Many nails on the head! Good work to both of you.
They have comms. AR has said nothing as to the sanction (just as the example I used with the punch) Ref just hears Foul Foul Foul and not yellow yellow yellow/red red red after that. The referee is not walking over to the AR to discuss what he has been told is ‘just a foul’ otherwise, they are doing this a couple of times a game. The only time the referee would most likely go over to chat would be if he gets the red call from the AR because that’s a ‘whoa, hold on. I saw nothing/didn’t see it, what the hell did you see?!?’ Some times officials can see ‘something’ but exactly what that ‘something’ is.
VAR reviews everything, so looks at the clip, sees no sanction has been given, and reviews. That’s a fair process because that gives the on field team first right to sanction and get it right which I don’t think is in dispute. They won’t get involved in yellow card incidents (unless its simulation) and are only getting involved in red card incidents which have been given and incorrect or not given at all. This is key.
So now you have heard the on field team, you see/hear no sanction, and have all the time to review from various replays and slo-mos (including real time speed)
Specifically to the footage available to the Lowry tackle that’s out there, everyone sees him play the ball with his left leg so no disputes there. He plays this roughly 2m from the other player. It’s that the slide continues, on a wet surface, and gets his right leg which was behind him, around. At point of contact, if you freeze frame (which is not ideal) what do you see? You see a player horizontal, two foot making contact with the studs to the side of the leg mid calf. Is that a fair summary? If so, then I’ve just described the basic outline for serious foul play. There are considerations (speed, force, brutality, contact point) which also come into it.
As a coaching point you won’t find in law, the general guidelines are if contact is on the ankle/foot or a downward motion, generally yellow. If it’s bottom of the shin pad and above or movement is horizontal or upward, generally red.
When you have this, you have considerations for serious foul play. Coupled with an AR that sees a foul and nothing else and a referee that didn’t see it, (and most people would be accepting of a yellow as has been mentioned) on the back of ‘just a free kick’ yes that’s a clear and obvious error because most peoples reasonable expectation is a yellow card. Over and above that, the contact point specifically give grounds to red card territory.
I mentioned Ronaldo in the Iran game at WC. Remember the VAR reviewed it down for possible red card. The referee saw the footage and decided himself that it did not meet the threshold for red but was strong enough for yellow so gave Ronaldo a yellow. The referee always has final say on sanction. As someone else mentioned to me, if you are getting a review for a challenge in the middle of the field, the subconscious does say ‘well it only gets reviewed if it’s potentially red’ but the referee does make the final call. I can’t/won’t tell you what the VAR said to the referee other than ‘You need to review this’ (which is pretty obvious)