World Cup Draw Thread

161 replies · 35,226 views

over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Three for me, and two for them.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Qualified Teams in chronological order:

Three for me, and two for them.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

World Cup pots (To be confirmed)

Buffon II2009-11-19 14:37:37

Three for me, and two for them.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

When do they confirm the pots????

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

brettdale wrote:

When do they confirm the pots????

Not sure. FIFA should confirm it later today.

Three for me, and two for them.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

South Africa, Slovenia, Chile/Algeria please.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

I just calculated the seedings using both the 2006 (last 2 WCs weighted, plus last 3 years rankings not weighted) and the 2002/1998 (last 3 WCs weighted, plus last 3 years rankings not weighted) methods. On either basis the seeds come out the same:

-South Africa (as hosts)

-Brazil
-Germany
-Italy
-Spain
-England
-Argentina
-France

As a caveat, for the rankings component as the Nov'09 rankings aren't out yet, I've used Oct'09.

That means the seeded pots above look to be accurate.

There was a rumour that the last WC component would be dropped... and it comes out exactly the same unless you only use the latest rankings instead of the last three years. If you only use the latest rankings France would miss out and be replaced by the Netherlands.

/Anorak mode off/

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

I just ran a World Cup draw of my own, and we got Argentina, Portugal and Nigeria ... fortunately, I'm dreadful at predictions, so at least we're not going to get those 3 teams!

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Hey Buffoon II, looking at the ordering of the teams in the Pot 1 in your quote there, it matches the exact seeding order if the seeding follows the 1998 and 2002 world cup methodology but not 2006's. To be honest, that makes me suspect it is not offical. Can I ask the source? FIFA don't usually issue the pots until after the November rankings are updated. SiNZ2009-11-19 15:13:06

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Source is goal.com, which is why i have listed it as TBC.

All looks to be in order though.

Three for me, and two for them.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

fellas, i was relying on our collective wisdom in outlining how i thought the draw works

let me know if im telling porkies - http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/blogs/hand-of-god/3079304/Dream-Cup-draws-and-cheating-French

and ill fix. hopefully ok

Marius Lacatus2009-11-19 15:19:40

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Hmmm, does that make this another hand of god thread buckle.

Banstick.

Seriously now if you want the full deal you need El Grap. Legendary for such nerdery.

Incredible stamina. No shame. Yellow Fever.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

I believe South Africa have already been drawn into Group A. Apart from that it all looks spot on.

Three for me, and two for them.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Off topic (sort of): another good blog Samuel Buckle.

Incredible stamina. No shame. Yellow Fever.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

thanks b2

it was based on discussions involving el grap elsewhere.

go away smithy, i was after peer review.

continue

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

SiNZ wrote:

There was a rumour that the last WC component would be dropped... and it comes out exactly the same.

I'll correct myself before someone else notices (!). In the above instance, it would be:

-South Africa (as hosts)

-Spain

-Brazil

-Italy

-Germany

-Argentina

-Netherlands

-France

I.e. England lose out to the Dutch, the effect of Euro2008.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Marius Lacatus wrote:

fellas, i was relying on our collective wisdom in outlining how i thought the draw works

ï¿½

let me know if im telling porkies - http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/blogs/hand-of-god/3079304/Dream-Cup-draws-and-cheating-French

ï¿½

ï¿½and ill fix. hopefully ok

You should of mentioned we were Nelsen, Fallon less when we played SA but anyway... Won't our pot be Pot 4 as we are weaker then Pot 3. Not that it matters but...

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

I agree with the Hand of God group of NZ, SA, Slovakia, and Chile. Though I wouldn't be fussed if Slovakia and Slovenia were switched.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Draw is live on SS2 Saturday 5th at 6am

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

All nighter after the Nix turn over Malben. Hard News2009-11-19 15:42:09

How's my driving? - Whine here

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Reckon the concil will set up a big screen next to the bucket fountain for us?

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

If council don't then I might do something at K Rock for the Kate Place Elite.

Bacon sarnies on the bbq (that I need to buy)...

Incredible stamina. No shame. Yellow Fever.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

According to people on the message boards at FIFA's site, France wont be in the top pot?

I have seen various websites say difference things.

When are the pots announced by FIFA?

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Usually after the November rankings are out - because they're a component of the calculation. I've used the October rankings for now.

Using the 2006 method, France have a reasonably comfortable lead on the last seeded spot with 49.17 points versus Portugal's 47.50 and Netherland's 43.00.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

I'm suprised that the Netherlands aren't in the top?? It baffles me tbh. When did they last lose a game?

