This weekend looks like it's going right down to the wire. I can see Hearts grinding out a narrow draw in Invercargill.
Looking at the bigger picture, history suggests that whenever Southland has had three teams competing in the SPL, the overall strength of those sides has tended to be diluted. For that reason, two teams seems to be the sweet spot for now. I'm also not a huge fan of combined teams. They can work in the short term and solve immediate challenges, but in my experience they rarely prove sustainable over the long haul.
You could also argue that the Irish experiment did little to strengthen local football in Otago. I struggle to remember any of those imported players filtering back into local club football. For me, the real "jump the shark" moment came when the top striker in the South Island League was imported south, employed by Southern Football, though was able/chose to play for Cash Tech. That seemed to send a mixed message about the direction of the game.
It's also worth remembering that Southern Football has previously reduced the SPL to eight teams, and in hindsight that decision didn't deliver the outcomes many had hoped for. We have been down that road before.
There are also some inconsistencies in how participation requirements are viewed. Technically, Wānaka doesn't have a second team, so by the letter of the rules its participation in the South Island League could be questioned. DCR was fined over coaching badge requirements, although there is certainly more to that story. Green Island and Mosgiel both pulled out due to squad depth and financial pressures, while University struggled to consistently meet the competition requirements.
At the same time, Northern benefits from external financial support that helps offset some of the costs associated with competing at that level. I heard that entry fee for next season is round $35k.
All of this points to a broader issue. The challenge isn't simply deciding how many teams should be in the league. The real question is how to create a sustainable competition where clubs can consistently meet the standards required both on and off the field. History suggests that reducing numbers alone isn't the answer, and neither are short-term fixes. Building strong, sustainable clubs has to remain the priority.