keeper stats for wellingtonphoenixfan
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Sorry to continue this everyone but I feel I need to delve into it a bit further to try and talk some sense into WellingtonPhoenixFan (Mrs Paston).
First up, I actually don't really have a preference for either keeper. It just pissed me off that WellingtonPhoenixFan used one very simple statistic to try and prove one was better.
So if you look at a couple of things:
1. Moss has played the top 4 teams in 68% of his games, with Paston only 41%.
So the games have been tougher for the whole team.
2. He has played with the 'worse' defesive line ups. For this I have grouped the back 5 into 3 groups (All have Lochhead):
Grade A: Any combination of Dodd/Sigmund/Durante at CB with either Muscat or Sigmund at RB and McKain at DM. (10 games)
Grade B: Any combination of McKain/Dodd/Sigmund/Durante at CB with either Muscat or Sigmund at RB and Dodd/Johnson/Ferrante/Brown at DM (holding midfield). (5 games)
Grade C: Mulligan at RB (happen to have McKain and Durante at CB for all, and either Johnson or Dodd at DM). (3 games)
Moss has had Grade A only 37% of the time, Grade B 32% and Grade C 32%, compared to Paston 76%, 24% and 0% respectively.
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If Mrs Paston had watched more than just her son's performances she would have observed that the turnaround in the performance of the defence has come about through the introduction of Sigmund. He has been the rock of the defence since he came into the side.
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The guy thinks Paston is better, so? Does that make him a bad person?
For my mind Moss is a better shot stopper but Paston has strengths in other areas, his height makes him better in the air. But I guess it is a fun arguement
For my mind Moss is a better shot stopper but Paston has strengths in other areas, his height makes him better in the air. But I guess it is a fun arguement
www.kiwifromthecouch.blogspot.com
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Well your stats don't include form at the time of the game and there position in the table when they played. It should also be top 4 scoring teams which are Adelaide, Melbourne, CCM and Sydney because you can be in the top four and score the least amount of goals in a season (re Newcastle Jets last season with 25 goals)
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I have no problem with him rating Paston, just the stats he uses to back it up.
Fine regarding top scorers.
Moss: top2 32%, mid4 58%, bot1 11%
Paston 24%, 53%, 24%.
Happy yet!
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I have no problem with him rating Paston, just the stats he uses to back it up.
Yes but those stats show nothing at all for an example he may of played the least scoring side 24% of the time but they may not of scored no goals against him. �
Fine regarding top scorers.
Moss: top2 32%, mid4 58%, bot1 11%
Paston 24%, 53%, 24%.
�
Happy yet!
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You didnt need to hijack an entire thread about it?
Allegedly
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I have no problem with him rating Paston, just the stats he uses to back it up.
�
Fine regarding top scorers.
Moss: top2 32%, mid4 58%, bot1 11%
Paston 24%, 53%, 24%.
�
Happy yet!
Quality stuff, energy24.7. Lovin' your work.
He who lives by statistics shall die by statistics
Apparently I'm apathetic, but I couldn't care less.
"Being a Partick Thistle fan sets you apart. It means youre a free thinker. It also means your team has no money." Tim Luckhurst, The Independent, 4th December 2003
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Actually your stats are wrong Paston has played 4.5 games against top 4 scoring teams and 4 games against others.
While Moss has also played 4.5 games against top 4 scoring team but however has played 5 against others.
But if you want to continue this "discussion" just PM me others don't have to put up with this.wellyphoenixfan2009-01-05 23:11:48
While Moss has also played 4.5 games against top 4 scoring team but however has played 5 against others.
But if you want to continue this "discussion" just PM me others don't have to put up with this.wellyphoenixfan2009-01-05 23:11:48
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You didnt need to hijack an entire thread about it?
Good point.
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go the obsessives 
what you need now is a system to weight each of the variables you have thrown into the model
e.g a mutiplier of (for instance) .72 for position in the table at time of match, 1.3 for goals scoring ranking prior to match kick off
obviously, the goal scoring ranking would itself need some correction to allow for the fact that a high ranking team in terms of goal scoring in the early rounds may have played say 3 out of 3 games against the teams with the three weakest defences
bloody hell, where's that mad statisticans SiNZ when you need him
p.s. - some inclusion of wind speed is also -surely - essential
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go the obsessives �
��
what you need now is a system to weight each of the variables you have thrown into the model
�
e.g a�mutiplier of (for instance) .72 for position in the table at time of match, 1.3 for goals scoring ranking prior to match kick off
�
obviously, the goal scoring ranking would itself need some correction to allow for the fact that a high ranking team in terms of goal scoring in the early rounds may have played say 3 out of 3 games against the teams with the three weakest defences
�
bloody hell, where's that mad statisticans SiNZ when you need him
�
p.s. - some inclusion of wind speed is also� -surely - essential
Very good tigers. But didn't he actually do that weighting thing for something? Can't remember what it was for though.
