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Should Trump's USA still be a World Cup host?

130 replies · 3,793 views
03 Jan 22:43 · edited 03 Jan 22:48 · History
Just so as to keep the actual World Cup 2026 thread on point, for useful things like ticketing, and how beatable Egypt are or not.

I sincerely hope that Venezuela returns to being a democracy, and those 8 million economic refugees can start returning home. Let's see what happens now. 
03 Jan 23:11 · edited 03 Jan 23:12 · History
The President of Mexico knows that if Trump gets away with this, she is next. You can't have a World Cup where the head of state of 1 host is literally threatening to overthrow the governments of/annex the other hosts.

And once again, what you're saying is divorced from reality. The PSUV regime is still in power in Caracas. I personally suspect they sold Maduro out and have done some kind of deal to pacify Trump (eg, cut off oil to Cuba?) But there is going to be NO additional democracy out of this.

Ramming liberal dribble down your throat since 2009
This forum needs less angst and more Kate Bush threads



03 Jan 23:39 · edited 04 Jan 00:17 · History
Lets see Doloras. As all the commentators are saying it's a fluid situation.

Reading Trump's comments this morning I'm yes disappointed he seems to have discarded Machado, and is talking to Vice President Rodríguez, who I'm guessing is just a junior corrupt thug to Maduro.

But to avoid a potential ugly civil war, maybe this is the best plan in the short term.
Promise some type of criminal amnesties for all Maduro's inner circle, unpleasant as that maybe. In exchange all democracy protestors Maduro has locked up, get released, with some plan for free elections down the track.

Yipe Trump wants his greedy hands on Venezuela's oil supply, but he's also right that without billions of USD investment the place will continue to be an economic basket case, with poverty misery for it's people.


And as we all know Trump says the outrageous, to serve his goals. He ain't going drop special forces into Ciudad de Mexico or Bogota. But if he can get the Mexican or Colombian voter at least thinking, he'd do that with left wing govts in charge, well maybe he can sway elections there to his liking. Pedro already has a 65% disapproval rating in Colombia. Their next Presidential elections are in May, and I don't think he can stand anyway, ie can't do consecutive terms in Colombia???

Cuba different. Like Venezuela it ain't a democracy, and Cuban heritage Rubio esp would love regime change there. There will be some angst in Havana right now. But they don't seem to be a Narco bolthole, so the Yankees will have to invent a new excuse.
04 Jan 00:16 · edited 04 Jan 00:17 · History
coochiee
Lets see Doloras. As all the commentators are saying it's a fluid situation.

Reading Trump's comments this morning I'm yes disappointed he seems to have discarded Machado, and is talking to Vice President Rodríguez, who I'm guessing is just a junior corrupt thug to Maduro.

But to avoid a potential ugly civil war, maybe this is the best plan in the short term.
Promise some type of criminal amnesties for all Maduro's inner circle, unpleasant as that maybe. In exchange all democracy protestors Maduro has locked up, get released, with some plan for free elections down the track.

Yipe Trump wants his greedy hands on Venezula's oil supply, but he's also right that without billions of USD investment the place will continue to be an economic basket case, with poverty misery for it's people.


And as we all know Trump says the outrageous, to serve his goals. He ain't going drop special forces into Ciudad de Mexico or Bogota. But if he can get the Mexican or Colombian voter at least thinking, he'd do that with left wing govts in charge, well maybe he can sway elections there to his liking. Pedro already has a 65% disapproval rating in Colombia. Their next Presidential elections are in May, and I don't think he can stand anyway, ie can't do consecutive terms in Colombia???

Cuba different. Like Venezuela it ain't a democracy, and Cuban heritage Rubio esp would love regime change there. There will be some angst in Havana right now. But they don't seem to be a Narco bolthole, so the Yankees will have to invent a new excuse.
the history of US interventions in latin america have not favoured democracy but regimes good for US interests - in fact they are anti democracy when that results in regimes that don't vibe with american interests. i don't see this as any different even more so that trump has shown his preference for authoritarianism at home.

maybe the dropping of sanctions will help the economy but at the same point, the US wants to extract wealth from venezuela - they aren't altruistic. 
04 Jan 00:37 · edited 04 Jan 02:38 · History
No it's not altruistic at all. Not when it now looks like Noble Peace Prize winning Machado is going to be sidelined. I suspect the big issue is she has no backers from the corrupt military, so it could all fall into a ugly civil war if she was put forward to govern now.

