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Should Trump's USA still be a World Cup host?

130 replies · 3,793 views
02 Mar 00:30 · edited 02 Mar 00:31 · History
Since2007
So uh, I don't really have any strong opinions on the nuances of geo-politics in the middle east as I'm pretty ignorant apologies...

But given this is a football forum, what's the likelihood of Iran actually playing at the World Cup? And did I read right that Iraq would replace them in the group if they can't make it? If Iraq qualify on their on merit (they're in the interconfederation playoff) who would step in to our group instead? 

I've got my tickets to the game and flights to LA booked (holding off on the Vancouver return as it's nearly triple the price as going over!) hopefully there's a game of football to watch ! 
Iraq beat the UAE in a 2 legged playoff Nov last year, to qualify for the upcoming March inter-confederation play-offs (6 teams).

Iraq as one of the two highest ranked teams (the other is DR Congo) need to beat the winner of Bolivia vs Suriname

If Iraq win that game and qualify for the WC, they join the 'Pool of Death' in  
 
If Iran can't attend the WC, and FIFA decide their spot goes to another AFC team, you'd think it's likely the UAE who gets the invite. Might mean more Iranian ballistic missiles into Dubai.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_%E2%80%93_AFC_fifth_round

But we are 3 days into a war that is going to go for weeks, maybe even months.
02 Mar 00:41 · edited 02 Mar 00:48 · History
theprof
is this actually gonna result in a regime change though? Cut the head off and another one grows back, often worse and with a reason to be angry.


Basically no one knows the answer to this question.
And the answer may not be known for weeks, or even months.

Once the US/Israel have almost total air superiority, and the Iranian regime basically have no more functioning missile launchers/attack drones - will be a key moment.

Then American airpower could support an attempt at regime change by whoever on the ground in Iran. But again no one really knows how this is going to play out.

Me & family are scheduled to fly to Spain via Qatar March 29th. Fudge knows whether that will happen or not.

The quadrangular FIFA series in NZ later this month could be at risk of happening now. With UAE/Doha such big transport hubs and so many players coming from Europe. Of course these are minor issues in the midst of a war with loss of life.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/360945334/irans-autopilot-regime-will-fire-missiles-until-bitter-end

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s demise was the story of a death foretold. The late supreme leader and his inner circle had long known they could be assassinated by their American or Israeli enemies.

So they made elaborate preparations for that moment, devising a plan for Iran’s regime to run on autopilot and survive its own decapitation.

As the smoke clears over the strike on his compound in Tehran that left Khamenei lying dead in the rubble, this system will now be tested by hard reality.

The essence of it was that Khamenei ordered all key figures and military commanders to choose not just one substitute but four, so that the Islamic Republic’s leadership might in theory withstand three waves of assassinations.

The identities of some nominees would remain secret so as to deny Israel and America a ready-made target list.
02 Mar 01:30 · edited 02 Mar 01:32 · History
Seems like a lot of needless carnage, all for nobody to have any idea if it is going to materially change anything for the people in Iran.

Youd have to be a sociopath to think this was a good idea

Edit: by the way, youre dreaming if you think there is going to be a ground invasion
02 Mar 01:54
Base case is still that the World Cup goes ahead, but if things escalate it’s starting to look pretty unlikely.

Either way, its hard to even think about the World Cup let alone enjoy it with the state the world is in
02 Mar 01:55
imanixsupporter
Seems like a lot of needless carnage, all for nobody to have any idea if it is going to materially change anything for the people in Iran.

Youd have to be a sociopath to think this was a good idea

Edit: by the way, youre dreaming if you think there is going to be a ground invasion

Of course there is going to be no ground invasion. That's blind obvious.
It's the one learning the US (well this administration) has made from the Iraq cluster fudge and other messes like Somalia.

You put boots on the ground, you give the clerics or whoever perfect 'death to the infidels' material. Thousands of overseas jihadists will find their way to the Islamic Republic, and it will be a bloody(ier) mess.

Also the MAGA base will desert Trump in droves, if he lands any GIs in Iran.

But total air dominance, will allow them to offer some form of protection to protestors, or even any military factions that might lead some sort of internal coup/regime change.

