Phoenix Ownership - Rob says FTFFA

How about these for some METRICS! Here is a table I tried to post the other day. 

Who says Wellington Phoenix isn't pulling its weight with croud numbers. (same story with memberships). Seems to me its most of the others that are pretty low performing. That is not knocking the others at all - just putting some real 'metrics' out there. 

NZ Football have to cook the books even to turn a profit, they can't afford to stump up 2.5 Million. This is also 2.5 Million that the Phoenix do generate, it's not like no one watches them. As has been said they rate higher than CCM and the Jets and are trending upwards.

Sauce?

Nobody except for us cares about attendance per population, its the bottom line that counts.

Newcastle and Central Coast also care.

That depends on what kind of business-person you are; what business 'smarts' you've got; and what your vision is - the FFA should really be asking the Nix (and CCM) what we're doing so right. Most of the other clubs are doing really poorly given their population advantages. Where is the real business problem here?

CCM's results are skewed by having three other teams within a couple of hours drive. Almost half the league is close enough for them to get a good chunk of away fans.

Also if you take out the impact of good visiting fan numbers for CCM and Newcastle crouds then Wellington's performance is even more notable compared with the rest - I really wish there wasn't so much ignorant comment about croud numbers in Wellington being a problem. 

Would you really want the FFA board leading your business sector if they're as commercially shallow and unsophisticated as they appear? 

There are teams in the Eridivisie that average under 9k, and teams in Serie A that average just over 10.

Be nice for crouds to be bigger, and be nice for us to have a smaller stadium. But it is not the problem. The problem is the fact that they think that a Sydney team will rate the same or higher, cost less to run, and provide more avenues for Australians. Probably all these assumptions are correct, except perhaps the cost, because if history is anything to go by it will have a revolving door of owners and require multiple FFA bailouts.

Could be alluding to Newcastle?

Actually looking at those croud figures I reckon Welnix, Yellow Fever and the Wellington fan community deserve a bloody big pat on the back. It might not be a perfect croud-pulling effort here in Wellington but it sure makes you wonder how dire it must be in some other places. 

Then I must ask again, why did they approve the team in the first place?  Did they actually think that their product was so great that 10% of our population would turn up to games?

the % of population turning up is a relevant metric for how well a club will sell in an area.  If we are above many other teams in that field then it sounds like the FFA screwed up by not googling "Wellington population".

It should also be noted that we are the only Club that has been asked to reinvent themselves in their marketing strategy.

Half of our market was families and kids last season. But now a move to 7pm kick offs Friday/Saturday and Sundays has significantly reduced this segment. 

The club have had to change their marketing strategy.  Previously they were doing school visits and pitching the Club for the long term going after the younger segment but due to the 7pm kick offs they need to go after an older segment and for Friday 7pm a Corporate market which has been reducing hugely at the stadium across all sports for a number of years now.

All due to Australian broadcast requirements foistered on us by, you guessed it, the FFA.

Because they are using the figures as an excuse to get rid of us for either some xenophobic agenda, penny pinching, or just trying to put pressure on the owners to pony up more than other teams.

None of the figures back what they are saying. We are not bottom in the league on any criteria and are improving in all. In fact in a stagnant league we are one of the few shining lights. As has been said Welnix should be lauded.

Our croud figures would not be out of place in many top European leagues.

And they're certainly still screwing up by trying to drop an effective performer. Most businesses like to keep their effective units - if for no other reason to develop best practice for the wider business. The real business heads in Welnix must be so frustrated with this amateur-hour stuff from FFA. Remember - FFA is just Australia's equivalent of NZFA....enough said there?

Not sure if anyone has said this but:

Fudge the FFA #FTFFA

I like the way you think!

Then why do we still have the nixie chicks?

Do those figures include our 'home' games in Auckland and Christchurch?

We've made it onto the Guardian Australia's Cartoon 
"Those godless foreigners form orderly queues to drink CRAFT Beer in their comfortable modern stadium. Some of them even take their shirts off..." 