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Central Hawkes Bay Nix
and tragic follower of Charlton Athletic
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I feel this is kind of an interesting topic being killed by some lumbering analysis.
not that I'm saying I have got the best ideas- there has to be a football pedant with a brain and too much time out there...AWB??
but say-
corners caught or punched where we have regained possesion and carried the ball out of our half (not just cleared it)
ditto on crosses
saves where we have regained possesion
long goal kicks where we have regained possession
saves made in a period of sustained opposition pressure (ie time in possession and territory) where the opposition has not scored
other ideas...?
not that I'm saying I have got the best ideas- there has to be a football pedant with a brain and too much time out there...AWB??
but say-
corners caught or punched where we have regained possesion and carried the ball out of our half (not just cleared it)
ditto on crosses
saves where we have regained possesion
long goal kicks where we have regained possession
saves made in a period of sustained opposition pressure (ie time in possession and territory) where the opposition has not scored
other ideas...?
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If you are not interested in a thread, please don't come in and try and tell everyone it is boring. I've deleted some crap from in here. Some people are interested in stats and sometimes they can be illuminating. It is nice to have some semi-intelligent discussion from time to time. Carry on please...
Normo's coming home
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naw man if ah was a jokin' i'd say Mark Paston walked into a bar and boy was he cross!
in all seriousness though- why don't we analyse it by referees (games per keeper) or by crowd size or by home advantage or by weather or ...
I'm trying to get at stats that show the keeper has made a contribution to holding out an attack or ending an attack. Or simply making the game easier for us by hanging onto possession once we've won it.
martinb2009-01-06 00:19:42
in all seriousness though- why don't we analyse it by referees (games per keeper) or by crowd size or by home advantage or by weather or ...
I'm trying to get at stats that show the keeper has made a contribution to holding out an attack or ending an attack. Or simply making the game easier for us by hanging onto possession once we've won it.
martinb2009-01-06 00:19:42
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Actually your stats are wrong Paston has played 4.5 games against top 4 scoring teams and 4 games against others.
While Moss has also played 4.5 games against top 4 scoring team but however has played 5 against others.
But if you want to continue this "discussion" just PM me others don't have to put up with this.
While Moss has also played 4.5 games against top 4 scoring team but however has played 5 against others.
But if you want to continue this "discussion" just PM me others don't have to put up with this.
No, and this just goes to show you don't actually read my posts properly. I've grouped the top 2 scoring teams (CC and Melb on 32 and 31) and middle 4 (Syd, Ade 27 & Per, Que on 25).
Anyway, the point of me using stats was not to prove that Moss was better but that there are more to the stats you were trying to use to prove Paston was better. As far as I'm concerned you're the one that needs to get more info to prove you're right.
Or you could just be honest with us (and yourself) and say that the reason you think Paston is better is just because he's a personal favourite of yours. No one can then argue that with you. You're entitled to have favourites. I have one in Christie - because he's from Whangarei, and you don't see me cherry picking stats to prove he's better than Ferrante or anything.
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For me Moss is the best reflex shot stopper in the A-League...no question!!!
Paston is better in the air, distributes the ball better i.e further and more accurately.
I would be happy to have either of them in goal for the phoenix
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I have no problem with him rating Paston, just the stats he uses to back it up.
Yes but those stats show nothing at all for an example he may of played the least scoring side 24% of the time but they may not of scored no goals against him.
Fine regarding top scorers.
Moss: top2 32%, mid4 58%, bot1 11%
Paston 24%, 53%, 24%.
Happy yet!
Loving the in depth analysis... but how can you say that these stats show nothing at all but live or die on the fact that because Paston has had less goals conceded in the games he has played that he is clearly a better organizer of his defence?
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I have no problem with him rating Paston, just the stats he uses to back it up.
Yes but those stats show nothing at all for an example he may of played the least scoring side 24% of the time but they may not of scored no goals against him.
Fine regarding top scorers.
Moss: top2 32%, mid4 58%, bot1 11%
Paston 24%, 53%, 24%.
Happy yet!
