Capello's approach to picking the final 23 is to name two players for each position, assuming a 442, and a 3rd keeper. He reiterated that in FourFourTwo last month, noting that he likes to position players into that approach with reference to their primary position - but he was a little coy about "utility" players and compromises he might make.
Applying that logic, who's the second right back in the squad? Baines, Cole and Warnock are left backs. Carragher, Dawson, Ferdinand, King, Terry and Upson are centre backs. Carragher offers the option of playing at full back, so he's in to back up Johnson at right back.
At left back, Cole is recovered from his injury isn't he? So one of Warnock or Baines will be dropped..
At centre back, assuming Carragher is in as a RB, King may be dropped because of injury. Otherwise, I imagine Dawson is left behind unless he wants to retain the option of pairing King/Dawson. I can't really see that pairing being used at the Finals unless there are more injuries.
For midfield in general, there are some clear central mids and right mids, but several players can move to the flanks or switch between flanks. However, in overall terms Capello has to drop four midfielders.
For the left, Joe Cole can play there and Walcott seems to be able to switch, so I reckon they're in. For the right, Lennon should be in and I think one of Adam Johnson and Shaun Wright-Phillips will be dropped. Barry is unlikely to be recovered, so I reckon he's dropped. In the centre, Gerrard are Lampard are dead certs to stay, plus Carrick and Milner I think, though Milner's ability to cover right might be useful.I believe Huddlestone can play defence as well as midfield and he's done well this season, so perhaps he gets in? However, I think we'll see Parker and Huddlestone as the other mids dropped.
Finally, one of the strikers would be dropped - Bent I reckon. Unless Rooney doesn't recover, in which we're screwed anyway.