The Top 4 Equation. Objective: Catch the Mariners

Obviously everyone is gutted to have gone down after fighting so bravely in the last minute, regardless of tactics like a 3 man midfield holding off, self-sacrificing trackles, etc. Gutted is good, it means we care. So moving on, here is the equation as I see it:

Team W  D L  PL  PTS 1 Adelaide United FC 8 3  4 15 27 2 Queensland Roar FC 7 5 4 16 26 3 Melbourne Victory FC 8 2 6 16 26 4 Central Coast Mariners FC 6 7 4 17 25 5 Wellington Phoenix FC 6 4 7 17 22 6 Sydney FC 5 5 7 17 20 7 Perth Glory FC 5 4 8 17 19 8 Newcastle Jets FC 3 6 8 17 15

 

The teams below us have all played 17 games as have we, with Sydney 2 points behind and in a slump in form, so as long as we go decently we stay ahead of them. Above, where we need to jump above just one team (given Sydney or Perth don't somehow jump us) Adelaide have 2 games in hand, and Queensland and Melbourne have 1 game in hand on us each, so it is probably out of reach to get up to them. It leaves CCM 3 points above us as the team we need to gain 4 points on given our poor goal differential.

 

Here is their run-in:

 

Perth            (7th)     L-D-W-D-W- L    (8pts)       (home)   31/12

Queensland  (2nd)    L-W-D- D-W-W   (10pts)     (home)   10/01

Melbourne     (3rd)    W-W-L-L-L-W      (9pts)       (away)   16/01

Adelaide         (1st)    L-L-W-D-W-W      (10pts)    (home)   25/01 

And ours:

Newcastle    (8th)      L-D-L-L-W-D       (5pts)       (home)    04/01

Sydney         (6th)      L-D-W-L-L-L        (4pts)      (away)    11/01

Adelaide        (1st)      L-L-W-D-W-W     (10pts)     (home)    18/01

Melbourne      (3rd)     W-W-L-L-L-W      (9pts)     (away)    23/01

 

 

We have a very similar run in with Perth and Newcastle first up the bottom two teams who have beaten some of the best in recent weeks. They play Queensland while we play Sydney, here we  need to pick up some points. Then we both play Melbourne at home and Adelaide away in the final two games.

 

So to gain four points, if they get 2 wins and 2 draws we need 4 wins. Basically we need to match 2 of their results and then for the other 2, if they draw we need to win 2, or if they lose 2 we need to win and draw. If we get 6 points against Newcastle and Sydney, and they only draw or lose against Perth and Queensland who are in much better form, that will be 4-6 points gained. Then we only need to match their results vs highflying Adelaide and Melbourne.

 

Needless to say the league is amazingly even, every team is fighting for something and position in table doesn't necessarily reflect current form.

 

I think CCM have a win and a draw in them, which would mean we need 3 wins or 2 wins and 2 draws. It will come down to the last game for me.

 

Insert your predictions of the above situation eventuating here...

 

More good news out of that game from the same article, is they lose both strikers for the tricky game against Perth this weekend. A loss and a spanking of the Jets at the Ring of Fire later and we are equal on points, with the potential they could be docked some when the decision comes on Friday, presumably 3?

It's a shame that the Queensland-Central Coast match is next up for them. It's a difficult one to know who to want. If Queensland lose and we beat Sydney, we're 4th. But as you say, CCM have the more difficult run-in.

the equation is quite simple really - we cannot lose! We must beat Sydney, and get at least a draw with Melboune and Adelaide, giving us  a further 5 points finishin on 30. This might - with luck see us walk into 4th. A win against Melbourne would be awesome giving us 7 points from the final 3 games which would see us on 32.

Here is the adjusted situation one more round on with 3 (for us) to play: