All Whites' Dead End Road To Russia 2018

Wasn't the Mexico game mid week over there and a Friday or Satdy here?

Wednesday night over there (Thursday morning here), and Wednesday night here.

Yes, it was a Wednesday - I managed to justify it as a Professional Development event to get time off work!! :)

I'd still go Hudson over Herbert... at least we have looked to play "at times".

I think we are generally moving in the right direction, some calls / decisions are odd, but overall, I'd give him a 6.5 out of ten.

He's unearthed some new talent (Themi etc)

We've had some encouraging results

He's organised and well planned

Themi isn't a great example. In spite of being one of our better players, the guy didn't even get on the pitch at the Confed. But, yes, he has unearthed some talent, not least Marinovich.

Didn't Wynton say Ricki should take Marinovic to the WC 2010? And Ricki knew about Themi too, didn't he?

I think you can give Hudson credit for the Ingham twins (or was that Paul Holmes?), and Henry Cameron......Benji vdB.....Liam Graham perhaps....the rest were already in the system weren't they? (Lewis, Wynne, Colvey, Dyer etc) Or am I just a Debbie Downer? (thanks, Courteney Barnett).

Didn't Henry Cameron come on board because Hudson went on the british radio asking for anyone with connections to NZ and knows how to kick around the ball to get in touch?

Graham in the system too, as a youth international..

Unearthing talent not the big one - backing it and seeing it come off is.

So I'd say Lewis and Marinovic can be considered wins and everything else, not so much

is there a Japan match on the radar?

It would seem Japan is lined up as the sole match in October, assuming both them and NZ do their jobs in September. Kalezic said it's on at dawn the other day, but NZF quick to clarify it's not locked in yet.

Not a big fan of Tommy Smith but he will definitely be missed.

Smith ruled out, Musa called in

DETERMINING FIFTH PLACE IN SOUTH AMERICA:

Those crucial South American qualifiers are on beIN 2 and ESPN 2 starting Friday September 1:

Five games next Friday on TV:

Mid-day: South American qualifying beIN 2

Afternoon: South American qualifying beIN 2

Evening 7 pm: All Whites vs. Solomons 1st leg qualifier Sky Sport 3

(2nd leg: Tuesday 5th 7.30 pm Sky Sport 4)

Saturday, Sunday: South American qualifying replays beIN 2 and ESPN 2

Next round Wednesday September 6 NZT beIN 2 and ESPN 2 - five games.

Another round  on October 6 NZT and the final round on October 11 NZT

Current table (after 14 games played of 18)

1. Brazil              33 pts QUAL.

2. Colombia        24 pts

3. Uruguay          23 pts

4. Chile                 23 pts

5. Argentina         22 pts

6. Ecuador            20 pts

7. Peru                  18 pts 

8. Paraguay          18 pts

9. Bolivia                10 pts  ELIM.

10. Venezuela         6 pts   ELIM. 

So the best case scenario would be Peru or Ecuador getting 5th and avoiding Argentina and the other top4? What are the chances Big Pete?

ooh too much to hope for. we don't have that kind of luck

In my view Peru are a smokey for that 5th spot. They play Educador and Bolivia this window. My Peruvian ex GF will be hoping so.

But Christ AWs will still be massive outsiders whoever is the 5th placed side.

This website does predictions for international football. This is what they think. https://www.weglobalfootball.com

Peru are very unlikely. The only reason they're in it is because they were awarded a 3-0 win over Bolivia after the latter fielded an ineligible player. They'd originally lost that game 2-0. Making up 4 more points across 4 games is going to be very hard for them, especially as their talent-base is smaller than the rest of the teams they'll be competing with for that spot.

Ecuador are a possibility, but also an unlikely one. They have a very tough run in - away to Brazil and Chile, and home to Argentina in the last round (and in the game that the Argies will likely need something out of). Don't think they can do it.

The other outside possibilities are Paraguay (same amount of points as Peru, but worse goal difference), and Colombia (could potentially slide down). Again, for Paraguay, it's gonna be a hard ask to make up the points (especially considering that with their GD, they effectively have to make up 5 points). Colombia still has to play Brazil (but at home), but with their remaining games being Venezuela and Peru away, and Paraguay at home, they should be able to pick up enough points not to slide down all the way to 5th.

Which basically leaves us with what 2B has posted - the overwhelming probability is that the 5th placed team will be one out of Argentina, Chile, or Uruguay. Something quite extraordinary would have to happen for it not to be one of those three.

For astute analysis of the likely outcome see 2ndBest and El Grapadura's posts above:

"The overwhelming probability is that the 5th placed team will be one out of Argentina, Chile, or Uruguay. Something quite extraordinary would have to happen for it not to be one of those three."

And that will be better financially of course for NZ Football, especially if it's Argentina.

Peru or Ecuador, or Paraguay, just wouldn't generate the same TV revenue. Wasn't it $6 million last time from the two Mexico games?

Whoever finishes fifth we will struggle against but it will be entertaining and a huge event for the home leg - biggest qualifying game in our history, more prestigious opponents than Bahrain or Mexico (or China going back to the 1982 play-off in Singapore). 

That being said, it feels like a real shame to come up against a team, Argentina, that we know we ave 0% chances of beating.

If it were one of the lesser SA teams, we'd still know it would be an uphill battle but one we could get into with some hope.

I personally feel a play-off against Argentina would fail to excite the masses and actually only damage the AWs reputation as the likely outcome is a good ol' fashioned pasting from them.

Better to get smashed by Argentina than Ecuador.

If we're looking at it from a PR view.

Yeah but didn't NZF get $10M for actually qualifying for 2010 WC, from FIFA?

