All Whites' Dead End Road To Russia 2018

yeah the Phoenix have said 10 games minimum in Wellington and there are 12 scheduled at the moment!

Also, in terms of getting the chance to see some superstars in action, Peru and Paraguay offer nobody, and of the Ecuador squad only Antonio Valencia is vaguely marketable. Uruguay, Colombia, Chile and Argentina are stacked with world class attacking players.

I don't know about you guys, but I have been spewing for months when we were knocked out by Mexico. The first leg especially, I managed to make it to the pub after my grandma passed away that day (I was in Italy on holiday) and managed to drag a couple of friends to watch that terrible performance which basically gave us no chance of redemption. All these months hoping to qualify just gone in over half an hour - it was pretty bloody shark.

I would murder and pillage to get the weakest possible team in the playoff. I don't want to watch another WC go by without feeling a real connection to it.

I know even the likes of Peru and Ecuador would have a huge advantage against us - heck I think we could easily lose against Venezuela who only managed one win in 15 games - but I just don't see the point in playing the likes of Argentina. 

Seeing as we're boned anyway we chase the biggest financial return and that is having the names people will pay to see.

Plus after 2018 and 2022 the World Cups have automatic spot for OFC anyway.

For the time being, anyway.

As HN said, we get more money from playing a big team. 

And I suspect that after half an hour against the 5th best team in South America our odds of getting to the WC will be about the same as they were after half an hour against Mexico. 

Yeah agree with you. Fully acknowledge that beating 5th South American team over 2 legs is a massive long shot. I watched Peru v Bolivia game on the weekend. I didn't know one player but the speed of pass, movement, skill .............even these teams (and neither are likely to finish 5th) would be big favourites against AWs.

However I want to see AWs at the World Cup. Any other thoughts to me are defeatist - an attitude of we are shark and we always will be. Hate that. Beating Bahrain and going WC2010 was awesome, losing to Mexico was sharke (esp nature of it).

I've watched Lionel on TV enough, to know that he is a genuis. If I want to watch him live I'll fly to Europe, and buy a ticket to Nou Camp. Anyway thankfully Argentina, won't finish 5th (they may even lie 2nd after Wednesday). 

I'd much rather -

1. We somehow miraculously win playoff series and qualify. Football is littered with upsets. Or

2. Play with heart, fight tooth & nail and lose honorably by a few goals to someone like Paraguay 

After Mexico debacle AWs were in doldrums for at least 18 months (hardly played a game). All that TV money didn't help us at all get AWs any meaningful matches. Getting hammered by the Mexicans just meant the average ill informed rugby head/media jock could spout how "hopeless NZ is at soccer".

Yeah sure highly unlikely we will qualify, but I'll be wishing AWs all the best in their endeavours to do so (even Tommy Smith).

Steve Deane at the Newsroom site weighs in: 

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/@sportsroom/2017/09/04/...

The reality for we Kiwis is that the fate of our world cup qualifying campaign was decided in a boardroom in Geneva. We’re no chance of beating South American opposition home and away. We’d struggle against a Venezuelan team consisting entirely of Miss Universes. When Fifa handed us a playoff against the fifth best Conmebol team, they really just handed South America a fifth sport in the Cup.

I also don't think it's an attitude of we shark and will always be shark. I don't know where the "we will always be shark" of that has come from.

But let's be realistic here. There's nothing in our performances post-2010 to suggest we could beat a team like this, in meaningful games, let alone beat them over 180+ minutes of football. They will have played 17 competitive games to get here, against better opposition than us, not to mention the Copa America as well. With have some EPL quality at either end but our midfield is relatively weak and our wingbacks even more so. Being at home first is a disadvantage because even if we win by a goal or draw through some miracle we then have to go into a hostile environment to hold onto a lead against a superior team with nothing to lose. Yeah upsets happen but IMO if you want to dream about an upset as unlikely as us beating any of those teams it may as well be Argentina because the likelihood of beating any of them is so slim that it doesn't really matter which one we are talking about. An upset of that magnitude would be such a freak occurrence anyway.

