Wellington Phoenix Men

YF - A-League -AFL -war

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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
YF - A-League -AFL -war

Socceroo/ Mariner / Whangarei

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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
YF. below you see a thread I posted in the Melbourne & Mariners forum.
 
It concerns the A-League and is about the war on football declared by the AFL. The NRL, after years of ridicule, are trying to establish relationships. Union is losing it�s most prized possession to football in that the demographic of the private schools in Sydney has changed from pro-union to pro-football.

 
So I through why is the AFL so keen on this war and where does football stand.

I would be interested in if the Nix's have similar issues and if with the information in the post below is any help to the Nix.

..................------------------...............----------------
 
Midfielder from the Mariners and I have been looking and posted a bit on the code wars and read a bit on your forum of late.

Seems to me you poor buggers have AFL everywhere down there- from afar it appears as if the Melbourne Media see it as their kinda of duty to promote AFL. Certainly nobody questions what they say just take it as read.

Very difficult to argue with and I assume get a message across,��.. I say�..�let facts be your friend����not hype.

To assist you I through I would repost part of a post I posted in the war code thread, also to give you some facts to challenge the media in Melbourne.

A famous general once said �never under estimate your enemy� which most know�.. but the general went on to also say �never over estimate your enemy�. Within the context of enemy of AFL & NRL, war whatever name we care to give it.

Look at the state population figures, then look at the strength of the NRL as it is not down on its knees simply waiting for someone to make the final kill in fact it is growing. AFL for all its talk IMO is no where near as powerful as they believe they are, and most believe they are.

Australia population is as follows:

NRL
Population NSW��7, 049
Population QLD�� 4, 257
Population ACT�� ...355

Total pop����.11, 660��or 55% of the population

AFL
Population VIC�...5, 266
Population SA ��1, 604
Population TAS�..�.505
Population WA�..2, 058
Population NT���207

Total pop����9, 600���.or 45% of the population.

Total Aust���..21, 260

There are some differences that need to be adjusted for the southern towns in NSW are AFL towns and there would be some cross overs�s in NRL states & AFL states to the other code. Also NT is populated mainly from NSW & QLD so the AFL claim that it is a AFL town while not incorrect is way overstated

Adjusting for the above differences

Total NRL ����������.11, 660
Less Southern Towns ��.��. 250
Less Converts NRL states�.�..500
Plus Converts AFL states�.......75

Total NRL ����������..10, 985

Total AFL�����������10, 274

Total Australia ����..���21, 260

Its clear NRL has the population base over AFL even through my number especially the 500, 000 & the 75, 000 are guesses it would not be to far from the truth.

These figures in themselves overstate the AFL hold as they are based on the 2004 census and pro rated to the current population when in fact the NSW, ACT & QLD grew much quicker than the southern states.

In fact by 2012 the figure is expected to read 56% to 44%, a reasonably big difference.

To the next falsehood in these figures with no adjustment made, for the growth in Perth�s population is more from NSW & QLD, thus people exposed to NRL not AFL. The NT population has a very high % of NSW & QLD people, thus although more than likely a AFL territory it would only just be, and could become a NRL if they wished to fight for it.

The problem for the AFL is they are in what marketers call a mature phase of the market. The AFL market share in the southern states is falling almost impossible to see growth whereas decline is almost inevitable (assuming football. League & union) will take some market share.

There seems to be a belief in the southern states that the NRL is in the same market phase but much more advanced along the path than AFL. Whereas in fact the NRL is expanding �����.how ���.simply because regional NSW & QLD are the fastest growing parts of Australia, but also and here is where AFL can get no where near is in PNG & NZ.

Everyone in both NZ & PNG have a NRL team,����the population of these countries is PNG 5, 130 million & NZ 4. 263 million. The 9.393 million people is more in pure numbers than the southern states. The NRL own PNG and are expanding in NZ���..both will add to future revenue streams and for NRL growth. The NRL plan a PNG side by 2014.

The NRL have decided, after years of ridicule, to establish relationships with football as they do not wish to fight both. NRL words not mine; to find areas of mutual benefit. This I am sure was not seen in the AFL master plan. Essentially two codes essentially working together were they can, and thus the old divide and conquer rule which the AFL have played very well in Sydney by always saying to league supporters �football� is your enemy will wash no more.

Also and not well known is the NRL on an Australia wide count i.e. count regional Australia other than the AFL capital approach actually have more TV viewers. Why do you think Fox choice League and not AFL in its code battle to put Optus out of business. For proof see attached web references;

http://www.crikey.com.au/Media-Arts-...expansion.html

http://www.thinktv.com.au/SiteMedia/...6361a65a7d.pdf

The AFL is undoubtedly the most professionally run best connected sport in Australia, it has the biggest media deal, the most free to air, the biggest crowds. The best media, the most profitable. Accept all this ����..however��..that does not mean they are the most ready for the coming years.