Don't forget Israeli intelligence has basically penetrated all levels of the Iran power structure. If there are factions that could lead some sort of internal coup, or negotiate favorably with the Americans/Jews it will be known in Tel Aviv. But to give that possibility a greater chance of success they need to damage the IRG as much as possible, and yes have pretty much total dominance of the skies.

As I keep saying no one knows how this will go, but it's still what most Iranians were waiting and hoping for.
02 Mar 02:20
Again, there is no credible organised opposition within Iran, the people there are not going to overwhelm the regime, which is highly unlikely to desert and crumble. There are no militias capable of doing it like there were in places like Syria or Libya. Anybody who is serious about this knows this. The people running the US intervention either dont understand this well enough or dont give a fudge and are happy to see senseless destruction regardless of outcome
02 Mar 02:28 · edited 02 Mar 06:14 · History
Man you are wasted taking up a cubicle at the PSA, or wherever you seat yourself daily.

Bang your CV off to Mossad or Shin Bet pronto. 
02 Mar 03:16
The WC was already a farce before, banning fans from certain countries to attend games for their own team shows the most ugly side of the current USA.
The WHOLE point of those events is to open your country and showcase how great it is, everyone is welcome and buy that bring the world closer together.
Sport is one the greatest thing ever. You compete on the pitch but you respect everyone on and off the pitch.
03 Mar 02:54
Just been rewatching bits of Thirteen Days directed by Roger Donaldson. 

It’s interesting to think about the current administration would have gone. 

I think the heroes of that moment are the quiet advisors- guys like Thompson and Stevenson who do their job professionally and with empathy.

I couldn’t believe when I heard the way they were talking about this situation. They had 3 candidates to head Iran in event of a regime change. The problem here was not openly talking about appointing a puppet who might lose support and credibility as a result.

Unfortunately, the problem, they told the public like a joke on a late night talk show, was the attack had been stronger than they’d anticipated and they killed options A, B and C of the people they wanted to take over. 


03 Mar 07:24
Article in the Guardian today by Barney Ronay

Infantino’s idolisation of Trump has left football with blood on its hands

The Fifa president’s sycophancy towards the US president has left the organisation facing a new nadir, but any reckoning seems a distant prospect

Mr President. Fellow exco members. We’re going to need a bigger Board of Peace. How many mini‑pitches are we up to now? Gaza got 50 of them last month. What will it take to football-fix the global conflict being set in train by Fifa’s own Peace Prize Boy? A hundred mini-pitches? Four billion mini-pitches? All the mini‑pitches in the universe?

In a more sane version of what we must, out of habit, call the real world, it would seem absurd to talk about sports administration in the context of the US, Iran and the airborne conflict being played out across the borders of their allies.

Sport is the most important of all the unimportant things. Sport is a part of a culture you fight for, but not a part of the battle. Sport is also prone to insisting on its own importance, shoving itself to the front of every photo like a particularly deluded family Labrador.

When news emerged on Monday that Iran had launched a drone attack on the Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, there was an urge to point out this is a mere 250 miles from Cristiano Ronaldo’s house. Do we need a footballers‑and-their-war-menaced-mansions gallery? Meanwhile the UK government has advised British nationals in Saudi to stay inside and take cover. So … you’re saying this is an Ivan Toney story?

There are two reasons why this dynamic has now shifted, why football is not just an observer but an active participant in this picture; reasons that should in any sane version of reality be hugely damaging for Fifa and its executive.

The basic premise is jaw‑dropping enough. The co‑host of the Fifa World Cup finals this summer is currently bombing one of its participating nations. The co‑host of the tournament has murdered the head of state of the third‑ranked team in Group G.

Nothing quite like this has happened before. Britain was involved in bloody conflicts in Borneo and Aden while it hosted the 1966 World Cup. Russia has been banned from international sport as a consequence of invading the borders of a sovereign state, although this was still deemed unproblematic in 2018.

Clearly, nobody out there will have the will or the courage to apply a similar logic to the US. The issue is the extent of Fifa and Gianni Infantino’s willingness to act as a fluffer, ally and de facto propaganda mouthpiece for Donald Trump’s regime.

