The Race for Europe

The Race for Europe

For what it's worth, I predict Arsenal by a head, with Newcastle nosing in front of the other Londoners.

Arsenal and Chelsea.

Think Arsenal should be alright for 3rd place. Between us, Spurs and Newcastle for 4th. Hopefully the fact that Spurs and Newcastle both have 2 at home and 3 away will work in our favour with us having 3 at home and 2 away.

All very important games obviously but our games against Arsenal and especially Newcastle are huge.

I'm surprised to see so much support for Spurs. Out of form, out of energy - what's to love, other than an apparently easy run-out?

But I won't leave that as a throw-away remark. Consider these figures on squad rotation. Starts are in all competitions.

Players with 40+ starts

Arsenal: 0
Chelsea: 2
Newcastle: 0
Spurs: 1

Players with 30-39 starts

Arsenal: 7
Chelsea: 6
Newcastle: 3
Spurs: 7

Players with 20-29 starts

Arsenal: 3
Chelsea: 5
Newcastle:3
Spurs: 3

Players with 10-19 starts

Arsenal: 8
Chelsea: 4
Newcastle: 9
Spurs: 5

Like God, I am on the side of fresh players, and the figures indicate that Chelsea and Spurs are looking used up. Wenger and Pardew certainly have their favourites (RVP & Colocinni), but have been more cautious about using them. (Though the Englishman has had the luxury of being able to concentrate on the league.)

If we used Miguel Delaney's PPG figures by half of the season (and this would be something of a mistake, as not all fixture lists are equal), the teams would finish: Arsenal (72), Newcastle (69), Chelsea (66), Spurs (65). I think it'll be closer than that, but the general trend seems clear.Stripes2012-04-17 15:05:47

For the Delaney figures to come right, the results would have to be something like:

As much as I would hate it, I reckon spurs will get the 4th spot, have a very easy draw remaining. But Newcastle managing to knock them out would be fantastic, even Chelsea doing so would be good.

very!

form-wise it looks spot on except for perhaps newcastle - saw some of the game this morning and they are looking very impressive, wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if they picked up maximum points from here, depending on the title race situation when they play man city perhaps

Arsenal may need 3 wins to stay ahead

Is there a spanner in the works if Chelsea win the CL? Then only the top 3 qualify from the Premier league, right?

it's safe to say Tottenham are rooted. 

I was wondering this during the wee small hours of this morning.

Arsenal then Newcastle hopefully.

That is correct. If we win the CL, 4th place (if it's not us) will not be competing in the CL next season. That ruling was made by UEFA after the scousers finished 5th and won the CL. England had 5 teams in the CL the following season but UEFA said it could never happen again.

That said, I believe we have a great chance of finishing 4th anyway. Arsenal will almost certainly take 3rd now but, with Toon getting stuffed at Wigan yesterday and us still to play them at the Bridge, it's wide open if we beat QPR today.

Spurs for 4th, Arsenal for 3rd, Chelsea to finish wherever but take the ECL & Spurs are back in Europa.

Thanks to giant-killing Wigan, there's still tension at the tail end of the season!  

Arsenal (64 points) 
Chelsea (0-0): 65 points
at Stoke (1-1): 66 points
Norwich (3-3): 67 points
at WBA 

Newcastle (59 points) 
Stoke (3-0): 62 points

at Wigan (4-0): 62 points
at Chelsea (0-2): 65 points
Man City (0-2): 65 points
at Everton


Spurs (59 points) 
at QPR (1-0): 59 points
Blackburn (2-0): 62 points
at Bolton (1-4): 65 points
at Aston Villa (1-1): 66 points
Fulham 

Chelsea (57 points) 
at Arsenal (0-0): 58 points
QPR (6-1): 61 points
Newcastle (0-2): 62 points
at Liverpool 
Blackburn 
 
Updated to show the efforts of giant-killing QPR.  Told you so.  And updated again to show the continued efforts of giant-killing Wigan (which out to be an auto-correct).  Once more for Nor-senal, etc.