My Dad had a saying there is only one thing worst than always talking bullsh*t and that is believing your own bullsh*t. The AFL as I see them actually believe their own bullsh*t. Here are some examples;

� The 150 year of AFL when if fact if anything it would have been a rugby game of some sort. Even heard A D on offsiders today saying a new club playing one of the 150 year clubs ,,,,,,,,,,,, errrrrrrrr vomit it was a rugby match for F sake

� They are the top TV rating sport when the NRL are,

� The junior numbers��cough, cough errrrrrrrrrrrrrrr anyone who signs a Aus Kick even the free ones given away are counted.

� That the draft system actually works when in fact in the latter parts of the season it is a race to the bottom for some to get draft picks.

� The AFL has a growing international expansion program�����and profile���.my arse it has none.

� AFL has enough quality players to set up the two extra teams, errrrrrrrrrr cough, cough, errrrrrrrrr, sorry ��.what ���.you must be kidding, Simple as the AFL has 44 players per tea, and thus need 792 quality players. Errrrrrrrrr cough on there junior strength say its 400, 000 which it is not this means they need to find 792 players in 400, 000 that is 1 player in every 505 players is of enough quality to play at that level. If you study any sport player numbers and get a ratio to those players good enough to earn a living from playing then it is way way way above the 505 and as we all know the AFL number on junior is inflated but never questioned, simply they do not have enough players.


For AFL to continue to succeed they need the billion dollar deal and the unchallenged hype they go on with, like the 150 years of AFL, and biggest TV rating is pure BS.

Football needs to challenge the AFL hype ����..how����is the difficult. Maybe letters off to Media watch (small part at best), call talk back (helps if enough people call and call often enough).

My suggestion is to send to as many advertising agencies, Key financial people in media organisations especially the overseas owners of 7 , 9 & 10. As sports journalism in Melbourne as I see it is a AFL player who can talk and present themselves well. The same to Fox & Telstra who are major players, if enough people own shares in these companies ask question that these facts present and at key decision maker level let the facts be known. Another maybe good area is the Australia Financial Review.

This is not to say football cannot expand and we have a lot in our arsenal that also needs to put out their:- 8 national teams, World Cup places for men�s and women�s teams, Olympic teams, the Asian Champions league, Pan Asian tournament.

This also needs to go to the same people, as well as analysis below detailing how football�s Australia wide appeal could affect ratings and as with league there are markets in PNG & NZ to increase revenue streams.

If we draw a table of what percentage of the national audience do you need to draw to obtain an audience of say 2 ,000, 000 on TV.

Code �������..Base�������.% of Total needed for 2, 000, 000

AFL����. ��.. 10, 274���.�����19% of the viewing base needs to watch

NRL �������.10, 985��������. 18% of the viewing base needs to watch

A-League���...21, 260��.������.9% of the viewing base needs to watch


In summary don�t overestimate the AFL, don�t underestimate the NRL,����.certainly don�t underestimate football products. BUT MOST IMPORTANTLEY SPREAD THE WORD ABOUT THE HYPE IN AREAS THAT HURT.
Midfielder2008-04-13 20:09:39

Socceroo/ Mariner / Whangarei

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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
^SYNOPSIS PLEASE.
 
 
"In summary don�t overestimate the AFL, don�t underestimate the NRL,����.certainly don�t underestimate football products. BUT MOST IMPORTANTLEY SPREAD THE WORD ABOUT THE HYPE IN AREAS THAT HURT."
 
OK.  Gotcha.  "Certainly don�t underestimate football products."  Er, some people think the A-League merc is cheap in everything but price.  Dunno.
 
 
Stevo2008-04-13 21:08:58
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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Stevo
 
The AFL signed a 750 million 5 year deal with Ch's 7 & 10 in OZ.
 
They enjoy media football could only dream off...............yet they are saying ... football is a big danger to them. Then about a month ago they declared war on all other football codes and were well advanced in their plans to have a second team in western Sydney and a gold coast team.
 
AFL have over the the years have put the boot in big time to football.
 
Given they declared war on NRL, Union & Football I wondered why and why so public and in Melbourne it is news each day in the sports pages and reported almost like they were at war in western & the Gold Coast.
 
I through why and then looked at the AFL and found that because of population patterns and forcast population movernment in Australia could have AFL needing massive % rating per potential audience viewer.
 
Whereas football has the whole country to aim at, plus football in Australia can further on sell its product to NZ & PNG, like league does now.
 
Thats when I said all the AFL stuff is hype based on BS and they may have the biggest TV deal, they certaintly get the best crowds, but they are also no where near as strong as they think they are.
 
Thus tell all the facts about AFL and don't let them keep getting away with the hype.