A little odd, but hey

Gallop's painting himself into a corner with all this metrics bullshark. Its quite likely that they aren't happy about a lot of our numbers, but both the Jets and CCM should be on the chopping block as well. I also think the FFA is unrealistic about the market for football in Australia and New Zealand at that by overestimating it they now think teams and the league are underperforming when they're actually probably at a natural level after a few years of relative stability in the comp. Their myopic obsession with derbies and big markets blinds them to the fact that the Heart were dying and only a stroke off good fortune saved them, and that the success of WSW was more about the fact that there's a much more obvious geographic and cultural divide between Eastern and Western Sydney, and there aren't comparable divisions with any other city in Australia,. For that reasons South Sydney team, a second team in Perth, Brisbane, or Adelaide, or a 3rd Melbourne team  are not going to be like the WSW example - they will be like the Heart except a smaller chunk of the pie. Ignoring mid-sized cities (Canberra, Townsville, Gold Coast, Wollongong) is is obviously the new plan, but how does that help grow football in Australia? 

Having said all that, the most likely key reasons for this decision are because we aare kiwis and easy to scapegoat, because a South Sydney consortium has been making noises and the FFA are blind to the issues with it because of the perceived success of derbies and WSW, and because Gallop, Lowy, Te Bohun etcwant to look like they are making positive changes to a competition that has been accused of stagnating..

Now if Gallop had come out and said "we aren't renewing the Phoenix's license because we think a NZ team shouldn't be in the Australian competition, and because these South Sydney guys want join," then at least it would have been clear about what the issue is. As it is though he's introduced all this bullshark about metrics which is confusing the debate because its unlikely that the numbers would matter if they were twice as good.

Having said that, by mentioning the metrics he's given us room to argue with him on those grounds. It would be hard to argue with the justification if it was expressed as simply no kiwis/more derbies.. That's a bullshark justification too but you can't argue with it on any logical or factual basis. Metrics you can argue with.

Ranting on my phone at work so apologies if this is riddled with typos and weird autocorrect errors. Editing is too hard.

If they came out and said that they had done x number of years as agreed to when they joined AFC, and now they would rather have a Sydney team in the A League rather than the Phoenix it would be an easier pill to swallow.

But you are right the metrics BS and lack of transparency in statements just muddies the bloddy water.

Yep.  Talking about "metrics" made the Jets and CCM sit up and notice even if they're not saying anything publicly, I bet.

I am now convinced that it is almost all to do with TV rights / deals but that we won't ever be told openly by FFA.

Just listened to the Fox pod discussion with Jason Pine etc. It amazes me that they all went on about poor crouds etc in Wellington - this is why having some real stats should matter - but they have to be circulated out into the media. 

If its 'metrics' they want there are plenty that show that Wellington is doing better than most of them. This message really needs to start being be pushed out there as part of a wider strategy to show the value of the nix in as many ways as possible - we need to change the discussion. Some may argue that FFA don't care about that sort of thing but forget trying to convince them - there plenty of their stakeholders, clubs, sponsors etc that do matter. 

And the Sky TV deal price was also discussed but at no point did anyone note that the Phoenix actually had nothing to do with that deal. If it was a failure it wasn't directly ours. 

I think a comprehensive point-by-point rebuttal of these areas of Phoenix 'failure' needs to be compiled and compiled very quickly - before shoving it out hard into the media. 

So we punch above our weight but one would suspect that it's the croud numbers itself, the growth potential and the affect all of that on the SKY TV revenue that's the metrics driving the decision making. A hot-house of football with thousands of eager and active members we are not. If we could capture the magic of the A League in a smaller stadium that attracts sell-out crouds and provides a more intimate atmosphere unique to the location, you might turn the corner as far as maintaining/growing support goes but does it change marketability and reduce the cost to travel?        

Honestly, I think Wellington has provided opportunities to many Australian players and one of them ended up being a Socceroo.

This decision is bad... very bad. Not just for the Phoenix, but for football in Australia too. Every club owner and chairman would be furious and will now have a harder time convincing owners to invest with these sorts of arbitrary decisions.

Gallop is an administrative hack who presided over a dying league in NRL and has taken that touch of death to the FFA. The Melbourne heart proposal was a freaking disaster and a 3rd team in Sydney will destroy the concept  Derby.

