I don’t know how much interest there is, but since the World Cup draw is weeks away and this will wrap up Tuesday, I thought I would update CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. It’s been for more interesting and shocking than I ever would have imagined….
Group A was always going to be a mess. Panama is the best side outside of the host nations and they got basically the hardest draw humanly possible. Suriname is very good side full of seasoned Dutch professionals. Guatemala put a good scare into the US in the Gold Cup semifinals (after eliminating Canada on penalties) and El Salvador is a difficult opponent at home and much better than the other fourth-strongest teams…
So heading into the final match day:
Suriname 9 (+5)
Panama 9 (+2)
Guatemala 5
El Salvador 3
Guatemala lost at home on the first match day to ES which looms large as Guaté carry on the noble tradition of an upstart having a great Gold Cup run, raising expectations and falling flat in qualifying. Panama scored a 96th minute goal to draw Suriname otherwise this would be over. Suriname, Curaçao and Jamaica all have squads full of European/British-raised players and they just don’t seem able to adapt to the insanity that is qualifying in this region. However, the core of this Suriname side has been around awhile and I think they get it now. They seem to be CONCACAFing effectively. Panama has not played well, but looked good in grabbing a 2-0 lead Thursday in Guatemala before surrendering it and then pulling out a 3-2 win. Suriname smashed ES 4-0 which looks important now as we look at the goal differential.
Guatemala v Suriname
Panama v ES
Guatemala has nothing to play for, but that’s still a difficult place to play. Panama is usually good at home, ES has noting to play for and Panama don’t usually score a ton of goals, but them making up that 3-goal difference isn’t impossible. The silver lining for both is that if they both win, one of them will at least make the playoffs.
Group B
Curaçao 11 (+10)
Jamaica 10 (+8)
T&T 6
Bermuda 0
Jamaica got the easiest group possible. No disrespect to Curaçao who are decent and I think are playing even better than usual with Dick Advocaat in charge… This always looked like a two-team race since T&T is quite poor and Bermuda is easily the weakest team left. Thursday Jamaica dropped more points, giving up a late goal in T&T to draw 1-1. The Jamaican FA fired Heimir Hallgrimsson which is totally insane to me and as we watch Jamaica bumble their way through what should have been one of the most straight-forward paths to the World Cup on earth while Hallgrimson resurrected the Rep. of Ireland from the dead. I just shake my head.
Jamaica hosts Curaçao with the visitors obviously only needing a draw. You’d fancy Jamaica to get the win they need, but they seem completely incapable of getting the job done and their squad full of players with EPL and Championship experience inexplicably seem to have no unity or fighting spirit. The minor crime of this qualifying is that the runner up in this group doesn’t really feel like they deserve to advance to the playoffs, but they almost surely will because the group was so poor.
Group C
I expected this to be a two-team race. Boy was I wrong…
Honduras 8 (+3)
Haiti 8 (+1)
Costa Rica 6 (+2)
Nicaragua 4
Qualifying opened with 10-man Nicaragua scoring a late goal to draw 1-1 with Costa Rica. Nicaragua is getting better and that’s been a tough place to play for a few years (away to Real Esteli has been a tricky early round CONCACAF Champions League fixture at times for some big clubs), but I was stunned the Ticos dropped points there. Then Costa Rica had a 2-0 lead on Haiti after 30 minutes at home only to fall apart and need an injury time equalizer to get a 3-3 draw.
It’s been baffling ever since. Due to the political unrest Haiti isn’t even playing home matches. They’re playing in Curaçao… despite that Haiti beat Costa Rica 1-0 at “home” on Thursday and Nicaragua stunned Honduras 2-0 at home. Suddenly, not only is Haiti alive… they might be favoured?
Costa Rica v Honduras
Haiti v Nicaragua
Haiti beat Nicaragua away 3-0 which somehow eluded the favourites and now if they can win, they at least get on 11 points which might be enough for one of the two playoff spots if Jamaica loses or one of Panama or Suriname don’t win. HOWEVER… if Costa Rica beat Honduras at home. Which I kind of fancy they will… and if Haiti wins…. Haiti top the group and go to the World Cup. Which is a wonderful, charming story, but probably not great for the region’s reputation as a whole because I don’t see them being remotely competitive. Thought if two of Panama, Jamaica, Honduras or Costa Rica make the playoffs, it’s possible they could win both playoff spots if that's how the bracket falls.
So TL;DR… there is a very, very possible scenario where Suriname, Curaçao and Haiti get the three automatic qualifying spots in CONCACAF on Thursday. Because chaos and the ridiculous always rules the day in this region.