Loving the in depth analysis... but how can you say that these stats show nothing at all but live or die on the fact that because Paston has had less goals conceded in the games he has played that he is clearly a better organizer of his defence?
That is precisely what I was about to post. WPF has no right to criticise others stats when he only relies on one incredibly simple one.
I think WPF just likes Paston better because his mo was waaaaay better than Moss'.
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Oh and Tony P, if you need a team statistician just give me a yell! ;)
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what about saves?
Oh Wellington is wonderful. We got the wind, the rain and the phoenix. Oh Wellington is wonderful.
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Paston doesn't need to make saves because he organises the defence.
Moss has to make spectacular saves because he doesn't know how to organise a defence.
All the goals Moss has conceded are his fault directly.
None of the goals Paston has conceded are his fault, or due to his defence being disorganised.
I expect this infallible argument will now make any further discussion on this redundant.
Moss has to make spectacular saves because he doesn't know how to organise a defence.
All the goals Moss has conceded are his fault directly.
None of the goals Paston has conceded are his fault, or due to his defence being disorganised.
I expect this infallible argument will now make any further discussion on this redundant.
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Paston doesn't need to make saves because he organises the defence.
Moss has to make spectacular saves because he doesn't know how to organise a defence.
All the goals Moss has conceded are his fault directly.
None of the goals Paston has conceded are his fault, or due to his defence being disorganised.
I expect this infallible argument will now make any further discussion on this redundant.
Moss has to make spectacular saves because he doesn't know how to organise a defence.
All the goals Moss has conceded are his fault directly.
None of the goals Paston has conceded are his fault, or due to his defence being disorganised.
I expect this infallible argument will now make any further discussion on this redundant.
I think you forgot the
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Ok El G the first two points is what I am saying but the last two are not however. But how is saying that a team is playing a top 2/4 team X amount of times relevent? It is like saying that Smeltz has played Newcastle 3 times and thats all it doesn't give us any extra infomation like how many goals he has scored against them etc.
By saying that Moss has made 33 saves in 9.5 games and conceded 17 goals and that Paston has made 18 saves in 8.5 games and conceded 10 goals shows a connection between the two stats surely you guys can see that?
And for the record none of your stats have actually proved that Moss is better mine have proved statistically he is better regardless of who he is playing. Also I said you should use top 4 scoring teams not top 2 so I was going for that and if you had read what I said correctly you would of got these stats:
Paston has played top 4 scoring teams: 53% of the time
Moss has played top for scoring teams: 47% of the time
By saying that Moss has made 33 saves in 9.5 games and conceded 17 goals and that Paston has made 18 saves in 8.5 games and conceded 10 goals shows a connection between the two stats surely you guys can see that?
And for the record none of your stats have actually proved that Moss is better mine have proved statistically he is better regardless of who he is playing. Also I said you should use top 4 scoring teams not top 2 so I was going for that and if you had read what I said correctly you would of got these stats:
Paston has played top 4 scoring teams: 53% of the time
Moss has played top for scoring teams: 47% of the time
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Why have you completely ignored my defender stats? Surely they are the most damning. It's clear, with how many saves Moss has had to make that his defense are letting him down.
Surely you understand that the personnel of the defense is the first thing to look at, before blaming it on the keepers communication?
You also don't take into account the quality of the goals they have each conceded, and without spending another couple of hours researching all the goals conceded, is it not a fair assumption that the 'better' teams (ie top 4) might create better chances and have better shots than those in the bottom 3?
Which would make the 'who they played' stat fairly relevant?
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No because for example Sigmund played in the game against Adelaide does that make him a crap defender because of that one game? You need to find out how many goals were scored against each defender.
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Ok El G the first two points is what I am saying but the last two are not however. But how is saying that a team is playing a top 2/4 team X amount of times relevent? It is like saying that Smeltz has played Newcastle 3 times and thats all it doesn't give us any extra infomation like how many goals he has scored against them etc.
By saying that Moss has made 33 saves in 9.5 games and conceded 17 goals and that Paston has made 18 saves in 8.5 games and conceded 10 goals shows a connection between the two stats surely you guys can see that?
And for the record none of your stats have actually proved that Moss is better mine have proved statistically he is better regardless of who he is playing. Also I said you should use top 4 scoring teams not top 2 so I was going for that and if you had read what I said correctly you would of got these stats:
Paston has played top 4 scoring teams: 53% of the time
Moss has played top for scoring teams: 47% of the time
By saying that Moss has made 33 saves in 9.5 games and conceded 17 goals and that Paston has made 18 saves in 8.5 games and conceded 10 goals shows a connection between the two stats surely you guys can see that?