Never mind how gravely Infantino might frown, while pretending this has all been necessary realpolitik. The fact is, Fifa has tied itself with unquestioning zeal to a US president who has initiated eight acts of overseas aggression in his second term. And football has blood on its hands now, too.

This might seem like a stretch, or an overly dramatic take on the necessary exercise of Fifa’s global remit. But this has also been a choice. Infantino has, in full view of the consequences, repeatedly put Fifa in the same room as Trump’s autocratic exercise of power. Not as a guest or a bystander, but as an enabler, an active participant in the publicity machine.

Under its own statutes Fifa is supposed to be politically neutral. And yet this has still happened, to a degree that it has by now moved past cartoonish to grotesque. It was a choice to trail after the president like a goggle-eyed teenager offering gifts, a bauble here, a peace prize there, a strange and frightening Club World Cup trophy replica that looks like it contains a tiny drawer full of crow’s heads.

It was a choice not just to award Trump a peace prize, but to invent a peace prize from scratch so he could win it, that fittingly gruesome drag‑me‑to‑hell golden bauble with its nest of clawing hands.

As was the related announcement of the weird and pointless Gaza mini-pitch construction project, with its manipulative background imagery of rubble and displaced people casually tossed into the mix, a gruesome form of public conscience washing.

All of this is doubly absurd given the continued participation in the Fifa-verse of Israel, the same nation that is levelling Gaza’s existing infrastructure. Almost as an afterthought, it goes without saying that the weapons being used to reduce these people’s homes to rubble are being part-funded by the hosts of this summer’s tournament and Infantino’s own daddy‑regime. But never mind. The president has a golden peace ball. Keep looking at the peace ball.

In the end this will catch up with you. The open doors, the hours at the buffet table, the ballroom passes, all come at a cost. Fifa may not be directly responsible for all this. But it is now decisively part of the image-making that has empowered Trump to take his extreme executive actions.

There is of course a hugely complex set of demands in play here. The idea of a right and wrong side of history is never really clear. Sometimes you might straddle many of them all at once. But Fifa is so clearly drawn to the nearest power source, the biggest stick, the grandest stage, all the while presenting itself as grave and stately ambassador of hope, led by a man who increasingly resembles essence of pure inauthenticity, reconstituted into human form, packed into a blue suit and pushed out on stage to talk about peace, in the voice of a man addressing you from the bridge of his own golden ship of hope.

What happens next is entirely uncertain. As news broke of the US bombardment of Tehran, Fifa executives were at Hensol Castle in Wales overseeing the 140th annual general meeting of the International Football Association Board, which is at least a suitably scaled occupation for a bunch of sports administrators.

It seems impossible that Iran can now compete at the World Cup this summer, or indeed that it should have been present in any case given the regime is accused of killing tens of thousands of civilian protesters. The Iranian FA has stated it “cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope”. Its fans were already banned from entering the US.

Under Fifa’s statutes there is no direct remedy should Iran drop out, although there is pretty much a free hand under force majeure for the executive committee to act as it sees fit. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar, struck by Iranian bombs in the past few days, were in the same qualifying group. As were North Korea. Perhaps Infantino has a route here to usher in another dear leader.

Some kind of fudge will be offered. A World Cup will take place if there is still a world left to contest it. The US needs this to happen. The show must continue. And this is an incidental aspect of the extraordinary story of Trump and Infantino. Football is always telling you things about the world, always running ahead to the tide.

In this case it is providing the ideal, textbook, read-it-and-take-notes lesson in how dictatorships and propaganda work, how power glosses its actions with noise. How spectacle is used to flood the zone, and how nothing floods the zone like football.

In any sane version of sports governance Infantino should, at the end of all this, be forced to explain his actions, to justify taking global football into this space. It won’t happen. His own executive power is absolute.

The money continues to flow to his sub-partners. But history will still judge him, and judge his version of Fifa. There is no way of escaping that lens. And from here it already looks like the most grotesque, post-truth, fawningly complicit version of big sport ever devised.