Okay, problems laid out on the table, now here are three ways to fix them...
- Get some competitive games outside the Oceania confederation
- More players in the best possible club environments
- Ensure we’re developing the right profiles of youngsters coming through
The first point is the most difficult because where are we supposed to do about it? New Zealand might be the only nation on the planet mourning the loss of the Confederations Cup... because there’s nothing else for us now. Going back across the last decade, the only non-friendlies that we’ve played outside Oceania were at the 2017 Confeds Cup (lost 2-0 to Russia, lost 2-1 to Mexico, lost 4-0 to Portugal) and then the intercontinental playoffs against Peru in 2017 (drew 0-0 at home, lost 2-0 away) and Costa Rica in 2022 (lost 1-0 on neutral territory). And we don’t even get those any more. Sure there are FIFA Series games and Soccer Ashes and whatnot... but those are glorified friendlies. The more the merrier with them but we still need something else.
One idea that’s been floated around is Gold Cup entry. That’s the North & Central American championships, held every two years, and for the past three editions they’ve included a guest team: Qatar in 2021 and 2023, Saudi Arabia in 2025. South Korea also had a go in 2000 and 2002. Now, if it comes down to a purse bid against those countries then we’re screwed... and anyway Saudi Arabia were invited for two events so they’ve already got the next guest ticket (coincidentally, Saudi sovereign wealth fund PIF is a major Gold Cup sponsor). But they did talk about expanding it from 16 teams to 24 teams last time (with eight guests) and while that didn’t come to fruition then, the idea still lingers. The success of the expanded World Cup might nudge them further in that direction.
Naturally they’d prefer more commercially lucrative invitees but at least the All Whites (and New Zealand in general) do have a good reputation and the World Cup will have helped that. We’ve played a lot of games against CONCACAF nations in recent years (Costa Rica, Mexico, USA & Haiti all within the last five years) so existing relationships are there. We wouldn’t win a bid on capitalist criteria but from a competitive standpoint we’re a fun team that usually loses which is perfect for a guest nation. NZ Football have confirmed that they’re trying to make it happen and if we can get FIFA on our side of the lobbying then you never know.
Copa America, for the South American nations, also tends to invite guest teams. They only have 10 core members and therefore need to fill out the competition with outsiders. Usually they grab teams from CONCACAF but Japan and Qatar have also been included before. That’s another option – especially if Tim Payne makes the phone call. Doubtful we’d have any chance at getting into the Asian, African, or European tournaments since they’ve got way more competitors hence we’d be taking a spot away from one of their own constituents. There are smaller tournaments within those regions though, such as the ASEAN Cup and the Arab Cup. The least we can do is ask nicely.
There’s another (unlikely) possibility that maybe FIFA could mirror FIBA where the international basketball federation still recognises Oceania and factors them into World Cup and Olympic qualification... but since only Australia and New Zealand have competitive teams from that region they’ve otherwise been absorbed into the Asian confederation. The Tall Blacks and Tall Ferns play in the Asia Cup. They play Asian teams in World Cup qualifying. There’s no way FIFA would axe Oceania as a region, nor should we want them to, though maybe merging the Asia Cup and Oceania Nations League could be something to ponder down the line. There are better solutions though. Let’s see that Gold Cup dream come true, that’s the most realistic one (and probably the best competitive level for where we’re at).
Most of a player’s improvements happen during the day in, day out of their club football. At the moment we’ve got a squad full of solid pros but with only Chris Wood currently getting games in a top five European league and only Marko Stamenić having ever played Champions League (and even then only in the group stage). Ben Old (France) and Libby Cacace (Italy) have prior experience in those top five leagues but both got relegated which isn’t really the vibe we’re going for. Joe Bell won a Norwegian title recently, that’s pretty cool. Eli Just and Callum McCowatt had strong seasons in Scotland and Denmark respectively. Okay, sweet, we can work with this... but we need more!
