Have the odds for the coming A-League season been released in NZ?
Sports Tab in Aus is rating us as a $21 chance. Great odds!
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Aussie Sports Tab odds. (top 4 finish in brackets)
Sydney FC $3 ($1.18)
Melbourne Victory ($3.75 (1.40)
Adelaide United $6 ($1.55)
Central Coast $7 ($1.65)
Queensland $8 ($1.65)
Newcastle $13 ($2)
Perth $21 ($4.50)
Phoenix $21 ($4.75)
Hard to argue with 20s to win it all -- 8th last year and all that -- but the Phoenix look great value for a top four finish. They weren't that far off the pace last season and certainly offer better value than CCM, Queenland or Newcastle, who have not recruited as well in the off-season and look way too short for my money.
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theyve tipped us for the wooden spoon there. But remember it is aussie...they are unlikely to be on us,so higher odds are likely to be given by the TAB over there...
Thought having us at last ($4.75) for a top 4 spot was a bit ridiculous
Allegedly
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Aussie Sports Tab odds. (top 4 finish in brackets)
Sydney FC $3 ($1.18)
Melbourne Victory ($3.75 (1.40)
Adelaide United $6 ($1.55)
Central Coast $7 ($1.65)
Queensland $8 ($1.65)
Newcastle $13 ($2)
Perth $21 ($4.50)
Phoenix $21 ($4.75)
Hard to argue with 20s to win it all -- 8th last year and all that -- but the Phoenix look great value for a top four finish. They weren't that far off the pace last season and certainly offer better value than CCM, Queenland or Newcastle, who have not recruited as well in the off-season and look way too short for my money.
are you serious? they finished dead last.
they have yet to prove they are capable of finishing in the top four - pre season hasnt even started yet, you cant predict a teams going to finish in the top 4 by their off season signings - mean come on they have only played under 20s, mainnland, western suburbs and wellington united ffs - hardly proven sides to play and rate against!!!
these odds are spot on. for now.
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You can so predict a side to finish in the top 4 from offseason signings. You can look at the squads now and say that on paper these sides look good,and these sides dont. Actual performances during the season can change that of course.
In fact,id say your far more off by predicting we will finish last based soley on last seasons performances. If you take into account our new squad AND the performances of last season,then surely that is a more accurate prediction?
Allegedly
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you cant predict a teams going to finish in the top 4 by their off season signings
Interseting, because that is EXACTLY what the bookmakers have done. Why do you think Sydney are favourites?
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I think you'll see I mentioned they finished last in season one... I just put it more politely than that :-)
I don't think the order is far off the mark -- if I were framing the market I'd put Newcastle ahead of Queensland and the Nix ahead of Perth -- but I do think odds of $2.50-$3 are more indicative of the chance of a place in the top four than $4.75.
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You can so predict a side to finish in the top 4 from offseason signings. You can look at the squads now and say that on paper these sides look good,and these sides dont. Actual performances during the season can change that of course.
In fact,id say your far more off by predicting we will finish last based soley on last seasons performances. If you take into account our new squad AND the performances of last season,then surely that is a more accurate prediction?
did you have your beer googles on?
last years performances were nothing to rate us a top 4 finsish this year with new players. i don't predict wel finish last personally - but i think the odds are spot on.
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I didnt say the odds were wrong,but except maybe the top 4 should be a bit lower.
I also said your way more off the mark predicting we we would finish looking soley at last seasons performances (as you just did...again),but put to you the question that surely its far more accurate to make a prediction based on both last seasons results AND the quality of offseason signings,to say that on paper this is where i predict this team to finish?
Rather than just looking at last season...If you did this, then you would predict exactly the same as the final standings last season wouldnt you...this is what the TAB clearly havent done
Allegedly
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We could easily have been in the top 4 if we didn't repeatedly give away goals in the first and last few minutes of games. With strong defensive signings like McKain and Durante I think we can predict a much more solid defense and if we can stop giving these gimme goals away we'll be very much in contention for the top 4.
Some people sure are negative for fever members. I find your lack of faith disturbing.
Nickel2008-07-17 12:03:52
Some people sure are negative for fever members. I find your lack of faith disturbing.
Nickel2008-07-17 12:03:52
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I find it a bit of a stretch to say that we could have easily made it into the top 4...if only we hadnt conceded so many goals. Its like losing 10-0 every game and saying,well...if we conceded 10 less and scored 1 more in every game,we would have won the league...results are what they are.
I get your general point however,that the we do seem to have a lot more of a solid defence this season (clebo,old and o'dor gone..),and even a few more options in attack to boot! So this should go some way to getting us up the table,and the top 4 is a real possibilty
Allegedly
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If those odds are, according to some, accurate based on last season then why are Melbourne at such short odds? They weren't exactly lighting the A League up last season.
You could argue that Queensland, Newcastle and CCM should be at shorter odds than the Victory if last season's performance is the only barometer of how things will pan out this year.
I'm very tempted to slap a few bucks on us finishing in the top 4 at those odds.
Jag2008-07-17 12:42:47Apparently I'm apathetic, but I couldn't care less.