Nah disagree. To increase chances of winning logic, says you want to play "weakest" Sth American team you can. That team is not Argentina. Paraguay for example we would still be huge underdogs, but we (incl players) would still give us an outside chance. If was the Argies, the AWs players would be 90% beaten before even took the field knowing L Messi was in other team.

Also I don't buy this we have looked unconvincing since 2010, so we have no chance, talk. Winston Reid's presence is massive. Huge. How many AWs games has he played since 2010. Less than ten?? 

There was a very noticeable lift in performance & confidence with the two USA tour games when he played. He isn't Jesus Christ reincarnated, but if anyone can sprinkle some miracle dust he can. With him, AWs will get a huge legup, and some chance (however slim) - without him, no chance. Nada

I didn't say we have looked unconvincing, although I think for 80-90% of that time we have, but I was meaning that we haven't looked good enough to get a result over two legs against the 5th best team in South America (whoever that is). Those two North American games were a loss and a draw in friendlies against effectively second string sides. Competitive games against motivated opposition who are probably better than the US or Mexico anyway are a whole different kettle of fish.

In 2005 Australia, with a much better squad than ours is currently and with the home advantage for the second leg managed to get through only on penalties vs Uruguay. Last WC South America's 6th best team beat their playoff opponent because Brazil were automatic qualifiers as hosts. In these qualifiers so far Paraguay have beaten Chile twice, Argentina once, and drawn with Brazil. Yeah we have an outside chance against them but a very, very outside one. By definition whoever finishes 5th is better than 5 of the CONMEBOL teams over the last couple of years. Whichever team it is would be red hot favourites to beat us. We might have a better chance against Paraguay than Argentina but IMO it's the difference between 1 in 40 odds and. 1 in 50. The slightly greater chance of qualifying isn't enough to make me prefer to play them.

If we were playing off against AFC or CONCACAF I would care much more about us meeting the weakest possible opponent but against CONMEBOL I don't think it makes enough of a difference for me to bother. Beating whoever we end up facing over two legs would be the biggest results we ever got I would say. Drawing with Italy when they were defending word champs was huge but it was one game on neutral territory, this is two games and the away leg will be brutal.

I think we have to be a bit more positive.  There is too much damn coaching if you ask me, and not enough recognising that its 11 v 11.

Clearly the kids will be fit if Hudson is in charge.

A full strength NZ side is not a bad side at all, we have home advantage (hopefully in Wellington), the oppo have a long way to come and will be under huge pressure potentially from their press and country.

El Monumental is not the Maracana and we can help make Westpac not very welcoming either (!) Tbh, having seen Mexico, I dont want to play Argentina, and suspect Ecuador or Peru would be a different proposition.

Get Ryan Nelsen along to show them that we can compete with anyone on our day, all we need to do is defend well, nick a goal, get them frustrated, down to ten men.....

Look as always CT, you make some good points, and I think everyone agrees chances of AWs winning this two legged playoff are wafer slim. However by playing Argentina they become even slimmer to non existent, as opposed to playing say Paraguay.

If it’s the Argies (and thankfully I don’t seeing it being them), the first leg in Wellington will have the feel of a Messi exhibition match, with the AWs as bit part players in the great Lionel show. Personally I don’t want that. I want an all stakes/knife edge match where it at least feels like we have a chance (however misplaced), in the first leg – and it’s all to play for. It’s now 8 years since the Bahrain game, the last high tension AWs match in NZ. Sorry to me that is shark house. Way too long. Even the Island nations get the feeling of exciting all stakes games, when they play each other in the Oceania group games.

You are dead right the away leg game will be brutal, real backs to the wall stuff for large periods. Wave after wave of attacks, coming AWs way, and huge dollops of luck will be needed to have any chance. And yes in 2005 the Socceroos only won on pens, in the equivalent playoff series verus Uruguay and they had probably 6-8 EPL or equivalent level players. We have two.

