Final Group Game Permutations

Group A

URU 4pts, GD +3, GF 3

MEX 4, +2, 3

FRA 1, -2, 0

RSA 1, -3, 1

 

Final matches: URU V MEX, FRA V RSA

 

A draw in either match will send Uruguay and Mexico through.

 

If both matches have winners, then the winner of the URU/MEX game is through, and  it depends on the combined winning margins for the second placed team.

 

If Mexico lose and France win, the winning margins need to total at least 5 for France to progress. If the total is 3 or less, Mexico are through. A total of 4, and it comes down to goals scored. In this case, France must score at least 4 more goals than Mexico, otherwise Mexico progress. 

 

If Mexico lose and SA win, the margins need to total 6 or more for SA to progress. 4 or less, Mexico progress. A total of 5 means SA must score at least 3 more goals than Mexico. If they score two more, it comes down to drawing lots. If they only score 1 more, or the same amount, Mexico progress.

 

If Uruguay lose and France win, the margins need to total 6 or more for France to progress. 4 or less, Uruguay progress. A total of 5 means France must score at least 4 more goals than Uruguay. If they score 3 more, it comes down to drawing lots. If France can only manage 1 or 2 more, or the same number of goals, Uruguay will go through.

 

If Uruguay lose and SA win, the margins need to total 7 or more for SA to progress. 5 or less, Uruguay progress. A total of 6 means SA must score at least 3 goals more than Uruguay, otherwise Uruguay progress.

Group B

ARG 6pts, GD +4, GF 5

KOR 3, -1, 3

GRE 3, -1, 2

NIG 0, -2, 1

 

Final matches: ARG V GRE, KOR V NIG

 

Argentina will go through with any combination of results except a loss of 3+ goals and a Korean win that brings the total winning margins to 6 goals.

 

Korea are out if they lose. If Argentina win the other match, any win or draw is enough. If Argentina don't win, then Korea must match the Greeks in terms of result. If Greece win, Korea must win by at least the same margin. Whether or not the required result is a win or a draw, Korea must score no fewer than one less goal than the Greeks. However, if Greece win by 3 or more goals, Korea can win by a score that brings the winning margins to a total of at least 6.

 

Greece must not lose. If they win by 3 or more goals, they progress.

If they win by 1 or 2, or draw, and Korea fail to match this, they are through. If Greece and Korea both win, the Greeks need to win by a wider margin than Korea. In the case of identical winning margins, or both matches being drawn, Greece must score 2 more goals than Korea.

 

Nigeria must win, and hope Greece loses. Any other combination and they go home.

Group C

SVN 4pts, GD +1, GF 3

USA 2, +0, 3

ENG 2, +0, 1

ALG 1, -1, 0

 

Final matches: SVN V ENG, USA V ALG

 

Slovenia progress with a win or a draw. If they lose, they will progress if the other game is a draw. If the USA win, Slovenia are out. If Algeria win, Slovenia will still progress only if both games have one goal margins and Algeria don't score 4+  more goals than Slovenia.

 

USA progress with a win.

If they draw, they progress if England lose, or England draw but fail to score at least 3 goals more than the US. If the England-Slovenia draw is 2 goals higher than the US-Algeria game, lots will be drawn. 

If the US lose, they are out.

 

England go through if they win. If they draw, they progress only if the other match is also draw, and England score 3+ goals more than US. If they score 2 more, lots are drawn. 1 more or the same amount, and they're gone. A loss eliminates them.

 

Algeria must win to have a chance. If Slovenia win or draw the other match, Algeria are through. If England win, Algeria progress if either match is won by 2 or more goals. If both games have 1-goal winning margins, Algeria must also score 4 or more goals than Slovenia.

Group D

GHA 4pts, GD +1, GF 2

GER 3, +3, 4

SER 3, +0, 1

AUS 1, -4, 1

 

Final matches: GHA V GER, SER V AUS

 

Ghana go through with a win or draw.

If they lose, and Serbia draw, Serbia need to score 2 more goals than Ghana to eliminate the Africans. If Serbia win, Ghana are out. If Australia win, Ghana will progress if the combined winning margins total 4 or less. If they total 5, Ghana progress as long as they score at least as many goals as Australia. If Australia score 1 more, lots are drawn. If they score two more, Ghana are out. Ghana also pack their bags if the combined margins total 6 or more.

 

Germany go through if they win. If they lose, they're out.

If they draw and Serbia win, they are out. If Serbia draw, Germany go through.

If Australia win and Germany draw, Germany go through unless Australia win by 8 or more goals, or by 7 goals and score 4 more goals than Germany.

 

Serbia go through if they win and go home if they lose.

If they draw, and Ghana win, they progress.

If they draw and Germany win by 2 or more goals, they will progress. If the Germans win by only 1 goal, Serbia must outscore Ghana by 2 goals or more.

If both games are drawn, Serbia are out.

 

Australia must win to have a chance.

If Ghana win the other match, they are through.

If Germany and Ghana draw, Australia can progress if they win by at least 8 goals. If they win by 7, they must also outscore Germany by 4 goals.

If Germany win, Australia need the combined winning margins to total at least 6. However, if it is 5, they can progress if they also outscore Ghana. One goal more means lots are drawn, 2 or more goals and Australia go through.

Group E

NED 6pts, GD +3, GF 3

JPN 3, +0, 1

DEN 3, -1, 2

CMR 0, -2, 1

 

Final matches: NED V CMR, JPN V DEN

 

At last, a simple group.

 

Netherlands are through, regardless of the last two results

 

Similarly, Cameroon are already eliminated

 

The winner of Japan and Denmark will also go through.

 

If this match is drawn, Japan progress.