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

The seeding calc uses two inputs: last two (or three for 02/98) World Cups, weighted so that the 2006 counts for twice as much as 2002; average of ranking position (relative to other 31 teams) as at end of 2007, 2008 and Nov 09 (only Oct available at the moment).

The Dutch breaks down as follows:

For 2006 Round Two exit with 3rd best record amongst R2 exiting teams: 11 points (double weighting).

For 2002, did not qualify so no points.

Weighting of Previous World Cups is therefore 22 divided by three = 14.67

As at Dec 2007, ranking position is 8th best of the 32, so 25 points.

As at Dec 2008, ranking position is 3rd best of the 32, so 30 points.

As at Oct 2009, ranking position is 3rd best of the 32, so 30 points.

Average ranking points is therefore 85 divided by three = 28.33

Total seeding points is 43.00 i.e. 9th best, so they miss by 2 places.

Their rankings component is the 6th best of the 32 qualifiers, but their previous tournament component is 12th best.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

If you have any countries you're specifically interested in, I'll break down their calc for you to compare. I could do all 32 for you, but I doubt everyone else is as big an anorak as I am for this sort of thing!

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

France will be seeded, the November rankings won't change enough for Portugal and the Dutch to overtake them. So the seeded teams Buffon posted are all correct.

The only thing we need confirmation for from FIFA is in which pot the CONMEBOL non-seeds and CONCACAF teams will be placed. But we'll definitely be in the same pot with the AFC teams, meaning we won't be able to be in the same group as Australia, or, in my opinion, the weakest team in the tournament, North Korea, which is a bit of shame.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

chance of us pulling Chilie, South Africa, and Slovakia is 0.02%. 2 in a thousand. Assuiming the chance of getting each team is equal. I think i did my maths right

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

I make it 0.2%. i.e. 12.5% cubed, as there's a 1 in 8 for each opponent.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Yeah that sounds more realistic. I just hope for South Africa and if not England

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Haha the South Africans are probably praying for us too

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

? another thread? Why don't people bother to search before posting? I had something to say but I can't be bother to bring up the same stuff again as it will get too long.

Anyway my hope is for South Africa, Solovena and Algeria group.

Solovena is a cold country and 90% of their country is 200 metres above seas level, they will suffer more than we would in the hot climate, ideal to be the first to play them.

Algeria is a lowest ranked CAF team (besides SA) surely the weakest of the pot however being a CAF country may enjoy the ground conditions in SA.

South Africa is the weakest seeded team being the host at a ranking lower than ours!! I know think that being a host at that ranking will have a chance at getting to the next round especially when other teams are usually much higher.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

AllWhitebelievr wrote:

Dude, there's so much wrong in this post I don't know where to begin. OK.

First thing. You can't have two African sides in the same group (the only confederation that can have two teams in the same group is UEFA). So if we draw South Africa as our seed, Algeria's off the table. Can't get them

Second. Slovenia a cold country? What? It's right next to Croatia, and has a similar climate to northern Croatia and northern Croatian coast. It does get pretty cold there in winter (as it does in most of Croatia), but summers are very hot, with regular 30+ degrees in summer.

Third. In case you haven't noticed, the World Cup in South Africa will be held when it's winter over there, so high temperatures will not be an issue!el grapadura2009-11-20 08:53:53

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

AllWhitebelievr wrote:

? another thread? Why don't people bother to search before posting? I had something to say but I can't be bother to bring up the same stuff again as it will get too long.

Ahhh, but this one is official (or at least was, now stickied anyway).

Thought i'd make one and jazz it up a bit, with cool graphics and pictures and so on.

Hope you don't lose too much sleep over it AWB.

Three for me, and two for them.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

So have the pots been officially announced yet??????

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

I believe we are just waiting on FIFA to announce the rankings for this month, which should be some time later today or overnight (I'm no good with World Time Zones unfortunately).

The 'pseudo-pots' such as they are at this stage, are believed to be an accurate representation of what the actual pots will look like, barring a remarkable change in ranking points over the past month.

Three for me, and two for them.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Will our qualification mean we get our highest ever ranking ? Which is 50 odd ?

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

I doubt it. We only went up 9 in the ELO rankings (now at 74, I believe), and I doubt that we would go up by more than about 10 in the FIFA rankings.

Ramming liberal dribble down your throat since 2009
This forum needs less angst and more Kate Bush threads

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

simon_hampton wrote:

Will our qualification mean we get our highest ever ranking ? Which is 50 odd ?

Record is 48 I believe. If we beat that anytime soon I'll be a happy lad.

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