Trump is a deal maker. This is just another (very large scale) deal for him. 
US chucks in billions of dollars in exchange for unlimited oil access. It's not so much the dropping of sanctions that Venezuela needs, as a massive amount of infrastructure investment to get it's oil production levels up to where they were.

They had markets like Cuba, and China to sell into. But their infrastructure began to fail as soon as Chavez nationalised it, sacking 15,000 experienced oil workers to be replaced by government loyalists with no idea what they were doing. Purging experienced staff, leading to a huge loss of expertise and drop in production levels. 

For Trump getting rid of Maduro also ticks off boxes like trying to get Venezuelan immigrants to return home, and telling China - Latin America is 'our back yard'.

But it's not like Chile 1973 or 1980s Nicaragua. It's very different, shaping up as a fairly bloodless (cross fingers) coup d'etat. Maduro was/is a dictator, stealing power. It's generally accepted by international observers he lost the last election in a landslide. It wasn't even remotely close. The majority of the population want him gone.

This all suits Trump. His MAGA base don't want a drawn out US occupation/war. This is the age of cell phones and any atrocities/deaths uploaded on the internet in seconds. You can't hide bodies of nuns in mass jungle graves like the bad old days. Horrible stuff on the internet is bad for your polling and popularity.

Venezuelans celebrate in Lima, Peru.
04 Jan 00:45 · edited 04 Jan 02:12 · History
coochiee
No it's not altruistic at all. Not when it now looks like Noble Peace Prize winning Machado is going to be sidelined. I suspect the big issue is she has no backers from the corrupt military, so it could all fall into a ugly civil war if she was put forward to govern now.

Trump is a deal maker. This is just another (very large scale) deal for him. 
US chucks in billions of dollars in exchange for unlimited oil access. Also ticks off boxes like getting Venezuelan immigrants returning home, and telling China, Latin America is 'our back yard'.

But it's not like Chile 1973 or 1980s Nicaragua. It's very different, shaping up as a fairly bloodless (cross fingers) coup d'etat. Maduro was/is a dictator, stealing power. It's generally accepted by international observers he lost the last election in a landslide. It wasn't even remotely close. The majority of the population want him gone.

This all suits Trump. His MAGA base don't want a drawn out US occupation/war. This is the age of cell phones and any atrocities/deaths uploaded on the internet in seconds. You can't hide bodies of nuns in mass jungle graves like the bad old days. Horrible stuff on the internet is bad for your polling and popularity.
i don't agree with the monroe doctrine, it treats the countries of the americas like a soviet bloc. i'm sure that the US will also make sure they profit, extract more wealth  than any investment they intend to make. if maduro was a friendly dictator to the US (like those in the middle east for instance) then i don't see the US needing to meddle.
04 Jan 00:49 · edited 04 Jan 00:52 · History
I’m sure Maduro was a nasty piece of work, but this doesn’t sit right. It’s all about a grab for oil. Was shocked to see that country has more crude oil reserves then even Saudi Arabia. Now it’s all going to be under American control.

Putin must be looking at this and thinking I wish I could have mounted a similar kidnapping in Ukraine four years ago.

Auckland will rise once more

04 Jan 00:52
Fifa would never take it away... even though they should. America is bombing boats illegally in international waters, and just ousted a foreign leader for oil. The whole drug argument a lie to justify his expanionist ideals.
04 Jan 00:55
The fact that a WC was awarded to Putin's Russia, and not removed despite this and that and everything, answers this question...
04 Jan 01:10
Khalil Media
The fact that a WC was awarded to Putin's Russia, and not removed despite this and that and everything, answers this question...
Tbf the question was should they still be a host country.

We already know they won't change it, especially less than 6 months out from the opening match.

Three for me, and two for them.

04 Jan 04:04
MetalLegNZ
Fifa would never take it away... even though they should. America is bombing boats illegally in international waters, and just ousted a foreign leader for oil. The whole drug argument a lie to justify his expanionist ideals.
Yep he wants the Americas while Russia has Europe and gifting Asia to China.
Laughable if it wasnt true pardons one Narco Terrorist then arrests another. 
Its all about oil and minerals and power.

GET YOUR SHIRTS OFF FOR THE BOYS

04 Jan 05:35 · edited 04 Jan 05:40 · History
AucklandPhoenix
I’m sure Maduro was a nasty piece of work, but this doesn’t sit right. It’s all about a grab for oil. Was shocked to see that country has more crude oil reserves then even Saudi Arabia. Now it’s all going to be under American control.