The good thing is that it’s already happening. The wheels are in motion. Jesse Randall has made his move to Dundee United and Tim Payne even got a surprise one to Club Olimpia in Paraguay. It shouldn't be long until Elijah Just and Finn Surman cash in on their World Cup clout (with the backdrop of outstanding club seasons to vindicate their quality) while the likes of Callum McCowatt, Sarpreet Singh, and Matt Garbett have been rumoured with fresh moves as well. This process doesn’t have to come via new transfers either. Alex Paulsen and Tyler Bindon are already on the fringes of Premier League clubs trying to earn a shot at that level. Marko Stamenić, Liberato Cacace, and Max Crocombe are at clubs hoping to earn promotion to the Prem, going up the divisions the old fashioned way. It’s all about getting our best players in the best club environments possible.
It’s unrealistic to demand Champions League footy for all... that’s not gonna happen. Nor should we want that if the dude isn’t good enough for that level. It’s a case by case basis thing. This idea is more about raising the overall level so that in four years’ time we can pick a squad with six or seven guys in top tier leagues instead of one or two, so that our bench is stacked with European pros rather than A-League guys. No shade on the ALM which is an excellent competition and a great stepping stone for kiwi talent but it was rather obvious which guys in this squad haven’t played anywhere else yet. Plus, like, what we’re talking about here isn’t easy. It takes a fair bit of courage and an insane amount of work, not to mention sustained production over multiple seasons, to earn those kinds of moves... it’s the guys willing to gamble on their own talents that we want carrying the All Whites forward. Gotta encourage the ambition.
Finn Surman on his World Cup experience:
“Umm what did I learn? I think I just learned that I can compete with players at the top of the world. There's a lot that I can get better at and that we, New Zealand, can improve on, but overall I'm pretty pleased with how things went in the tournament. I don't believe the gap's too big between both myself and the players that we played against, but also New Zealand and the countries we played against.”
And then it’s just about keeping an eye on the youth development side of things. We’re doing pretty well in those spaces. Having two A-League clubs is helping bolster the numbers and NZ Football has close connections with both Auckland FC and Wellington Phoenix. NZ age grade sides have dipped in how they’ve gone at their youth World Cups across the last couple cycles though that’s not really how you judge those things. The grassroots game is in a decent place. Next year’s National League reform ought to raise the standard there by having the best up against the best much more often. NZF’s Whole of Football 2.0 strategy is already at work.
One area of possible concern is our elite coaching pool. It’d be choice if our various national teams (men and women, senior, U20s, U17s) and professional clubs (A-League and Pro League) weren’t overwhelmingly dominated by coaches with English or Australian accents, you know? Much love to everyone who puts in the work for kiwi football, this isn’t about individuals, it’s just that it might not be a great sign of a healthy footballing culture that more locals aren’t rising into those roles. There are already signs this may be changing though.
Then there are the profiles. Because while the AWs worked extremely hard in those three games... they also got shown up athletically in a few obvious ways: lack of pace across the board, lack of power in attack beyond The Woodsman, lack of dudes who can go 1v1 against defenders. We don’t need a whole team of premier athletes but a couple more to sprinkle in there would make a huge difference. Fortunately, guys like Luke Brooke-Smith and Stipe Ukich are already on the way, strong and quick, with the potential to be ready in four years’ time. Don’t wanna put all our eggs in one or two baskets so we’ll see how things progress across the board. Making sure we continue to develop more of those zippy technicians to replenish the squad without having to revert styles is another focus. Especially since a very disproportionate amount of this squad came through the Declan Edge-era Ole Academy and that’s not been a thing for a wee while now.
The maximalist approach is the way to go: more professionals means more who make it to the top, which means more variety in the types of players that get there. There was a number bandied about during the tournament of 60 professional players from New Zealand... there’s way more than that, that’s just the number that Darren Bazeley always mentions for his long-list of All Whites candidates (which has gone up from a couple years ago when he usually claimed to be tracking around 50 players). But comparative to other countries, it’s a bloody small figure. Let’s make it so that the current number is as low as it’ll ever be again.
Another aspect is that all these ideas are interconnected. By playing at a World Cup, our best players have proved (to themselves and others) that they can hang against the world’s best, which in turn aids their transfer marketability. Making upwards transfers then helps them become more competitive at future World Cups. Getting higher quality games for the All Whites will improve the results, which makes kiwi players more enticing and accessible for clubs around the world. A stronger senior team gives young players more to aspire to, carving out room for them to make their way in the sport. Playing at a higher level increases athleticism, both from the standard of play and also the quality of training and sports science they’re exposed to. And so forth.
