Sports betting thread

I'm sure that there must be other people on this forum who want to discuss odds and strategies on sports betting, particularly on A-League games? I often want to discuss odds and what is good value or not on the main match thread, but feel like most people couldn't care less so would rather keep it to its own thread.

Anyone here bet on the A-League or other markets? I'll start: I feel like 5.7 (betfair) on the Phoenix vs Adelaide this weekend is decent value (and I expect it to move more considering it is currently 6.6 to lay (95% book percentage), and not much market volume as yet.

Edit - mods, could you please change thread title to 'Sports betting thread'... have had a few drinks and got my English a bit bad.

Love laying a bet sadly all i seem to do is donate as i generally chase the odds.In saying that have done reasonably well on exact score bets over the years.Only use TAB as cant trust myself to have self control if i used an overseas agency.

Love a good bet but in the bad habit of when I get a good win, 'reinvesting' it in silly options I don't know much about. 

Used to bet all the time, but with kids and work I felt I didn't have enough time to 'study' and my winnings to a big dip as a result, so I've given it up. Same with poker, you really need to prepare and play a lot to be successful and once you get out of the game it's so hard to get back it.

Plus I've always trusted my instincts more than the math - and that's not usually a winning strategy!

Otherwise known as 'look, it's fine' strategy.

Used to love the punt but gave it away about 10 years ago after getting a little carried away and losing a substantial amount of money. 

Glad you guys all seem sensible about this - no one should ever bet more than they are comfortable to lose (even if it seems like great value!). For what it's worth, most online exchanges/sports books (not sure about NZ TAB) will let you set things such as max weekly deposits, bets, etc... which I'd recommend anyone sets, regardless of how good you think your self control is - chasing losses is a hard mentality not to have.

*cough*... greyhound racing... 

Yeah poker and sports betting are very similar with regards to trying to make a long term profit. Both are beatable long term, but it's only a very small percentage (I'm guessing 1 or 2%) who will be placing a lot of bets and coming out in the positive once you consider rake/vig/commission, etc. 

For a recreational gambler, I think it can be profitable to bet on sports but only if you are very selective about markets you bet on (which means you'll never make big money as you wont see enough good opportunities...). E.g if you bet on each A-League game every week,  unless you are doing a ton of research you are likely burning money, but if you bet on one game every month that stands out as great value (e.g you know their best striker is injured, players will be away on international duty, etc, that the market hasn't adjusted to yet) then it's likely you can turn a profit.

i like the A league for upset bets. My any 4 multi for the weekend

Had some money on Warner at even odds to get less than 46 in first innings... Gotc out for 43... Feels good.

i put him top scorer in first aussie innings so a little nervous now

Yeah that money pretty much goooone 

unless we bowl them out very quickly.....  

Perth paying over $2 on most markets for tonight seems good value - considering our historical record there. Still not going to bet against the nix though! 

You're totally right. If you bet with the brain it makes sense.. If you go with the heart then not so much..

Feel like India over $6 is good value right now. Game is closer than people think... NZ favs for sure but not to that extent... Batting 4th on NZ pitches is very hard.  If India set us over 150 it's game on... Over 200 they are favs. 

Batting last on NZ pitches is probably the easiest from anywhere around the world. 

US sports are the way to bet, especially Basketball. No draws.

Additionally, for A League, it's a ridiculously high scoring league - pretty safe to put 1.5+ goals on all games in a multi to boost the payout

I put a decent amount of money at 40 to 1 for Nix to win the A-League this year near start of season, was standing to have a very nice payout if we kept up our form (could cash out at any point, likely wouldn't of had the balls to hold the full bet if we actually made the major semi final or particularly GF). Anyway, when I read NZ had banned entry into the country without 14 days isolation I instantly cashed out for only a smallish profit before the market caught up as we are likely the team most affected. Not sure if I thought it through or if I made the right choice, but I'll have some regret if the Nix go on to win this year - still want them to win though!

NFL football sounds like a great game if you are into live betting and understand the game - I have no idea what's going on though, so will not bet on it.

Regarding football, I don't know the math behind it but I had a friend years ago who successfully bet sports for a living (mostly the EPL) and one of his rules was never bet on the draw.

What can I bet on with sports all shut down? 

aussie horse racing still going.

I wonder what odds they were offering for this all happening?

Surprised no markets are yet offering a line on when a vaccine will be found. 

Surely some English bookmakers will have some odds on that?
Usually you can bet on absolute crap like when such and such royal will be married etc...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/21/coronavirus-and-sports-what-gamblers-are-betting-on-in-the-void.html

My favourite part: "Bovada, a sportsbook company based in Costa Rica, began taking bets on the maximum temperatures in various cities around the country."

Getting murdered on A-League betting this year... very hard to predict so far!

Yep, some pretty unpredictable results everywhere.

Yeah I blanked every A League game this long weekend (most predictable result was nix losing but I can't bring myself to bet against them), which is as bad as I can remember. I'm relying on England to pull off an away win vs India in the cricket to salvage the week! Strange times indeed.