WPM 2022/23 Squad Speculation, Confirmation and Mutual Termination

• AucklandPhoenix

  Can you guys possibly also do the same comparison for Stefan and Sail on the all whites thread?

• I'd love to do it for you but I can't. I'm  really sorry. I subscribe for video and match reports of the Nix, that's my limit. It's too expensive. 

• Jazzy Jeff

  Those stats don't show that Pennington is a better player, they show that Pennington and Ugarkovic are different players.  Pennington's interceptions this season were fantastic, noticeably much better at reading the opposition team defensively than Lewis and Rufer IMO. However his passing was the poorest of the three, and is considerably worse than Ugarkovics. Across both of those games, 10% difference in passing accuracy is huge,especially as Pennington isn't particularly creative or progressive with the ball. He is prone to having flashes of madness and jumping into rash challenges, and he's also probably less mobile than Ugarkovic too. I want to make it clear that I really do rate Pennington, but there's no way he's a miles better than Ugarkovic yet. 

• Yes. I look forward to watching Ugarkovic next season.
• I've sided with Pennington because I thought that a lot of the early criticism was extraordinarily unfair. And because I've spent half of my life in Italy. 
• My other favourite, Piscopo,  gets the credit he deserves. Pennington does not.

• Jazzy Jeff

  Those stats don't show that Pennington is a better player, they show that Pennington and Ugarkovic are different players.  Pennington's interceptions this season were fantastic, noticeably much better at reading the opposition team defensively than Lewis and Rufer IMO. However his passing was the poorest of the three, and is considerably worse than Ugarkovics. Across both of those games, 10% difference in passing accuracy is huge,especially as Pennington isn't particularly creative or progressive with the ball. He is prone to having flashes of madness and jumping into rash challenges, and he's also probably less mobile than Ugarkovic too. I want to make it clear that I really do rate Pennington, but there's no way he's a miles better than Ugarkovic yet. 

   
• Just to answer the Pennington "not particularly creative" bit. Off the top of my head:
• - he scored against Perth 2-1
• - he won a penalty, and won the ball to start the play for 2 goals against Western United 4-1
• - He intercepted a pass out of defence and started the play for a goal against WSW 2-1
• 5 Examples of goals he was involved in during his 10 match run as sole DM. Maybe there were more.

• ballane

  Dont have anything against Pennington and thought he has done okay but you dont mention the times he either lost the ball or just passed aimlessly to nobody because he certainly did that a number of times. Agree he was good at getting interceptions not so good with what he did with after though. Thing is with stats yep they can be helpful and make players look good but some times its how they are interrupted that i struggle with. 
  You have one player whose stats show he had twice the number of completed passes and more interceptions than another player. That dosnt mean he had the better game i think it depends very much on where in the game those things happened.
  Hopefully Talay can work his magic on his midfield and we have some genuine options. Also hopefully we get someone to replace Piscopo who spends more time on the field as opposed to the supposed 54% of available game time he did  and is able to offer more consistency.

• I agree with most of what you say. There's no point me talking about misplaced passes to yellow flags or wild passes to the opposition. This what everyone sees and discusses. That's the reason the stats are so important. They don't make him "look good", they explain what he gives to the team apart from the clear negatives. 
• The cup run and the 18 point league run didn't come by luck or with an inept DM.

• Ninja

  kungfu panda

  WSW  V  Wellington phoenix 05/05/22
  
  Pennington:
  
  Successful pass rate:  84%
  Successful recoveries:  10
  Duels/Interceptions won:  23 (Balls won)
  
  Ugarkovic
  
  Successful pass rate: 93%
  Successful recoveries: 2
  Duels/Interceptions won:  13 (Balls won)
  
  And for Metallegs. We had 38% possession. In the first match 33% possession. 
  
  Whatever the possession or pass rate, Pennington's stats are better IMHO.

  
  You're breaking the cardinal rule of statistics.
  
  You cannot make a rational interpretation with 1 or 2 samples, there is too much variance. In statistics, you generally need at least 30 samples before you can start to make reasonable judgements from data. 
  
  I'm not saying you're incorrect, you might be right. But you need to look at these stats over a season, say 20+ games minimum, to get a better idea of who MIGHT be the better player head to head. Even this is still just a guideline, because your stats can be inflated or deflated based on who your teammates are. For example, put Ronaldo in the Norwich team last season, and he may have only got 5-10 goals due to lack of service.
  
  But anyway, I'd be interested to see who out of Pennington and Ugarcovic is the better performed with stats accumulated from 20-30+ games, not 1 or 2 games.

• Yes I know that you can't. I was asked for stats. I gave what I had. I only have WPM match statistics. 
• To be fair on me, I made that clear.

• Ninja

  By the stats that I've just posted (from Sofascore, you can look this up), Ugarcovic pretty much outperforms Pennington on every single one. This is over the whole season, and the stats are measured per game.
  
  Also if you go on the site and look at the heatmaps of both players, Ugarcovic covers much more ground, including in the opposition half. And his rating is 7.17 over the season, compared with Pennington's 6.79.

• That's very useful. Thanks.
• I'll go with: head to head matches Pennington was better.
• Full season Pennington fell short on A-League experience.

Quite a few times when I've been watching Ugarkovic play, specially for the Jets, he controlled the midfield. I think that is what Uffie is after.

• Oi Oi Edgecumbe

  Quite a few times when I've been watching Ugarkovic play, specially for the Jets, he controlled the midfield. I think that is what Uffie is after.

  I'll totally accept that in the Statstistics discussion we had that over this season Ugarkovic's stats were better than Pennington's but now we're exaggerating. In the two recent matches we had, Pennington as sole DM was facing Ugarkovic, Rodwell and Baccus. 3 A-League stars. We had a very young team and no official CF playing in the 2nd game, and Waine in the 1st. In no way did any of their 3 star players dominate or control the midfield. In the Duels Pennington either won or was equal to all 3. Baccus was inept in the 2nd match and was subbed at 54 minutes. 

• Ninja

  kungfu panda

  The stats show the picture to be different from what most posters on here would like them to show. So now the stats are twisted.
  Actually stats build a picture. Each individual stat does not show the full picture.
  If you're a scout, you compare what you see with the stats.

  
  I agree, stats do not show the full picture. There are so many different variables at play, for example - is the coach getting the best out of the player, does the player fit into the team's structure/tactics/formation, is he supported by other good players, did he just have a one-off stormer (or terrible) season?
  
  It's impossible to paint a definite picture with stats. BUT.. they are still very useful, and cannot be ignored. For example, if a player has shocking stats over 3-5 seasons, you can be fairly sure that they are consistently bad.

• I understand what you've been saying and I'd totally agree in most cases. In this comparison between Ugarkovic and Pennington, I don't. The reason that I don't is that Pennington is new to the A-League, he's probably stepped up from Italy's third level, he's only had 10 games as a DM (including in Italy I think). The season statistics were bound to favour Ugarkovic. The recent head to head shows a different picture and I would argue, a more accurate picture. I would also argue that although the 18 points in 10 games was a team statistic. It's been quite an unusual statistic in the Nix recent past and it came about immediately Pennington was the sole DM, I doubt that it was coincidence.
•  I understand that he was overwhelmed by the midfields of MC, CCM and MV. This was in my opinion a team issue though rather than a Pennington issue.