And for the record none of your stats have actually proved that Moss is better mine have proved statistically he is better regardless of who he is playing. Also I said you should use top 4 scoring teams not top 2 so I was going for that and if you had read what I said correctly you would of got these stats:
Paston has played top 4 scoring teams: 53% of the time
Moss has played top for scoring teams: 47% of the time
Out of curiosity, do you play football, and what position?
As to your point regarding the 'organisation' of defence, that's a moot point at best (persoanlly I think it's a cop out argument, but anyhoo)...take the drubbing by Adelaide. We got truly spanked, and our defence was as poor in that game with either man in goal. How about the last game against Perth? Moss had next to nothing to do in that game - was that a sign of his great organising of the defence? Like a lot of people have said, there's a lot more that needs to be taken into account than the keeper's 'organisational' ability, which you greatly overestimate.
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This is great! I, personally, prefer Moss, but I dont mind Paston and, despite what I felt was a shaky start (dont want to be proved wrong with some obscure stat!), he came into some decent form near the end. However, Moss pulls off some super saves. But meh, stats can be chosen to suit any argument...why dont you take their international careers into it as well?! While you're at it, how about their form in the Under-15s!
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Ok El G im an attacking midfielder. But for our two big losses this year Moss was in goal for all of them he had a pretty good defence IMO:
6-1 He had Lochhead Dura Siggy and Muscat (He conceded 4)
4-2 Lochhead Dura McKain and Muscat (All 4)
Now Paston has only ever conceded 2 goals in one match that is his ma (I am not saying however he would of kept this record had he played the full 90 against Adelaide).
Also because it is next to impossible to measure hwo organized the defence a large part of my argument can't be proved though you have to think why are all these stats in Pastons favour?wellyphoenixfan2009-01-06 12:13:29
6-1 He had Lochhead Dura Siggy and Muscat (He conceded 4)
4-2 Lochhead Dura McKain and Muscat (All 4)
Now Paston has only ever conceded 2 goals in one match that is his ma (I am not saying however he would of kept this record had he played the full 90 against Adelaide).
Also because it is next to impossible to measure hwo organized the defence a large part of my argument can't be proved though you have to think why are all these stats in Pastons favour?wellyphoenixfan2009-01-06 12:13:29
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Now Paston has only ever conceded 2 goals in one match that is his ma (I am not saying however he would of kept this record had he played the full 90 against Adelaide).
He conceded 4 against Adelaide last season.
And even you have to admit that against Adelaide we'd have been spanked even if both Moss and Paston kept at the same time.
Moss was poor from memory against Melbourne in August, but so was Paston against Adelaide last season. Everyone has bad games.
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These stats are all from this season because this is when each player has had a fair amount of time to play. Though would you say Moss was poor in the second half vs Adelaide?
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Frankly, I'm surprised that the "tallness" factor, the respective size of their hands and the length and breadth of their 'marriage furniture' haven't been taken into account yet...
Apparently I'm apathetic, but I couldn't care less.
"Being a Partick Thistle fan sets you apart. It means youre a free thinker. It also means your team has no money." Tim Luckhurst, The Independent, 4th December 2003
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What is our stats for both keepers, seperated by jersey colours? I have a hunch we're more successful when either Paston or Moss wear green 
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What is our stats for both keepers, seperated by jersey colours? I have a hunch we're more successful when either Paston or Moss wear green�
Well the 6-1 thumping made that stat true...
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These stats are all from this season because this is when each player has had a fair amount of time to play. [/QUOTE]
Fair enough.
[QUOTE=wellyphoenixfan] Though would you say Moss was poor in the second half vs Adelaide?
Fair enough.
[QUOTE=wellyphoenixfan] Though would you say Moss was poor in the second half vs Adelaide?
No. From memory, could have done better on the fourth goal (reacted late to the shot that was closish to him, but Cassio had a lot of time to shoot, so hard to blame Moss for it). None of the other goals were his bad.
Paston was excellent in the first half of that game, although he too could have reacted better for the second goal - that shot was also close to him, but he must have seen it late, and it was a follow-up too, so shouldn't be blamed for it.
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Ok but those two goals of Cassio's in the second half were very similar and his reaction were poor but that game was really that they played brilliantly and we played terribly. I think we will find out next season who is the better keeper one way or the other next season.wellyphoenixfan2009-01-06 12:31:53
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