Also agree would be the biggest achievement ever by AWs if they can miraculously pull it off, so get behind them and Peru I say!

''Argentina gripped by fear as superstars fall short''

'It can't happen can it? The idea of a World Cup without Argentina is so preposterous as to be unthinkable. ..... Were they to remain as they are, marooned from automatic qualification in 5th place, they would go through the ignominy of a play-off against New Zealand. And given the international form of Burnley's Chris Wood - who scored a hat-trick in his last outing for the Kiwis - nothing is guaranteed....' etc.

Jim White writing in today's Daily Telegraph. Not often Kiwi football gets a mention in the British press.

As he says, nothing is guaranteed. I'm picking Moses Dyer to score the winner that gets us there, lol.

Their under-20's struggled in Wellington....

Just as an aside, I wonder why South America has an 18 game qualifying campaign when they could just have two pools of five teams with the top two in each pool automatically qualifying. That way they'd only have to play 8 games. Seems weird.

Then they only play 8 competitive games outside of big tournaments in a 3-year period. Remember that they don't have to qualify for their continental championship the way teams have to in Europe, Africa, and Asia.

The Top 5 table for South America is chaos - Chile lost again and are 5th atm

Venzuela and Argies somehow locked up at 0-0 at half-time, despite the game more resembling a half-court match.

Venezuelan keeper is a superstar in the making (if not already).

Argentina 0-1 Venezuela at 51 minutes and then Argentina had a quick reply 1-1. CONMEBOL qualifiers are crazy, imagine us being in this confederation with regular gametime against top opposition and steady improvement.

peru, argentina, chile, paraguay or equador take you pick 

Peru. 

10th.

Peru - 15th in the world - scarier than they sound

I'II have a serving of Paraguay thanks - followed by a trip to Russia 

Unfortunately for the Paraguayans they are just too inconsistent. Winning away 3-0 against twice Suid American champions Chile, and then losing 1-2 home to Uruguay. South America qualifying is brut-al

Playoff spot now likely to be one of Peru, Chile or Argentina.

The Argies drew 1-1 with bottom place Venezula and Chile lost to Bolivia. So Argentina are still 5th and now Chile are 6th. Amazing tight still with only 4 points seperating 2nd from 6th.

I would love us to playoff against Argentina or Chile. We are screwed anyway so why not a game against a super premium side. Messi at the Cake tin would be fantastic. I would imagine there would be plenty of South American fans come over as well.

The reality is this could be our last big big football game in NZ for the AW's. Soon we will get direct entry to the WC. So there will no longer be the prospect of another huge meaningful WC playoff game. Never again will we see scenes like the qualifiers for the 1982 WC, or the Bahrain home game or even the big game against Mexico. Instead it will be playoffs against the likes of the mighty Solomon islands every four years.

I must admit casting an envious eye over the latest round of exciting WC qualifying matches around the globe. In particular some of the Asian qualifiers have been cracking.....the Syrians drawing with Iran to make the playoffs, the aussies not doing enough against Thailand. I would swap direct WC qualification for a piece of that sort of action.

Instead we are in boring Oceania banging in 8 goals in a playoff that failed to ignite the fans or media, no TV deals, no packed stadiums....we are now stuck in Oceania....we are shackled to a corpse!!!!!!!

underestimate ofc at yr peril going forward

What could realistically OFC do to us?

I know this has been talked about time and time again, but as much as I love the island teams and think Oceania would fold without us, I'd still like us to join Asia. Playing at the WC every four years will be great for experience and exposure (more eligible players would declare for us surely), but at the end of the day it's 3 games every four years and let's be realistic, as much as the $ will help, it's not going to do much to make us a force to be reckoned with.  We need regular and meaningful games to improve and be competitive.

Also envious of all these top quality, high tension qualifying games happening around the world, that we can just watch from afar. Yes direct OFC qualification to future World Cups, will mean the end of any meaningful exciting, get the pulse racing AWs games in NZ - and that's sad.

