than I can give.

“The xG value of shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability.
It puts the same value on a chance going in regardless of if it is Alexandre Lacazette taking a shot or Yaya Sanogo and it assumes the same with a goal keeper. It does not account for David de Gea being a better goal keeper than Manuel Almunia . It assumes that a shot is just as likely to beat both.

So Sanogo against de Gea is given the exact same value as Lacazette against Almunia. Football is all about exceptional talents. It is what separates a £50m striker or a £80m goal keeper from one that costs £5m. It is why Manchester City top the league and Newcastle are bottom. Why Sergio Aguero outscores Joselu. Lionel Messi has “outperformed” his xG prediction throughout his career. That is because he isn’t average. He is the greatest player of his generation. He should not be compared to the average within the league.

As soon as you start disregarding individual talent and assume that everyone is the same, your analysis becomes flawed. A world class goal keeping performance, a keeper letting the ball through his legs, a striker missing a tap in or scoring a worldie. A beach ball entering the field of play. These are all actual events. Events an algorithm cannot predict.”

 

lthomas20

Ted Striker

lthomas20

"Also the 'impotent' claim is patently false. Across the four games, the All Whites had a cumulative xG of 5.21 and a cumulative xG against of 4.4. They had post-match expected win percentages of 62.47% vs Costa Rica, 41.72% vs Australia away and 36.43 vs Australia at home. The probability of losing all four matches together was 0.75% based off the xG of both teams in the four matches. That is beyond the realms of just being unlucky, it's a massive statistical anomaly."

Do you know the sad thing? I've heard you or someone pull out these same facts multiple times before. But the folks who have something personal against Hay (me thinks it has something to with Buckingham-worship), have a continuous pattern of ignoring facts and sharkting on someone who did a pretty decent job. 

Unfortunately I think if Bazeley ends up being the full time coach, then he will suffer the same and even more from people writing him off from the get go and refusing to go back on it. Not that I'm sure of Bazeley myself tbh... but you have to give whoever is chosen a fair run. 

Well calling "xG" as "fact" and attributing to it the qualities and integrity of an established science makes no sense. Do you not acknowledge how illogical it is to have a "post match expected win percentage"? By definition the game is already over and any statistical prediction or extrapolation is redundant. The expected win percentages you site more or less reflect the possession stats.

But here is better breakdown of the flaws of xG than I can give.

“The xG value of shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability.
It puts the same value on a chance going in regardless of if it is Alexandre Lacazette taking a shot or Yaya Sanogo and it assumes the same with a goal keeper. It does not account for David de Gea being a better goal keeper than Manuel Almunia . It assumes that a shot is just as likely to beat both.

So Sanogo against de Gea is given the exact same value as Lacazette against Almunia. Football is all about exceptional talents. It is what separates a £50m striker or a £80m goal keeper from one that costs £5m. It is why Manchester City top the league and Newcastle are bottom. Why Sergio Aguero outscores Joselu. Lionel Messi has “outperformed” his xG prediction throughout his career. That is because he isn’t average. He is the greatest player of his generation. He should not be compared to the average within the league.

As soon as you start disregarding individual talent and assume that everyone is the same, your analysis becomes flawed. A world class goal keeping performance, a keeper letting the ball through his legs, a striker missing a tap in or scoring a worldie. A beach ball entering the field of play. These are all actual events. Events an algorithm cannot predict.”

So what you're saying is Danny Hay is a bad coach because of random chance and his players not being good enough (which is not his fault)

Ted Striker

lthomas20

"Also the 'impotent' claim is patently false. Across the four games, the All Whites had a cumulative xG of 5.21 and a cumulative xG against of 4.4. They had post-match expected win percentages of 62.47% vs Costa Rica, 41.72% vs Australia away and 36.43 vs Australia at home. The probability of losing all four matches together was 0.75% based off the xG of both teams in the four matches. That is beyond the realms of just being unlucky, it's a massive statistical anomaly."