Putin must be looking at this and thinking I wish I could have mounted a similar kidnapping in Ukraine four years ago.

Ha ha, Putin tried, but - because he didn't have an "inside man" in the Ukrainian government - he failed.

Venezuela's oil is crap, btw. Heavy sludge, I'm not sure of the technical term. Admittedly the US do have refineries that can handle it, but they can get the same stuff from Alberta and it's much closer. But more importantly than all that, the price of oil is collapsing these days. Trump is trying to strong-arm the US oil companies into moving into Venezuela but they're not actually interested.

All the politics is besides the point here, though. We now have to boycott the Olympics and the World Cup for the same reason we* boycotted Moscow 1980, Russia is currently excluded from FIFA and Israel is being excluded from Eurovision. You have to ostracize governments who do this sort of thing, because, to quote from the classics, if you tolerate this, your children will be next

* yes, 5 Kiwis went to Moscow

Ramming liberal dribble down your throat since 2009
This forum needs less angst and more Kate Bush threads



04 Jan 06:55
Fifa has shown to be a bunch of Plonkers. After polishing Trump's balls and giving him some manufactured peace prize, Trump then invades Venezuela.
You can't make this shark up.


04 Jan 07:04 · edited 04 Jan 07:11 · History
Yipe google tells me Alberta's oil sands are almost identical chemically to Venezuela's heavy crude oil. But Venezuela's is easier and cheaper to get out of the ground.

And actually Chavez sacked 23,000 experienced oil workers not 15,000. The start of his country's massive economic decline. He also went all in on oil. Neglecting Venezuela's other industries, the economy became less diversified. Farm production was neglected, more food and other goods had to be imported. 
I guess he was a anti greenie, climate change denier.

He also went on a big social spending spree (all good if you have the hard currency export earnings), and then stuff like price and dollar/peso fixing which never tends to go well.

When the oil price tanked, and with production quickly falling the economy became a complete cluster fudge. 


Anyway can the Yankees come in and turn it around. Gonna be an interesting couple of months. Best case is some sort of stability and free elections down the track. Worst case all out civil war and anarchy. And that has happened for periods since the 1940s in neighbours Colombia.

Hegseth and Rubio will need to play this out very smart. Their leverage might be capture and 30 years rotting in a US jail, for any of Maduro's major inner circle players (incl importantly the generals) who don't co-operate.

To me the major difference between this 'military operation' and others like Putin's Ukraine, is the majority of his countrymen/women wanted Maduro gone. 
The fact that Russia and Iran are among the loudest to condemn Mr & Mrs Maduro's, unplanned trip to New York says it all. 
04 Jan 07:48
Putting aside for a moment the question of whether FIFA should pull US hosting rights, does anyone have a handle on how that would work in practice?

I think of FIFA as functioning like a more corrupt UN, where you have an executive bureaucracy that wants to get on with running things for its own benefit and a bunch of member states who’re nominally in charge but in practice are ignored except during vote-buying season.

Obviously the move would have to come from members since the FIFA executive have made it very clear where they stand, so I can imagine a couple of ways they might do that.

One would be to force some sort of extraordinary vote and scramble to get such an overwhelming majority of members in support that the exec would have no choice but to take notice. Presumably this would degenerate into slush fund bureaucratic warfare of the highest order.

The other would be for member states to bypass FIFA governance and unilaterally boycott the competition. Nobody will be quaking in their boots if the AWs don’t turn up, but is there some threshold where if enough big footballing nations pulled out they’d be forced to cancel?

Obviously I don’t see either of these things happening in reality, even ignoring how close we are to the start of the competition, but I’m curious if there’s even a theoretical way this could work.
04 Jan 07:54 · edited 04 Jan 08:13 · History
It’s a long time ago now but the 1978 WC was hosted by a country in the midst of a military dictatorship, whereby 30,000 of its citizens were murdered.
04 Jan 07:56 · edited 04 Jan 07:56 · History
Trouble now is along with tariffs, the old bully now has another tool to get people in line.

Just send some planes, helicopters and a delta team to kidnap the head of state if the tariffs don’t work.

Auckland will rise once more

04 Jan 08:56
coochiee
It’s a long time ago now but the 1978 WC was hosted by a country in the midst of a military dictatorship, whereby 30,000 of its citizens were murdered.
Absolutely right. And Argentina's junta used that WC (and their win in it) to rally public support and get 5 years more of "disappearing" people.

