Interesting statistical analysis on reddit by /u/3345892
As a neutral observer I've really enjoyed the performance of your new #1 Alex Paulsen.
There's no doubt he's had a huge impact on the season the Nix are currently having. But is it possible to measure the impact?
I thought it would be interesting to compare Wellington Phoenix shot data from this season (23/24) with last season (22/23). I was originally planning on turning this into a YouTube video but I have found myself with a sickness which requires me to sit on the toilet for most of the day, so here we are typing this out...
The following data has been taken from all regular season games in 22/23 and 23/24 not including pre-season games, cup games or knockout matches. I wasn't able to find xg stats anywhere, so if anyone knows where to find in depth A-League stats so we can look into this further please let me know (SOURCE FOUND. HAVE ADDED BELOW)! How did I find it? Literally sifting through Google match stats like a maniac.
I wanted to see if there were any clear indicators of a direct impact from Paulsen on the Nix success this season. And let's just say, its pretty crazy. And if you've read this far, than you'll appreciate it as much as me.
The results:
With chiefy in charge the Phoenix have been much more solid at the back this season. Purely down to the keeper? Probably not.
But what if I told you that the Wellington Phoenix have faced more shots on target, at their goal this season than they did last season...
22/23 shots faced on target 141 23/24 shots faced on target 145
Okay so not by much but it still shows a similar amount of chances created by opposition teams.
So let's see how the keepers dealt with them.
Oli saved 105. Paulsen saved 119.
Oli saved 74.5% of the shots faced. Paulsen saved 82% of the shots faced.
Or
25.5% of the shots Sail faced resulted in a goal 18% of the shots Paulsen faced resulted in a goal
So how do these save percentages look in real match data?
It means
Oli had 5 clean sheets. Paulsen had 10 clean sheets.
Oli conceded 36 goals Paulsen conceded 26 goals
Sail averaged 1.4 goals conceded per game Paulsen averaged 1 goal conceded per game
Sails Nix ended in 6th Paulsen's... top 2 finish.
Of course the teams performance isn't purely down to the keeper. But there's no doubt looking at these numbers that the effect Paulsen's had on the season is massive.
Anyways, better get back to pooping 💩
Have a great day!
EDIT: Using Fotmob in depth data we can compare some more metrics between Sail 22/23 and Paulsen 23/24. Which confirms the findings above.
Goals prevented: Sail -0.93 Paulsen 12.94
xGOT faced Sail 44.07 Paulsen 38.94
High claim Sail 18 Paulsen 37
Error led to goal Sail 2 Paulsen 2
Penalties saved Sail 2 Paulsen 3
Pass accuracy Sail 64.1% Paulsen 74.1%
https://old.reddit.com/r/WellingtonPhoenix/comments/1cfifvy/the_impact_of_a_goalkeeper_sail_v_paulsen_looking/