"Being a Partick Thistle fan sets you apart. It means youre a free thinker. It also means your team has no money." Tim Luckhurst, The Independent, 4th December 2003
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I wouldn't look at it as a negative thing lads, so we're favourite for the wooden spoon, just means we're paying the best money to finish in the top four. $4.75 isn't bad money, I might go put a lazy $20 on it next time I'm at the 4 Kings.
We can laugh at the Aussie TAB all the more when our lads go storming into the top 4!
Fitz
We can laugh at the Aussie TAB all the more when our lads go storming into the top 4!
Fitz
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We can laugh at the Aussie TAB all the more when our lads go storming into the top 4!
I think that's one thing we can all agree on!
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I'm pushing all in on us making the top four.
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I wouldn't look at it as a negative thing lads, so we're favourite for the wooden spoon, just means we're paying the best money to finish in the top four. $4.75 isn't bad money, I might go put a lazy $20 on it next time I'm at the 4 Kings.
We can laugh at the Aussie TAB all the more when our lads go storming into the top 4!
Fitz
We can laugh at the Aussie TAB all the more when our lads go storming into the top 4!
Fitz
Exactly. Want to make the odds look bad? then go and stick your $$$ on the Nix and get some easy cash. Can't complain at being last in the odds, I'd be happier putting a $20 on them at $4.75 than see them at $3 and be happy they are being recognised for off season signings. Take the Aussies money off them!!
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I just don't know how Perth can be expeced to finish ahead of us????
They lost their two best players and have signed poorly, Dadi is way past it for f sake.
STUPID, PLAIN STUPID, THEY WILL LOSE ALOT OF MONEY ON THIS ONE
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well....the odds are ultimately all pretty even...so cant say they would lose anything out of it at all
Allegedly
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I can't see the point of getting wound up about it.
The odds have as much to do with a risk assessment by the bookies as to what money they will take on various options. They will take more money from Sydney fans than they will from Phoenix fans, simply because they are an Australian bookie.
They need to minimise the risk to them of a Sydney win so they open them short.
I would expect the NZ TAB to open the Phoenix shorter and the Aus sides slightly longer... unless they just copy the Aus odds.
Hard News2008-07-18 12:09:14
The odds have as much to do with a risk assessment by the bookies as to what money they will take on various options. They will take more money from Sydney fans than they will from Phoenix fans, simply because they are an Australian bookie.
They need to minimise the risk to them of a Sydney win so they open them short.
I would expect the NZ TAB to open the Phoenix shorter and the Aus sides slightly longer... unless they just copy the Aus odds.
Hard News2008-07-18 12:09:14
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I would expect the NZ TAB to open the Phoenix shorter and the Aus sides slightly longer... unless they just copy the Aus odds.
Which would be a silly silly thing for them to do, and the odds would likely change to reflect the NZ market very quickly (ie shorter odds for the Nix).
Kind of like how last year the TAB carried the odds in the NZFC from prev year and had HB paying $10 against Chch in the opening round.
Edit...
l
l
l
/ Exactly what he said.
bigtobz2008-07-18 13:18:18
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The TAB here will have shorter Nix odds, only because of the loyalty factor. More kiwis will put money on them meaning the pool would have to be shared by more should they pay out.
It will be interesting as they still have to make the opening odds attractive enough to encourage the money to come in. Look for them to be about 5th or 6th - just below middle of the pack when they put the odds up.
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$4.75 to make play-offs are superb odds.
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I was in the bookies at lunch - Nix and Perth both the longest @ $18 to win the comp
When Hibs, went up, to win the Scottish Cup - I wisnae there - furfuxake!
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Beat me to itl NZ TAB odds are up now, competition winner only. Presumably the $3 difference between the NZ and Oz odds is the exchange rate. 
Sydney $3.25
Melbourne $5.50
Queensland $6
CCM $7
Adelaide $7
Newcastle $9
Perth $18
Nix $18
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Presumably the $3 difference between the NZ and Oz odds is the exchange rate.
Yeah right! (hence the smiley, I guess)
TAB have always been a bunch of soft-cocks when setting odds. The Internet is your friend, my friend.
$4.75 for a play-off place has to represent good odds. I'm thinking the TAB will be hard-pressed to offer more than $2.75 - $3.00 when it comes to play-off spot.
Best to bet before the weekend, because if the lads beat the Mariners (which is not beyond the realms of possibility 
), or if we give them a jolly good botty spanking (slightly less likely, but could happen) there could be severe odds rejigging.
), or if we give them a jolly good botty spanking (slightly less likely, but could happen) there could be severe odds rejigging.Get into it!
Turfmoore2008-07-18 20:04:46I know, I know, its serious!
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typical aussies underrating us.. lets teach them a lesson on the field this season and score some money in the process!
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The TAB is only giving odds for champions, not for a top four finish :-(
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NZ's TAB has a much higher profit margin than online bookies, hence why the spreads are so garbage and the odds they offer are not the true odds of that event happening, they are the odds they set to try and make money based on betting patterns, and the price they can offload their exposure on the international marketjames dean2008-07-19 02:15:19
Normo's coming home
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I'm pushing all in on us making the top four.
do you remeber this forum????
wingback - i hope you didnt actually go all in?
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