Ramming liberal dribble down your throat since 2009
This forum needs less angst and more Kate Bush threads



04 Jan 09:12 · edited 04 Jan 09:13 · History
I’m no Winnie Peters fan but good on him for his remarks today.

Christopher, I like a deal as much as the next guy, will never utter a word. 

Auckland will rise once more

04 Jan 09:19
Really? You're impressed with his comments? Cowardly non-statement that doesn't call out the party that blatantly has contravened international law
04 Jan 10:21
Decent thread tbf. Hasn’t descended into partisan insults and I learned some stuff reading it. Started a Latin American and the US history course at one point, but was too busy and had to drop it. 

Got as far as the guano islands. And we’re running out of fertilizer again in the modern world. Think it might be Morocco with key ingredients. 

Anyway, solid thread so far thanks.



04 Jan 11:49 · edited 04 Jan 12:35 · History
As a Peruvian journo said today Maduro gets a bitter taste now of what millions of Venezuelans have faced the last 24 years. Seperation from family. Familia is everything to Latinos

Maduro and his wife now in seperate US jails. At 63 he could end up dying in a US gaol. Who knows Trump could be his cell mate in 4-5 years!

Some story that Maduro was very vulnerable as most of his security detail were sent home in December as the Govt had money to pay/feed them

The journo’s (a Venezuela expert) feeling that new President Rodriguez will have to do some sort of deal with the US. Despite protestations she has no real choice

Then will begin the long protracted process of the purging the corrupt and incompetent out of the ruling class

Once that’s mostly done you might see free elections and someone like Machado being in charge 
07 Jan 02:36
coochiee
As a Peruvian journo said today Maduro gets a bitter taste now of what millions of Venezuelans have faced the last 24 years. Seperation from family. Familia is everything to Latinos

Maduro and his wife now in seperate US jails. At 63 he could end up dying in a US gaol. Who knows Trump could be his cell mate in 4-5 years!

Some story that Maduro was very vulnerable as most of his security detail were sent home in December as the Govt had money to pay/feed them

The journo’s (a Venezuela expert) feeling that new President Rodriguez will have to do some sort of deal with the US. Despite protestations she has no real choice

Then will begin the long protracted process of the purging the corrupt and incompetent out of the ruling class

Once that’s mostly done you might see free elections and someone like Machado being in charge 
coochiee
As a Peruvian journo said today Maduro gets a bitter taste now of what millions of Venezuelans have faced the last 24 years. Seperation from family. Familia is everything to Latinos

Maduro and his wife now in seperate US jails. At 63 he could end up dying in a US gaol. Who knows Trump could be his cell mate in 4-5 years!

Some story that Maduro was very vulnerable as most of his security detail were sent home in December as the Govt had money to pay/feed them

The journo’s (a Venezuela expert) feeling that new President Rodriguez will have to do some sort of deal with the US. Despite protestations she has no real choice

Then will begin the long protracted process of the purging the corrupt and incompetent out of the ruling class

Once that’s mostly done you might see free elections and someone like Machado being in charge 
"Then will begin the long protracted process of the purging the corrupt and incompetent out of the ruling class". Are you meaning Venezuela or maga? certainly trump needs to be purged, quicker the better. a 6 foot purge for that Point Of Sale would be appropriate, he is also a good use of some piano wire
07 Jan 03:38 · edited 07 Jan 03:38 · History
If Trump does look to take Greenland before the World Cup, I would sincerely hope that Europe grows some balls and boycotts the tournament 

Auckland will rise once more

07 Jan 04:54 · edited 07 Jan 05:17 · History

Trump corrupt, 100 times yes.
But incompetent?  Love the US President or loathe him, to go into Caracas and do what they did, took some doing.

The Maduro capture was a highly well organised, flawless in it's planning and execution. Pin point. Surgical. Rubio being of Cuban heritage and a hatred of all things Latino socialism, very much has 'skin in this game', and has been planning this operation for years.

Contrast that with the mess of American's exit from Afghanistan in Biden's term. Locals chasing planes down the runway, falling to their deaths in their desperation to escape the oncoming Taliban brutality. What a cluster fudge that was.

The joy among the Venezuelan diaspora and just through Latin America in general now that Maduro is gone, is there for all to see. A expat on Aussie TV yesterday said he protested back in the days of Chavez, was forced to leave and hadn't been able to go back and see his momma in 14 long years. He was very emotional.