 

Not only do Argentina need to lose by 3 goals, but Korea must win by 3 goals. Otherwise Korea miss out to Argentina.

 

If both games are drawn, Serbia are out on goal difference as the Germans go through in second place with Ghana on top.

 

Posts fixed.

Group F

PAR 4pts, GD +2, GF 3

NZL 2, +0, 2

ITA 2, +0, 2

SVK 1, -2, 1

 

Final matches: PAR V NZL, ITA V SVK

 

I put New Zealand ahead of Italy on the table because it looks good.

 

Paraguay are through if they avoid defeat.  If they lose, and the other match is drawn, they will also progress.

If they lose and Slovakia win, they will go through as long as the combined winning margins are 3 or less. If the margins total 4, they progress as long as Slovakia don't outscore them by 3 or more goals. If the margins total 5 or more, they are out.

If they lose and Italy win, they are out.

 

New Zealand  will go through with a win. If they lose they are out.

If they draw and there is a winner in the other match, they are out.

If both matches are drawn, they need to outscore Italy. If both scores are identical, lots will be drawn.

 

Italy will progress with a win. If they lose, they are out.

If they draw and Paraguay win, they go through.

If they draw and New Zealand win, they go home.

If both matches are drawn, they need to outscore New Zealand. If both scores are identical, lots will be drawn.

 

Slovakia must win to go through. If Paraguay win the other match, they are through. If New Zealand win, the combined winning margins must total 5 or more. If they total 4, they must also outscore Paraguay by at least 3 goals.

If they lose or draw, they're gone.

 

From the unedited version.

 

Not that I'm cynical or anything.

 

Interestingly, a drawing of lots was required for the 1968 European Championship Semi-Final between Italy and Russia. A semi-final decided by lots! At that time penalties had never been used for internationals. For the record, Italy won through to the final. The final itself was also drawn, but being the final they found time for a replay rather than use another drawing of lots.

 

I posted elsewhere about lots/coin tosses in World Cup. There have been four instances. Once in the finals to sort out the running order between Ireland and Netherlands in 1990 - but both were through to the second round. Turkey beat Spain via lots in the 54 qualifiers, which Spain would have won if goal difference was being used. Morocco beat Tunisia by lots twice(!) - the 62 qualifiers and the 70 qualifiers.

That's how it should be done. 64 matches in 31 days just isn't enough football. We want more.

 

Another interesting factoid - the NZ - China playoff in 1981 wouldn't have happened if they'd gone to goals scored after goal difference.

We would have gone through automatically.

 

Group G

BRA 6pts, GD +3, GF 5

POR 4, +7, 7

CIV 1, -2, 1

DPK 0, -8, 1

 

Final matches: BRA V POR, CIV V DPK

 

Brazil are already through.

North Korea have been eliminated.

 

The other spot in the next round will go to  either Portugal or Ivory Coast.

Portugal will progress if they avoid defeat. They are also through if they lose, but Ivory Coast fail to beat North Korea.

 

If Portugal lose, and Ivory Coast beat North Korea, both teams will be tied on 4 points.

If Brazil's and Ivory Coast's winning margins total 8 or less, Portugal go through.

If the winning margins total 9, Ivory Coast must outscore Portugal by 7 goals to go through. If they outscore them by 6, lots will be drawn. 5 goals or less sees Portugal go on.

If the margins total 10 or more, Ivory Coast progress.

Group H

CHI 6pts, GD +2, GF 2

ESP 3, +1, 2

SUI 3, +0, 1

HON 0, -3, 0

 

Final matches: CHI V ESP, SUI V HON

 

Chile will go through if the avoid defeat. If they lose, and Honduras win or draw, they are also through.

If Switzerland win, and both games have 1-goal margins, Chile progress as long as Switzerland don't outscore them by 2 or more goals. They are out if either game has a larger winning margin.

 

Spain  are through if they win.

If they draw, and Switzerland fail to win, they progress as well. A Swiss win puts them out.

If they lose, and Switzerland  win or draw, they are out.

If they lose, and Honduras win, they progress as long as the margins are 3 or less. If they total 4, Spain still progress if Honduras fail to outscore them by at least 3 goals.

 

Switzerland can go through if they win, lose or draw, depending on the results of both games.

If they lose by 2 or more goals they are out.

If they lose by 1 goal, and Spain win or draw, they are out

If they lose by 1 goal, and Chile win by 2 goals, they are through if they outscore Spain.

If they lose by 1 goal, and Chile win by 3 or more goals, they are through.

If they draw, they will only progress if Spain lose.

If they win, and Chile win, they are through.

If Switzerland and Spain both win by a solitary goal, Switzerland must also outscore Chile by 2 or more goals.

If Switzerland and Spain both win, and one of those wins is by more than 1 goal, Switzerland progress. 

 

Honduras and Chile must both win to give Honduras any hope.

If this happens, Honduras also need the winning margins of both matches to total 4 or more. If they total exactly 4, Honduras must also outscore Spain by 3 goals. Winning margins totalling 5 or more means Honduras go through without worrying about the number of goals they score.

 

 

 

 

 

I just took that thought off on a tangent:

 

 

I remember reading something about the "Real World Cup" about a month ago, where some boffins went back to 1930 when Uruguay won the first final, and then treated the Cup like a challenge trophy (like the Ranfurly Shield). Therefore the first team to beat Uruguay after the 1930 World Cup became the "Real" World Champions. These guys then went through all the old fixtures and traced the path of this mythical Cup. I think Scotland have managed to hold it the most times through history, and may even be current holders, though given their recent record, I find this hard to believe.

 

It may even be possible that the Real World Champions aren't in South Africa.

 

 

Edit: Corrected number of years - my memory must be failing...