Socceroo/ Mariner / Whangarei

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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Um... PNG have an NRL team???
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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Midfielder wrote:
I through why and then looked at the AFL and found that because of population patterns and forcast population movernment in Australia could have AFL needing massive % rating per potential audience viewer.

�

Thats when I said all the AFL stuff is hype based on BS and they may have the biggest TV deal, they certaintly get the best crowds, but they are also no where near as strong as they think they are.

�

Thus tell all the facts about AFL and don't let them keep getting away with the hype.


Sorry, just had to correct this appalling piece of spelling above - thought

Plus, if they have the biggest TV deal and crowds then their assertions are not based on BS

And really, this conjecture does not apply to us, as AFL isnt a factor herehepatitis2008-04-13 23:00:49
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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

The hype of the WC here in Aus really grew the sport here and i imagine it will with the A-League kicking off and more media coverage of football...at times.

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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
why does the afl have to be in competition with the a-league. the seasons overlap maybe for 6 weeks. i also dont see why in australia there isnt room for more than one code. three oval ball codes have done alright there professionally for the last 10 years and the a-league is proving there is room in the market.
why cant the world all just be lollipops and rainbows and everyone exist peacefully

www.kiwifromthecouch.blogspot.com

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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
bopman wrote:
why does the afl have to be in competition with the a-league. the seasons overlap maybe for 6 weeks. i also dont see why in australia there isnt room for more than one code. three oval ball codes have done alright there professionally for the last 10 years and the a-league is proving there is room in the market.
why cant the world all just be lollipops and rainbows and everyone exist peacefully


because people habitually do things that are against their best interests
I like tautologies because I like them.
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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Cosimo wrote:
bopman wrote:
why does the afl have to be in competition with the a-league. the seasons overlap maybe for 6 weeks. i also dont see why in australia there isnt room for more than one code. three oval ball codes have done alright there professionally for the last 10 years and the a-league is proving there is room in the market.
why cant the world all just be lollipops and rainbows and everyone exist peacefully


because people habitually do things that are against their best interests
 
TBH they have been top dog for about 12 years now, and after the last TV contract and having two TFA stations showing their games they don't want to loose that influence.
 
I don't think the AFL believed the NRL would recover from the SLW to the extent it has or the football in OZ would ever get professionally run.
 
Now they are faced with two growing sports when there own sport is in a mature phase of growth in the southern states. The population  problem for them is simple being there are more people in NSW & QLD by 2010 estimated to be NSW, ACT, QLD 56% of the population leaving the AFL with only 44% of the population in AFL  heart land.
 
The A-League has them worried and the NZ via Nix's being as successful as they have been has added that llittle bit of extra pressure.
Midfielder2008-04-14 12:53:37

Socceroo/ Mariner / Whangarei

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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
I think the dynamic over here is quite interesting at the moment.

The Nix have created a lot of football interest and the Beckham game, while for the purest supporter came across as a little gimmicky, gave the sport quite a lot of mainstream exposure and credibility. It may be my imagination but I think that there is significantly more and better media coverage of football in NZ now than in the recent past.

I also think the Nix have done a good job of keeping themselves in the public eye with regular press releases of interest since the end of last season.

On top of that, NZF have the perfect opportunity right now to put their house in order and put a team in place to take the sport onwards and upwards. Whether they do is another matter and they are all too likely to balls it up again.

Obviously the AFL is not a factor over here (and on a personal note I just don't get the interest, it's a bl**dy stupid sport anyway).

The NRL obviously does fairly well here with the Warriors and I don't see them competing directly with football for the same market so I am sure they are happy to peacefully co-exist.

Which leaves rugby. Rugby has some real issues to deal with at the moment. Fall out from the WC, a steady stream of top players leaving for Japan or Europe, provincial unions in financial difficulties, a mediocre Air NZ Cup with too many teams and a Super 14 that is failing to inspire the public who, with the exception of 1 or 2 games, have stayed away, dramatically falling playing numbers in key age groups (e.g. high school players) and the strength of the NZ$ which is eroding their revenue as their TV rights and sponsorship contracts are all in US$.

Some of these issues they can do very little about in the short term. For example, the current SANZAR contract runs until 2010 so they can't try to make changes to the Super 14 until then.

Which all adds up to them having no time to be worried about how well football is doing.

So football in NZ finds itself with a fantastic opportunity right now. If the Nix continue to do things well operationally (and with Tony P at the helm there is no reason to think that they won't) and make the on-field improvements we all hope for then there is plenty of reason for optimism. In fact considering the NZRFU can't do anything to the Super 14 until 2010, I would suggest that the A League should strongly consider a second NZ team before they can. And the smart money suggests they stay away from Auckland (too much history, plus competing with the Warriors and Breakers) so go for a team in CHCH in 2010 before rugby can grab the public attention again with the WRC in 2011.
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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
I'm a little less gung-ho than i was in the first few Nix - history making - months but I do agree Malky that rugby does have some issues and that the Nix have raised football's profile in NZ (and spectacularly so in Wellington).
 