It's just that those actually still living in Caracas and other parts can't yet show their happiness. After the Govt stole the 2024 election and then violently shut down protests, locking up hundreds of protestors, they are just too scared at the moment to head out onto the streets. The secret police and militias are pretty worked up, and just looking for some victims to vent their anger on.

https://www.instagram.com/reels/DTIghPeAvq2/
07 Jan 05:20
Trump may get the plaudits for "doing" all these things, but he really just spurted some shark out and because he's the president his Generals had to go off and make it happen.

Queenslander 3x a year.

07 Jan 05:43
coochiee

Trump corrupt, 100 times yes.
But incompetent?  Love the US President or loathe him, to go into Caracas and do what they did, took some doing.

The Maduro capture was a highly well organised, flawless in it's planning and execution. Pin point. Surgical. Rubio being of Cuban heritage and a hatred of all things Latino socialism, very much has 'skin in this game', and has been planning this operation for years.

Contrast that with the mess of American's exit from Afghanistan in Biden's term. Locals chasing planes down the runway, falling to their deaths in their desperation to escape the oncoming Taliban brutality. What a cluster fudge that was.

The joy among the Venezuelan diaspora and just through Latin America in general now that Maduro is gone, is there for all to see. A expat on Aussie TV yesterday said he protested back in the days of Chavez, was forced to leave and hadn't been able to go back and see his momma in 14 long years. He was very emotional.

It's just that those actually still living in Caracas and other parts can't yet show their happiness. After the Govt stole the 2024 election and then violently shut down protests, locking up hundreds of protestors, they are just too scared at the moment to head out onto the streets. The secret police and militias are pretty worked up, and just looking for some victims to vent their anger on.

https://www.instagram.com/reels/DTIghPeAvq2/
Rubio's family fled in exile (his words) Cuba, but not socialist Cuba but the US backed authoritarian dictator Batista. As with other US backed dictators it was repressive, torturous, massive wealth inequality etc.
07 Jan 06:02 · edited 07 Jan 06:54 · History
Yes & no according to AI.

Marco Rubio's parents, Mario and Oriales Rubio, left Cuba for Miami in 1956, arriving on a commercial flight during the Batista regime, well before Fidel Castro's 1959 revolution, though they later returned to Cuba and left again, solidifying their exile status. While they initially came for economic reasons under Batista, they made several trips back and forth and eventually settled permanently in the U.S., with Rubio's mother leaving Cuba for good in 1961 after a month-long visit under Castro, realizing the country's direction.

I've spent 4 weeks in Cuba, and though no expert got a pretty good feel for the place. One good thing about limited WIFI there (illegal to own a modem in your home) is it leaves a lot of time for book reading. Including a tomb on Cuba's history written by a Professor of Socialist History from Havana Uni. Americans referred to as Yankees etc. No love lost for their former Spanish colonial masters.

Military strong man Batista was one bad dude. Massive poverty, illiteracy, child mortality etc under his watch. All the while whilst him and his stooges were living the high life alongside the US Mafia, Frank Sinatra and co. Swinging 1950s Cuba a great spot for a party with ole Blue Eyes. Shark if you were a Cuban rural peasant.

The 1959 Castro/Che revolution was the right thing, at the right time. A massive improvement for most Cubans. Plenty of the wealthy elite fled Stateside.

But man that was 66 years ago. Now it's just a different corrupt elite (senile old men as Rubio calls them) living in mansions surrounding Havana, refusing to give up on the dead socialist paradise dream. Meanwhile most of the populace live in poverty with empty bellies by about day 20, of the monthly food rationing system. Doctors, nurses and teachers paid one USD per day.

If you can somehow get access to USD/Euros by queuing up at the chain of Western Union stores everywhere - ie family remittances from Florida or beyond - then life is sort of bearable. Or you learn some English to work with tourists, and also get USD.

But for most it's grim.

They have two things to sell. Sugar and tourism. Literally that is it. 
I think Trump is right without a supply of cheap/free oil now from Venezuela, the Cuban regime may collapse. There is certainly brewing unrest there, and no doubt the CIA is doing some clandestine untoward stuff as they do.

PS. Had a tour guide around Havana, who no word of a lie spoke English like a Cockney. He'd never ever left Cuba. His cousin living in London, had sent him VHS tapes of East Enders so he could aprendre Ingles!! True story and the human brain is a crazy thing

PPS. Met a book store owner in Havana who had previously been high up in the Bank of Cuba. He spoke Spanish, Russian & Ingles. When the GFC happened around 2007, in his banking role Fidel personally invited him in for a meeting. He had to explain to Castro the basic workings of financial markets etc, as Fidel had no real idea. Castro then asked him if he thought America would fall apart, and the book store man said no. Cuba's President was very disappointed to hear that!

