A League title tracker: Come on Phoenix!

InsulinMachine

Friar Tuck

Scenarios for us to win the league assuming the Mariners win their last 3 games after they play us:

- If we beat the Mariners, we’ll only need 4 points from our last 3 games

- If we draw, we need 7 points from our last 3 games 

- If we lose, we need all 9 points from our last 3 and the Mariners to drop points in at least 1 game

I really can't see CCM drop points in their last 3 games. We need at least a draw on saturday. It's all in our hands, we'll need to come out all guns blazing

Looking at the table you'd think CCM will win the last 3 games but if Adelaide can keep up their form they may be an outside chance of top 6 when they play CCM so wouldn't rule them out of an upset. Western have only lost once in the last 5 and they'll be fighting not be wood spooners so they may be able to get the result. Jets I have no faith in getting a result tho.

Jets might get up for CCM, it's a derby and anything can happen.

Basically the ball is in our court, we can win it by getting two less points than CCM from the last few games. Rather be in our position than theirs.

Ryan

Jets might get up for CCM, it's a derby and anything can happen.

Basically the ball is in our court, we can win it by getting two less points than CCM from the last few games. Rather be in our position than theirs.

Could also be the last ever F3 Derby if worst comes to worst

The Olyroos have called up Jacob Farrell & Alou Kuol, so they arrive in Doha on April 8th & will miss the end of the season for CCM.

Does anyone know if they do the trophy ceremony after the game that would decide you winning the league or if the team had a home game after that they’d wait for that game to do it? 

Because there is probs a good chance if we win it’ll be the Jets game.

Just got my flexi flights ChCh to Wellington for the weekend of the final. I've never sports betted but I imagine this is what it must feel like haha

Gotta figure they'd wait till the last game so the last game doesn't feel pointless.

Last season Melb City were uncatchable as Premiers elect by game week 24, but were actually crowned champions 2 weeks later in game week 26 (last round regular season) their next home game at AAMI Park. They ended up 11 points clear of CCM in 2nd.

But lets be honest more of us remember the big Mariners upset win in the GF.

https://neoskosmos.com/en/2023/04/17/sport/football/melbourne-city-crowned-a-league-men-premiers-for-third-consecutive-season/

https://us.soccerway.com/national/australia/a-league/20222023/regular-season/r70406/

Anyway by the same logic APL will hopefully be arranging a presentation at the ROF 27th April for the Nix. Game verus MAC. If so will be a big excited crowd. ANZAC Weekend. Don't be out of town.  Then a week off and into finals action.

RR

The Olyroos have called up Jacob Farrell & Alou Kuol, so they arrive in Doha on April 8th & will miss the end of the season for CCM.

Teague and Valupillay from Mel Vic also. Who will both miss the Nix game following weekend.

Ranix

RR

The Olyroos have called up Jacob Farrell & Alou Kuol, so they arrive in Doha on April 8th & will miss the end of the season for CCM.

Teague and Valupillay from Mel Vic also. Who will both miss the Nix game following weekend.

Excellent news, Teague is a monster.

Excellent news. Vallupillay is always threatening in the box.

We're playing 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 11th to finish.

If we win the league we'll deserve it but it's not over yet.  But beating CCM sure gets us a long way there.

COYN

I’m sorry??? On chiefs interview today, a reporter claimed David dome said if we get a home grand final it won’t be played in Wellington??
What’s happening am I out of the loop or something?

Sounds like a journo got his wires crossed (maybe Domey referring  to the fact that we havent guaranteed a home final yet?). They've already moved the event that was supposed to happen at the Cake Tin on GF weekend.

I'd definitely like to hear confirmation on that.  It would be moronic not to let us host not to mention terrible press.

If we do host, do we think we could get a sell-out?

I remember the quarterfinal vs Newcastle about 12 years ago when we got 31,000 or so. There doesn't seem to be the same level of engagement these days, but you never know. People love a winning side.

Need to hear the Dome interview, the only reason I see us not getting it is if the APL decides for commercial reasons it's better to host it in Australia. 

The fact that the stadium has rescheduled the home show on grandfinal weekend shows we're planning for it to be in Wellington and also that one of the fever elite asked the club about it and they said it would be in Wellington.

loyalgunner

I'd definitely like to hear confirmation on that.  It would be moronic not to let us host not to mention terrible press.

If we do host, do we think we could get a sell-out?

I remember the quarterfinal vs Newcastle about 12 years ago when we got 31,000 or so. There doesn't seem to be the same level of engagement these days, but you never know. People love a winning side.

And it's a grand final.  The once in a lifetime vibes should be enough to sell out.

Surely our next game against victory attracts a 10000 crowd.

It is a Friday night, so should be a loud Zone crowd at least

Just watched the David Ball clip on Sky Sport socials and i came away thinking he's going to score an important goal in the next 2 months 

Is domey trolling with this hinting about the final not being in Wellington? Getting attention, engagement, motivating Wellington fans who aren't showing up to turn up, no such thing as bad publicity kind of thing?

He was pretty clear in the tweet that the finals will be in Wellington. The "lets take it one game at a time" comment is confusing though.