I'm actually surprised by such a lack of vision.

Yup, part of their message should be "We wanted more money from Sky TV but we fudgeed up and took a number we weren't happy with.  So to spite Sky TV and all people in the country it operates we are booting your nations only professional football team.  Suck it".

#FTFFA

Statistically looking at attendance rates we actually are a hothouse of football compared to most other cities listed. Plus the growth and development strategy of Welnix would actually be building a growth trend in football participation and interest. Do you think ASB football would have got live coverage if there had been no Nix? An interesting question to ponder. 

I think the answer is no. Sky screwed up losing the EPL but only realised it when their viewer numbers took a hit. The ASB is meant to placate us all that have canned our Sky Sports. It won't.

Even with the live coverage, they're still trying to cargo cult the Premier League by stuffing, at best, 1000 ASB fans in the QBE. It's lunacy.

Apparently only 10k people watch the Phoenix on sky I know a lot of people on here stream, but by definition forum users are tech savy so its a skewed demographic, the bulk of people watch through their decoder. 

That is incredibly low, and I wonder what sort of ratings non Phoenix games get.

I know its not going to happen but if the license is renewed the FFA need to cut their losses with Sky and partner with someone else. Take zero dollars for a few years and cut a deal with TVNZ to show the Phoenix games FTA with pre and post match shows as well as the other league teams, and highlights packages on TVNZ Popup. With a lack of free to air sport you would have an instant win. What do they lose? $180k? It's David Gallops bonus.

I suppose it also depends on infrastructure.  Sky has the set up for filming matches at all of our stadiums etc.  I don't know how much it would cost for TVNZ to record the matches.

But if they did it and cut the advertising revenue between them they could surely make up some money pretty quickly.  Free to air means more eyes, especially students who probably don't have sky.  Free to Air means they could also do blackouts untill 12,000 tickets sold or something (if they expected the stadium to sell out then they would get no advertising revenue from the wellington region)

Do you know how SKY make there minimal 300% profit on Live sport? Advertising space. They pay nothing for something and get back there money x3 by selling air time advertising. Subscriptions are just numbers they use - SKY didn't lose much in subscribers after losing the EPL(They came out and said that), However they lose money big time in Advertisement. Its why SKY is one of the most profitable company's in the world.

Interesting that people bring up crouds.  From this: http://fiveyearstops.blogspot.com.au/

Well sky surely sells viewesrhip figures to advertisers, as does the Phoenix to their sponsors and the FFA to theirs. Viewership means money.

If you put it on free to air it means the kids who's parents don't have sky can watch and become life long fans, so to students, and those that generally don't think its worth paying $90 a month just to watch the Phoenix because they couldn't give a toss about the rugby and the rest of the content on Sky.

Exactly our metrics are bad (but in no category are they the worst) but are trending up when the rest of the league is trending down. Without the nix performing against the run of play what would the statistics for the A-League look like? Proably in free fall.

That's correct, Its why we need someone like Lightbox sports with there TV partner TVNZ to buy the rights long term - under a agreement with FFA that the Nix stay.

From what has transpired so far, my conclusion is that FFA is prepared to dump us to get another "better advertising puller" to the broadcaster, within the existing 10 team TV rights agreement. In this case, it does not really matter what our "metrics", that we're busily debating, are. They're (FFA) not telling the truth, and are hiding behind "off-field performance" bullshark, whereas we know that argument is hollow. In their (FFA) logic it does not matter that Welnix took no part in FFA - SKY TV negotiations: they needed us then, but they do not need us know, sorry.

However there is a chance of survival for us, in that other small clubs may oppose it if they see it as a "thin edge of the wedge", unless they have already been assured privately by FFA that it is the SKY TV deal that kills the Nix future, not crouds or distance. If so then it is a done deal, just that FFA has not been able to admit that openly, for whatever reason. However, their conspiracy with Sutherland group will not go down well with the Sydney FC bosses, who actually have something to say  - they do not want to lose their market share.

Welnix could even consider legal action on the licence length (five years was assured previously), I suppose, but I doubt they would want to. Money for nothing.