PPPS. Met another interesting character, in Havana's famous Hotel Nacional de Cuba. A real retro joint with lots of photos from the swinging decadent 50s. 
An expat Cuban who had fled to Brazil as a penniless 18 yr old, and then over about 5 years made his way up through Latin America into the US. 15 years later he owned a successful tow truck firm in Atlanta and had one of those blonde wives straight out of a Ryder Cup photo shoot. He was pretty sozzled and loudly proclaimed he was back in Cuba for a visit to stick one up those Commie bastards in his $300 USD/night suite.
07 Jan 06:44
coochiee of course is silent on this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_embargo_against_Cuba

He would like you to believe that this has nothing to do with the suffering and deprivation in Cuba.

The economic impact of the U.S. trade embargo on Cuba is comprehensive and impacts all sectors of the Cuban economy.[86] The United Nations estimated in 2023 the total economic damage to the Cuban economy to be in the "trillions of dollars" since inception.[87][88]
07 Jan 07:03 · edited 07 Jan 07:27 · History
Oh for sure the trade embargos hurt. But they don't seem to have hurt the Socialist politburo elite living in their country mansions away from the poverty.

Nor you or I munching on our bruschetta and soy lattes, with our idealistic Western world opinions. We can choose to see or not to see our families whenever we want. 

Nearly all of the protesting around the world about Maduro's capture is by non Latinos, who have never had to eat out of a dumpster, or seen their election vote be basically worthless.

"The loudest defenders of socialism always live the farthest from it."

It doesn't even become about political ideology so much anymore. More just a corrupt narcissistic ruling elite hanging on to power as long as they can, with zero care for their fellow countrymen/women. 

I mean if they cared about raising living standards, they would try embrace some sort ideological mix, like many European countries. High taxation, free essential services, restrictions on foreign ownership of property/business, but an opening up of business/investment restrictions with a slow move to full democracy. But no that would mean giving up their power.
07 Jan 07:26
Rubio can follow trump onto the piano wire as far as I am concerned. Maduro no angel, the grass holes in the white house have no place involving themselves in it. far as I am concerned whatever fate meets maduro is the same as trump should get. I am even more convinced I can wait until world cup 2030 to support the lads. As for cuba, rubio can keep his nose out of their politics, that's for Cubans to decide. If he has other plans hopefully he meets a short and quick fate. Cuba did well with Soviet support regardless of the US embargo. Since the special period the embargo has made things more dire, so have the cubans inability to adapt their state socialist economic regime. Problems are partially of their own making, partially of the US making, and partially losing their benefactor and being faced alone in a big world
07 Jan 07:34 · edited 07 Jan 07:34 · History
Personally i think that peaceful countries should largely be left alone to do what they want without a certain superpower coercing them with sanctions, embargoes, coups and violence if they aren't right wing enough. Others in this thread can barely contain their glee when it happens though 
07 Jan 08:32
Venezuela isn't peaceful. Fair from it. 
The Govt uses it's SEBIN Special Police to rule by fear, torture and general intimidation.

Again the vast majority of the populace are joyous Maduro is gone. That's good enough for me.

Find an expat Venezuelan Imanix, and sit down with them for hour. 
The situation is far far more than solely a right wing verus left issue.
07 Jan 09:51
It shouldn't be good enough for you coochiee, no matter how bad Maduro is. It didn't matter how bad Saddam was, self-serving American intervention still made things worse in Iraq and you're at best naiive if you think it is likely that what America is doing will improve things overall for Venezuelans (not just for an elite corporate class). 

Even if things had got a lot better in Iraq and even if things do get a lot better in Venezuela, I think any reasonable person should still see these actions as abhorrent, for obvious reasons pertaining to the importance of international law.

Things didn't get better in Iraq and haven't yet gotten any better in Venezuela though so you can't even make the utilitarian argument. 
07 Jan 12:00 · edited 07 Jan 12:31 · History
It's naive to compare Iraq much to Venezuela. 

Iraq has Shia vs Sunni split. Regional power players like Saudi and Iran backing different sides. The Kurds. Death to America an easy rallying call to band together different Islamic jihadist bands. International fighters flooding Iraq from all over the place over lawless borders. Thousands of ex Iraqi army personnel unemployed and with a grudge. Plus it was a full blown US (and later UN) invasion. From very early on a large number of Iraqis wanted the invaders gone. All easy stuff to stir up the hate, anger, and bloodshed.