Also my understanding is that the $6M from the 2 Mexican games, came from TV money NZF negotiated with some Mexican TV channels. No guarantee that sort of money will be paid by any South American TV networks. Many of the South American economies are currently very weak (big overall reliance on mining/resources). Still if anything the Mayweather/Macgregor fight ($300M purse?!) showed that when pay TV channels get involved who knows what amount of money can be flushed out.

Personally I want to see the AWs at the 2018 WC (long shot I know), and that means playing the weakest SA team possible. I'd rather Messi & Co didn't get to visit Wellington. Come on Peru!

You misspelt Honiara.

From We Global Football, it rates New Zealand a 15.10% chance of making the World Cup. It has Uruguay coming 5th in CONMEBOL and then winning the play off so rated at 89.94%. Funny enough though it does have Chile finishing 4th yet rated lower in likely to go to World Cup than Uruguay at 84.10%

In our game against Solomons "We give New Zealand about an 86% chance and Solomon Islands a 14% chance of making it through."

http://www.weglobalfootball.com/2016/10/04/world-c...

I'd take Uruguay over the sides currently in top 5 CONMEBOL spots. Esp if Reid could provoke Suarez to bite him and get sent off, or some such other dreamland scenario.

Regarding the TV money, I'm sure there would be money from international rights for Europe, Asia, Africa, North America as well as the whole of South America. And that means Argentina, Chile or Uruguay would provide a decent return, not Peru or Ecuador.

So that would provide some consolation if it did turn out to be say Argentina in November.

(If it turns out to be the Solomons vs. Argentina, it would double the Solomons' GDP for 2017)

Realistically we would struggle to qualify against the already eliminated sides Venezuela and Bolivia, let alone the fifth placed team.

But I agree, it's the chance of qualifying, albeit slim, that has to excite us.

And it adds so much interest in following the South American qualifiers this week and next and then in October.

Whoever our opponents will be come November, assuming we get past the Solomons, is completely out of our hands anyway.

NZ played Venezuela in a friendly under Ricki in March 2007 away and were tanked 5-0. (Venezuela were ranked 74th then)

The All Whites were thrashed 4-0 by Costa Rica a few days before.

Both opponents were weaker than they are now back then in my opinion.

And you have to consider that our defence was improved a lot in the next couple of years with Lochhead the only member of the backline retained come the play-off vs. Bahrain in 2009. 

Match report for Venezuela game:

http://www.nzfootball.co.nz/venezuela-5-0-new-zeal...

Ricki: “I don’t think we got as exposed as much as we did against Costa Rica but when you’ve got players of that [Venezuela’s] technical ability and you lose concentration, there’s only one outcome and that’s getting punished…and we were.”

Maracaibo, Venezuela
March 28, 2007

Venezuela 5 (Ricardo Paez 8, Fernando De Ornelas 31, 49; Fedor Nicolas 86, own goal 90+)
New Zealand 0
Halftime: 2-0

New Zealand: Mark Paston, Noah Hickey, Steven Old, Danny Hay, Tony Lochhead (Jarrod Smith 59), David Mulligan, Ivan Vicelich, Andy Barron, Leo Bertos (Jeremy Brockie 59), Shane Smeltz, Chris James.
Substitutes not used: James Bannatyne, Che Bunce, Kris Bouckenooghe, Jeremy Christie, Tim Brown.

Venezuela: Renny Vega (Rafael Dudamel 46), Ruben Yori (Roberto Rosales 46), Grendy Perozo (Julio Machado 73), Juan Fuenmayor, Luis Vallenilla (Renier Rodriguez 74), Pedro Fernandez (Alain Giroletti 67), Jesus Meza (Javier Villafraz 46), Ricardo Paez, Juan Arango, Gianacarlo Maldonado, Fernando De Ornelas (Ruberth Morgan 61).

Cautions: Vicelich 38, Fuenmayor 44
Crowd: 12,000

Too much fat.  The Uruguayans probably watching their BMIs

So as it stands there are 3 matches left for each of our potential opponents in South America? If so there are only 5 points between 8th placed Ecuador (20pts) and 2nd placed Colombia (25 pts). Should be a few more fascinating twists and turns coming up.

Ecuador – Peru (h) Chile (a) Argentina (h)
Argentina – Venezuela (h) Peru (h) Ecuador (a)
Chile – Bolivia (a) Ecuador (h) Brazil (a)
Colombia – Brazil (h) Paraguay (h) Peru (a)
Uruguay – Paraguay (a) Venezuela (a) Bolivia (h)
Peru - Ecuador (a) Argentina (a) Colombia (h) 
Paraguay - Uruguay (h) Colombia (a) Venezuela (h)

Argentina have two very winnable home games. *Should* be enough to get to at least 4th.

Chile have Bolivia away which is very difficult in the altitude and then Brazil away. 

Weglobalfootball.com has 31.2% chance Chile play us. 15.1% Argentina, 11.8% Uruguay, 11.2% Ecuador, 10.5% Paraguay, 10.0% Peru and 10.0% Colombia. 

Phoenix are at home on Sunday the 12th Nov , unless this is one of the games they are looking at moving(?).

I would guess Friday the 10th is the likely date for the game, but how do we know the first leg will be  NZ anyway? I could find nothing at all on the NZ Football useless website to help us in planning.

It was announced a while ago by FIFA that the first leg would be in Oceania

My personal preference would be (in order)

Ecuador

Peru

Paraguay

Uruguay

Colombia

Chile 
Argentina

mine would be pretty much the reverse of that list

For travel related reasons, I would like Argentina or Chile. It's bloody expensive to get to Colombia.

Is there any reason why the Phoenix game on the Sunday would be moved?

I assume he means if it's being looked at as a second potential game in Auckland.