Our squad is improving - at least in terms of the competitions they are playing in. Our starting 11 will consist of maybe two starting NZ based players, otherwise everyone else is in Europe of USA. I can't recall another time when that was the case?

I thinks with Musa, Themi, Thomsa, Tuiloma, McG, Lewis there is a competitive trio within it... not world class, but one that can at least fight. And if Reid / Wood and Smith stay fit, we may have enough at either end to keep a clean or near clean sheet and the ability to get a goal or two.

I'm feeling much better than I did a year ago... don't know why, just am.

Talk about ditching Oceania for Asia always comes up, and it makes a lot of sense for us. But Oceania would just collapse without us. My feeling is that Asia should be cut in two, West Asia containing the likes of Iran, Saudis, India, maybe even China, and East Asia, with Japan, the Koreas, Aussie, Indonesia, Thailand us etc and the island nations.

Cos they freakn love playing and watching football?

Any team that comes 5th will have lost games  and so be beatable, but will still be an awesome side. It would be a huge coup to get Messi/Sanchez/Rodriguez to NZ. Doesn't mean they'd come necessarily.

I think Thomas, Wood and Reid can compete at that level.

I like Hudson's motivation, because the only way we win is for some players to emerge as having that class and Bill Tuiloma and Clayton Lewis are two players who might be able to do that. Who have the potential to be big game players.

Then we'd need the absolute best from Boxy, WeeMa and Themi.I see Dura and Tommy Smith as kind of spent forces at this level. They are too slow for Conenbol.

Our wingbacks are a huge worry. And Marco and Kosta are wildcards, but haven't shown is the goods in an All White shirt. I don't think Patterson or Dyer should be near the final squad.

Ultimately we shouldn't have the talent or the team to defeat a 5th place qualifier. We seem to want to play them at their own game. Yet we have enough talent not to write us off.

Musa I haven't seen, but definitely had potential at the Mix and sounds like he's really put in a lot of work and time 

If we are playing Argentina at the Cake Tin I would expect Messi to stay back for the home leg only, if at all. There is very little room for romantic notions in the brutal business that is professional football.

They (Argentina, Chile or Peru are kinda all in the same frame) would simply send a Team B here to get a minor win, even 2-1 will do, or even a draw. I do not think they would see any value in subjecting quality players to rigours of long-distance travel given such ridiculously short turnaround.   They would want to ensure the result is beyond any doubt in their home leg. In other words, they would do what we did with the Solomons.

Australia qualified only once when playing South American opponents, and that was achieved by not getting thrashed in Montevideo in 2006 WC qualifiers. They also learned the lessons from the 2002 qualifiers: after the away leg, they flew home direct in a charter Qantas plane with lie-down beds, straight from Estadio Centenario, while the Charruas flew to Sydney economy class with an unscheduled stopover and got to Sydney buggered. Good money put into the playoffs clearly helped.  It still took a penalty shootout for the Socceroos to get through.

would agree with that if the 1st leg was in South America, but it's here so whoever it will be will be wanting to put the game to bed early and would send their strongest XI - given that only 3 of Argentina's team are actually based in Argentina, the rest in Europe (except 1 in Mexico which is still an 8-9 hour flight away), and only 9 of Chile's current is based in Chile, the players aren't going to have a big problem with long distance travel (and they'll go 1st class)

Yeah could see that happening, but is also a risky strategy. 

Socceroos had 75% possession last night against Thailand at home, yet only just squeaked out a 2-1 win late. Sure Australia don't have attacking class of say a Chile or Argentina, and they were unlucky not to score more goals (hit woodwork 3 times) . But football is littered with stories of one team parking the bus (aka AWs in South America), and through shear good luck & skill, eking out a narrow loss/draw/win.

I think more likely big name South American players will be at the Cake Tin, aiming for the comfortable win, and then hoping to be rested for return game at home. A World Cup is a big event even for the likes of Messi & Sanchez - they don't want to be sitting at home next year, watching the big show in Russia on TV.