This time the US is just going to leave it's navy armada with all it's super high tech weaponry parked in the Caribbean, as an enormous close threat. No boots on the ground if they can avoid it. It's all been a matter of days. Plain ridiculous to expect any improvement so soon.

Trump is now going to go into deal mode, which he loves. New El Presidente Rodriguez will continue outwardly to be all anti American outrage, but apparently she's a pragmatist, so she will be willing to cut some sort of deal.

The Americans hold the cards. They can almost completely cut off the Caracas regime's hard currency supply lines, and if they do the country will be impossible for the regime to govern. They won't be able to pay off their protectors (many of them Cubans it seems) any more. A hungry cohort of generals will just do an internal coup and surrender to the Yankees.

Trump will also cut some sort of deal with the US oil companies getting them to eventually invest in the infrastructure repair, if slower than he desires. He'll cut a deal with the Chinese to re begin oil supply to them. Maybe a deal with the Ruskies so they stop arming the Venezuelan military.

Venezuela is in America's backyard. There will be 100s of Latinos in the CIA, and dozens of native Venezuelans with intimate knowledge of the important players in the regime. Who to keep and who to lock up, ie expendable.

I had hoped that the lawfully elected Machado/Gonzalez ticket would soon govern in Venezuela. But true democracy will have to wait, as you risk then militias/ex secret police close to the corrupt regime heading into the Amazon and countryside to start up a civil war. Trump and Rubio know all this. 

This is as good as it will be for now. But the average Venezuelan won't care much. They want to see food in the shops, medicines in the hospitals, rebuilding of crumbling infrastructure, reunions with their loved ones, no Yankee soldiers on their streets and Maduro in jail. True democracy can wait.
07 Jan 20:52
Exactly, I don’t think people understand how things work in Latin America if you never never been there.. China were building key infrastructure over many years and Venezuela was relaying on China to keep the lights on..  was a joke in Argentina Telefe tv channel the from a big journalist who said “China and Russia were interested in Venezuela for a long time, I’m not sure it was for a recipe for Arepas though”
coochiee
It's naive to compare Iraq much to Venezuela. 

Iraq has Shia vs Sunni split. Regional power players like Saudi and Iran backing different sides. The Kurds. Death to America an easy rallying call to band together different Islamic jihadist bands. International fighters flooding Iraq from all over the place over lawless borders. Thousands of ex Iraqi army personnel unemployed and with a grudge. Plus it was a full blown US (and later UN) invasion. From very early on a large number of Iraqis wanted the invaders gone. All easy stuff to stir up the hate, anger, and bloodshed.

This time the US is just going to leave it's navy armada with all it's super high tech weaponry parked in the Caribbean, as an enormous close threat. No boots on the ground if they can avoid it. It's all been a matter of days. Plain ridiculous to expect any improvement so soon.

Trump is now going to go into deal mode, which he loves. New El Presidente Rodriguez will continue outwardly to be all anti American outrage, but apparently she's a pragmatist, so she will be willing to cut some sort of deal.

The Americans hold the cards. They can almost completely cut off the Caracas regime's hard currency supply lines, and if they do the country will be impossible for the regime to govern. They won't be able to pay off their protectors (many of them Cubans it seems) any more. A hungry cohort of generals will just do an internal coup and surrender to the Yankees.

Trump will also cut some sort of deal with the US oil companies getting them to eventually invest in the infrastructure repair, if slower than he desires. He'll cut a deal with the Chinese to re begin oil supply to them. Maybe a deal with the Ruskies so they stop arming the Venezuelan military.

Venezuela is in America's backyard. There will be 100s of Latinos in the CIA, and dozens of native Venezuelans with intimate knowledge of the important players in the regime. Who to keep and who to lock up, ie expendable.

I had hoped that the lawfully elected Machado/Gonzalez ticket would soon govern in Venezuela. But true democracy will have to wait, as you risk then militias/ex secret police close to the corrupt regime heading into the Amazon and countryside to start up a civil war. Trump and Rubio know all this. 

This is as good as it will be for now. But the average Venezuelan won't care much. They want to see food in the shops, medicines in the hospitals, rebuilding of crumbling infrastructure, reunions with their loved ones, no Yankee soldiers on their streets and Maduro in jail. True democracy can wait.
07 Jan 21:31
Two points:

a) people talking as if nabbing Maduro put an end to the Maduro regime. The regime are still there. Trump isn't bringing democracy, he's keeping the crooks in charge but extorting them. Venezuelan expats are going to be very disappointed.

b) to hell with Venezuela, ICE are now murdering people on the street. No-one is safe in the US. Total boycott now.