Not sure if Chch could get a team up and running - in a sustainable way before 2011 (would love to be proved wrong on that though).
 
Beyond that, I do still think football will gradually gain credibility across all of NZ - particularly if Football NZ sorts itself out. (reasons -=  Phoenix/A-league, aussie world cup bid, our Olympics teams, changing population structure in NZ, influence and marketting power of EPL, and not forgetting  'blind optimism').
 
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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Malky & Tigers
 
Having a second NZ team in the first 12 I cannot see, but I can see the  13 & 14 spots when that happens in guessing 8 to 10 years is up for grabs.
 
The issues you raised  about union in NZ are interesting because the feeling in Australia is NZ rugby is so strong in NZ that its daylight second then league then football so was very interested in what you said.

Socceroo/ Mariner / Whangarei

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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Midfielder wrote:
Malky & Tigers
 
Having a second NZ team in the first 12 I cannot see, but I can see the  13 & 14 spots when that happens in guessing 8 to 10 years is up for grabs.
 
The issues you raised  about union in NZ are interesting because the feeling in Australia is NZ rugby is so strong in NZ that its daylight second then league then football so was very interested in what you said.
 
you are probably right, but it may not stay that way for ever - he said from far away "planet tigers"
 
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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Football is the highest participated sport in NZ amongst school children, even surpassing Rugby Union.
Proud to have attended the first 175 Consecutive "Home" Wellington Phoenix "A League" Games !!

The Ruf, The Ruf, The Ruf is on Fire!!

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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Must be pretty close at senior level these days as well, even the regional base is dying in some areas.

Certainly in Wellington (if the Dom Post weekend draws are any indication) there appear to be significantly more footballers than Rugby players.

(Note, this is not a dig at Rugby, merely a statement of my observations).

How's my driving? - Whine here

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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
How many people here play rugby or/and league?
 
Has anything changed in your league or in other leagues. IE less players, less sponsers ect?
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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Interesting too, to see the response to the Beckham/Galaxy training at the Ring of Fire
 
 
 

 
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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Hard News wrote:
Must be pretty close at senior level these days as well, even the regional base is dying in some areas.Certainly in Wellington (if the Dom Post weekend draws are any indication) there appear to be significantly more footballers than Rugby players.(Note, this is not a dig at Rugby, merely a statement of my observations).


At welly coll they are 12 age grade teams plus 15 XI's thats 27 teams compared to the 12-15 rugby teams.
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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Lonegunmen wrote:
Football is the highest participated sport in NZ amongst school children, even surpassing Rugby Union.
 
Thank you for that bit of information I did not know that.
 
 

Socceroo/ Mariner / Whangarei

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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
IMO rugby in NZ would be getting a little nervous about the rise of football in NZ. League really is only strong in south Auckland. Football and League seem to happily coexist....I for one don't give a toss about rugby but like to follow the Warriors.
 
The big question for football in NZ is what happens next?
There is currently an indifference about rugby...as covered in earlier posts. Football could easily move into that vacume. The Phoenix have made an amazing impact in their short history,especially in Wellington, where the demographics suit a growth in football. They are well financed, well managed and people have responded...even though they finished last in the comp.
This upcoming season...if they win more games the interest will grow.
 
The big thing about growing the game is to give something to inspire all the kids playing around the country...they need their own local football heroes, guys like Smeltz and Daniel and Mossy.When you see a guy like siggy come from the local comp and get a professional contract with the Phoenix then it gives hope to the thousands of youngsters. They will think, if I train hard and play well then maybe I can make a living out of the game.
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almost 18 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
The problem with Football in New Zealand is that we still have an amateur set up at the top, which in today's environment is not good enough.

An analogy can be drawn with Rugby Union in England.  The RFU was very slow to adjust to the professional game (they were not very well run even before 1995), and even though England has vast playing numbers, they were left behind the rest of the world for a few years.

What happened in English rugby, which could happen with Football in New Zealand, is that the Professional clubs gained a lot of power, which the RFU is now finding difficult to deal with.

The New Zealand market is ripe for the plucking (small though it is), Union is saturated, League  only appeals to a limited market, forget about AFL, Basketball seems to have missed its chance.  Football has a great opportunity.

Unfortunately our national organisation is in disarray.  That leaves only professional clubs able to take the chance.  NZFC teams are small fry, that leaves only Australian aligned clubs.  FFA has spotted the void here, and persisted despite the Knights being poorly run.  Fortunately they have found an investor with similar vision to start a club here in Wellington.

I just hope that NZF can catch up.
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