Do you know the sad thing? I've heard you or someone pull out these same facts multiple times before. But the folks who have something personal against Hay (me thinks it has something to with Buckingham-worship), have a continuous pattern of ignoring facts and sharkting on someone who did a pretty decent job. 

Unfortunately I think if Bazeley ends up being the full time coach, then he will suffer the same and even more from people writing him off from the get go and refusing to go back on it. Not that I'm sure of Bazeley myself tbh... but you have to give whoever is chosen a fair run. 

Well calling "xG" as "fact" and attributing to it the qualities and integrity of an established science makes no sense. Do you not acknowledge how illogical it is to have a "post match expected win percentage"? By definition the game is already over and any statistical prediction or extrapolation is redundant. The expected win percentages you site more or less reflect the possession stats.

But here is better breakdown of the flaws of xG than I can give.

“The xG value of shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability.
It puts the same value on a chance going in regardless of if it is Alexandre Lacazette taking a shot or Yaya Sanogo and it assumes the same with a goal keeper. It does not account for David de Gea being a better goal keeper than Manuel Almunia . It assumes that a shot is just as likely to beat both.

So Sanogo against de Gea is given the exact same value as Lacazette against Almunia. Football is all about exceptional talents. It is what separates a £50m striker or a £80m goal keeper from one that costs £5m. It is why Manchester City top the league and Newcastle are bottom. Why Sergio Aguero outscores Joselu. Lionel Messi has “outperformed” his xG prediction throughout his career. That is because he isn’t average. He is the greatest player of his generation. He should not be compared to the average within the league.

As soon as you start disregarding individual talent and assume that everyone is the same, your analysis becomes flawed. A world class goal keeping performance, a keeper letting the ball through his legs, a striker missing a tap in or scoring a worldie. A beach ball entering the field of play. These are all actual events. Events an algorithm cannot predict.”

 

"So what you're saying is Danny Hay is a bad coach because of random chance and his players not being good enough (which is not his fault)"

No, I am saying that the poor performance of the team under Hay is not down mainly to bad luck and a "statistical anomaly" proven by an xG algorithm similar to Haley's comet coming around twice in the same year. I don't think it was "beyond being unlucky" based on a floored statistical theory. I think it is a fair point to say that random chance plays a factor as it does in every match but saying the players are not good and that is not the fault of Hay I don't agree with entirely. I think it ignores what Graham Arnold did with the worst Australian team(player for player) that has ever qualified for a world cup and yet achieved their best results. If you applied xG to the Australian team pre-world cup or during qualification they should not have even been there. It is also true that a coach other than Hay still may have lost but it is almost certain that a manager with more tactical ability like a Buckingham, Tribulietx or Figueroa would have been more likely to organize the team more astutely. 

Australia's weakest WC team was 1974. All amateurs.
I'd say the 2022 squad personal were on a rough par with 2014 & 2018.
2006 was the Golden Generation and alot of those guys were still there in 2010.

Maybe we should park the Hay debate til his next coaching job. Hopefully he will have some competent attackers there, unlike the useless forwards this country has to offer so we can fairly judge. Surely some high quality football clubs/national setups can see in Danny what some of the top minds on this forum can and will be vying for his signature. 

coochiee

Australia's weakest WC team was 1974. All amateurs.
I'd say the 2022 squad personal were on a rough par with 2014 & 2018.
2006 was the Golden Generation and alot of those guys were still there in 2010.

Not sure if we can equate weakness or quality with professional vs amateur especially in 1974. The '74 Australian team still won home/away tie with Iran and a playoff with South Korea. It is true to say they were not as good as the players of today but relative to the rest of the world they were stronger. If we can note that there were only 16 teams in the 1974 World Cup and perhaps say that Australia was ranked 16th. Then that would be a stronger team vs the rest of the FIFA nations than the 2022 squad (The '74 Aus team also snagged a draw with Chile after going a man down).