Ramming liberal dribble down your throat since 2009
This forum needs less angst and more Kate Bush threads



07 Jan 22:46 · edited 07 Jan 22:50 · History
You go too fast in attempting to bring proper peace to Venezuela you risk all out civil war. Likely strong armed elements of the current corrupt regime heading into the jungle, and bloodshed that gets dragged on for years. Oil infrastructure being blown up etc.

American troops then having to be on the ground, and it all gets very messy. Trump don't want that.

You only need to look at neighbouring Colombia. The world's longest running guerilla war between left wing FARC and the various Colombian Govts. They have tried to bring peace there, and got close recently (including millions & millions on trying to rehabilitate FARC fighters), but now parts of FARC have gone back into the Amazon to start fighting all over again. 

That's all with leftist Pedro as President, and lots of concessions to FARC. Elections this year and if a right wing party gets in, it could go back to being full on war again. A Colombian peace agreement referendum in 2016, aiming to ratify the final agreement on the termination of the Colombian conflict between the Colombian government and the FARC guerillas. It failed, with 50.2% voting against it and 49.8% voting in favor. There are large polarising hard right & hard left elements in Colombian society that just want war. There are a number of hard right wing militias around, as brutal as FARC.

For sure there are elements in the current Caracas regime with close ties to FARC. Shared socialist ideologies, shared drug trafficking networks, hatred of the Americans. If there are some Maduro friendly militias or secret police, who want to kick off a civil war in Venezuela they will have great teachers with some FARC commanders.

Most expat Venezuelans just want to return home and have peace. Hug their kids and other family members they haven't seen for years. Family and a full belly over political ideology every time. Democracy can wait.
08 Jan 08:40 · edited 08 Jan 08:44 · History
I can't believe this, it's like I'm talking to a brick wall. What makes you think Trump has any interest in bringing democracy. He out and out admits it's all about stealing oil. He wants the current regime in power, just under his thumb. He is ghosting Machado because she wouldn't freaking him give him her Peace Prize. You are imputing motives which aren't there. He's telling you his agenda and you're in a dreamworld imagining something else is going to happen.

People say socialists are unrealistic, but you Rightists who keep thinking any day now Trump is going to stop being a psychopath and start standing up for liberal values are crazy. You're just as bad as the Russia-glazers who make up any excuse for Russia invading Ukraine and just ignore what Putin says outright.

Also: ICE are murdering innocent people on the streets of Minneapolis. Total boycott.

Ramming liberal dribble down your throat since 2009
This forum needs less angst and more Kate Bush threads



08 Jan 12:45 · edited 08 Jan 13:05 · History
Trump says the outrageous, Rubio comes behind with some level of reason to clean things up.

1. Stabilization
2. Recovery
3. Transition aka eventual democracy

It's an okay Rubio plan at face value, if short on detail. But fudge it's been 4 days since Maduro was captured.

Plus if you go into two much detail  "we plan to have free elections by 2028, with a purging & trials of corrupt regime officials both pre and post those elections blah blah blah". The regime bad guys with the guns in Caracas fearful of soon rotting in jail, head into the hills, and there is widespread bloodshed.

The corruption is multi layered  all through Venezuelan society from Maduro's inner circle power brokers, all the way down to local secret police/narco thugs in every town and village. It's been built up over 20 years, it's not an easy system to unwind quickly. It's going to take time to weaken that. It's a corrupt police state from top to bottom. Lots of powerful armed people with a shark load to lose, when democracy does arrive.

There are armed gangs now in Caracas hunting down Machado supporters, or anyone with stuff on their socials anti Maduro.

Machado/Gonzalez eventually need some sort of army faction split, to align with them. Apparently that's more likely to lead by lower ranked officers, than any of generals who are pro Maduro. But any such split could lead to a civil war.

Again it's far more that a left verus right issue. 
Machado is a staunch advocate of capitalism and free-market policies.
It's your corrupt, brutal, murderous thug 'socialist' cadres Doloras who are the villains here.

As Latinos are saying if you haven't been to our part of the world, to get a really good feel for how it all works there, then fudge off and stop commenting on something you know really know nothing about. We may not like it that was the Yankees who got rid of Maduro, but we are joyous he's gone, after 20 years depressingly thought there was basically little hope of any change, and at last we yes have a glimmer of hope. 


Damning video of that shooting in Minny. That ICE agent should be up on murder charges.