After the earthquake in Christchurch John Key promised that the rugby world cup would be held in Christchurch, but then engineers looked at the stadium and condemned it - so there's always the possibility of circumstances which make it impossible and hindsight was a bitch for John.

It is the "extenuating circumstances" part of that tweet that makes me think it isn't just Domey being misinterpreted by the reporter. Because if he was misinterpreted it'd be so easy to say it will be in Wellington full stop. The one game at a time thing could just be echoing Chiefy's constant refrain and a reminder there is a lot of water to go under the bridge before the final. 

I think he may be being a bit mischievous here. He doesn't really want the final to be in Auckland (the nix would get very little of the extra ticket revenue which would all be going to the APL). But he could very well be implying it might happen as it is sure to attract attention. 

The ambiguity, even though it’s minor, does seem a bit odd. Why not be unequivocal? He’s generally very forthright isn’t he? 

The let’s just take this one game at a time will be referring to the fact that we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves that we’re gonna make the grand final. Nothing more than that.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/sport/2024/04/football-confusion-reigns-over-wellington-phoenix-ability-to-host-a-league-grand-final.amp.html

So it turns out Domey just thought it wasn't a done deal that there would be a Wellington final if we finish top & make it to it, he thought APL might still need convincing. But APL has since clarified that it will be in Wellington if the Nix make it there as the highest ranked team, so it seems Domey's concerns are completely unwarranted. 

I somehow incorrectly got the idea that the final might be in Auckland instead, there's been absolutely no indication of that. Perhaps the implication was that the APL would want to see it staged in Australia instead. Either way though, seems like there is nothing to worry about. I also mistakenly inferred that Domey might be trolling with this, but that also doesn't seem to be the case at all. 

I think he's just being pragmatic.

"extenuating circumstances" basically means something out of his control.  E.g. stadium gets closed, a pandemic, the beehive axes so many agencies that Wellington actually closes.

"Let's take it one game at a time" is because a) first place isn't guaranteed yet, and if we get first, we still gotta win the semis.

If he said the game will definitely be in Welly I could see people packing sharks when we don't make the final and the game isn't there. 

Central coast  have a game Wednesday 18th 5pm local time in Kyrgyzstan. Done research, the EARLIEST they can get back in Sydney is Friday, 6am. They have until Sunday 3pm when they play Adelaide , just over 48 hrs. They will sleep on plane and likely have  jet lag as well as fatigue from playing a crucial match.
Surely they drop points in one of their games.
At the same time, I don’t think we will win all our last 3 games.
If we win our last 3 games I think we will win the premiership.

COME ON! Get to the stadium on Friday night, bring your friends, work, family everybody get a win is the MOST important thing now.

I wonder if the Mariners are looking at getting a charter plane, for at least part of their trip to & from Kyrgyzstan?

Winning their 2 legged (East Zone) semi final tie against this Kyrgyz team is worth min $USD750K ($AUD1.14M).

$USD750K is what the losing finalist gets. Final winner gets $USD1.5M.

Other 2 legged semi (West Zone) is between an Omani club & a Lebananese club. Either of these 2 clubs will host the one off final. Last year final was hosted in the East Zone??

AFC Cup final 5th May, is same week of ALM Elimination Finals. So today Mariners winning will be a relief for APL & AFC. Unlikely now CCM won't finish top 2, and so they will avoid Elimination Finals (spots 3-6). Ideally for whoever plays CCM in their ALM semi (2 legs) that Mariners make the AFC Cup final with it's long haul to Beirut (or some neutal venue) or Muscat. 

That draw with Brisbane really is going to haunt us.

Friday night's game vs Victory is another massive one for us. They will be breathing down our neck for second if we lose.

Could we get a thread going for victory game

RR

Friday night's game vs Victory is another massive one for us. They will be breathing down our neck for second if we lose.

Our last game against Victory, they did not have Fornaroli. He's back and on fire.

Lowest we can now finish is 3rd thanks to Newcastle beating Sydney, leaving the Smurfs 11 points behind us.  

A win over Vuck secures top-2 as well, and a draw would need us to lose our last two and Vuck win their last two. Get that win out of the way first and secure a week off as well as choice of which semi leg to host.

Then see what Mariners do. All this doom and gloom is forgetting that we are still level on points with them. Win our last 3 games and Mariners drop points - we are Premiers.

When should I go about booking flights for the home semi? Do you think the club will communicate openly about when they want that fixture to be played?

Good summary of final 3 games for each of Nix, Mariners & VUC - the 3 contenders to win Preimership Plate and/or finish top 2.

Could yet be a drama filled day 27th April, fans watching other games on their phones!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/350237952/whats-next-wellington-phoenix-after-dropping-second-league-men

If the race for the top spot – or the top two spots – is still alive come the final weekend of the season, it will be decided in the space of five hours on the evening of Saturday, April 27.

The Phoenix and the Mariners – who will host FC Abdysh-Ata Kant during the weekend beforehand – will play at the same time, at home against Macarthur FC and away to the Jets, in an F3 Derby, respectively.