Done right, Auckland would get 15+ to most games imo.
Regarding talent.... there certainly is a lot more coming through so I think we would be able to support more than one team with domestic players.
I personally would love to see people like Reid and Wood get involved in an Auckland bid, both would be at the tail end of their careers, they could come as marquee player coaches... he'll even part owners... i'm just getting cauth up in have a derby dream!!
I just can't see a scenario where Auckland gets 15k+ most games. The Blues don't get that many and they're playing the country's number one sport in the top professional competition in the world. The Warriors get about that many but they have a natural geographic catchment zone in South Auckland where league is really popular, and again they're playing in the top competition for their sport. The previous knights/kingz experiences were way less than that and although a lot has changed since then I don't think it's changed enough to get crowds in the 15k zone.
I think there is a chance of crowds in the 12-15K range. Provided -
Team had a big name Kiwi player, eg Wood, Reid, Thomas, Rojas, Singh (unlikely)
Team was reasonably successful, basically not sharkhouse like Knights were
Venue Eden Park. Doloras is right Auckland's public transport has improved immeasurably since Knights folded, but Eden Park has to be the venue. Kingsland has also massively gentrified in that time, with plenty of pubs to soak in the atmosphere pre & post match.
Not too many late Sunday games
Formation of fan group along lines of YF
Smart planning tapping into local football clubs. Whether that's having transport linkages (buses) direct to carparks at some of the larger outlying clubs or whatever. Esp for the family friendly kickoffs, when you should be targeting as many kids as possible. I remember ES getting in what seemed about a 1K of their juniors over to Albany for Handy Prem final. Some clever stuff like that.
A biggest name signing from China/Korea would also be smart to tap into large Asian communities in Auckland.
I don't follow league but understand the Warriors have a few family friendly Sunday afternoon kickoffs, which would help their crowd numbers. Also helps that the local league fans, are familiar with all the Aussie league teams (many of whom have a few Kiwis playing for them as well), and yeah it's the world's premier league comp with lots of big name stars from State of Origin etc.
Went to every Blues home game I was in town for, apart from the last one. They were all 7.30pm kickoffs. The last one was a wet miserable Friday match, against Bulls from South Africa. A team who's players I don't know, and when the Blues season had yet again basically disintegrated. Not an attractive sell for Blues management. Fair weather fan, like many here when the chance of playoff football had virtually disappeared and the weather was crap.
A summer of A League with games at Eden Park, will be popular with many casual Auckland sports fans. Lets have a few beers down at Kingsland, head to the stadium to bask in the late summer sun, and boo some Australians.
22K in Feb may have been a one off, but 12-15K regularly is possible, if all done right.
I think what Roar is a pretty reasonable comparison. Popn around the same, football again competing against league and rugby for coverage. Suncorp about similar walking distance from the CBD as Eden Park, train station & bars (Caxton St) nearby. Roarcelona's glory days are long since over. They averaged 9,600 last season when they had a pretty awful time of it. They also don't have a derby. I'd expect a novelty Auckland side to do better than that initially, helped by a Nix derby game or two.
I think even if all that went right you wouldn't get a 15k average. The comparison with Brisbane doesn't work because Aussies just get behind their sports teams more. Both the Brisbane NRL and AFL teams average over 20k, as does their Big Bash team. The super rugby team gets about 9k but rugby union is definitely a minority sport there. Three teams in a city getting over 20k per game. Auckland has none.
I lived in both cities. The best Aussie city comparison to Auckland in a sporting context, would be Brisbane.
The two football codes basically operate in reverse, between the two cities. League and Broncos are by far the dominant code in Brisvegas. But unlike rugby's Blues (dominant code in Auckland), the Broncos are generally one of the better sides, so that helps immeasurably to keep them well supported. They have averaged crowds of 30k-36k in last 13 years, Wiki says. League is also aided in QLD, by the Origin series, and general hatred of any team from NSW to keep the interest high. The local Courier-Mail paper (tabloid trash) does a great job of finding a pantomine villain to pretty much despise in any Sydney NRL side venturing north to Suncorp. Meanwhile when the Reds host the Sharks from South Africa, only the most diehard union fan gives a toss.
If rugby union is a minority sport in SE QLD so is AFL. When Rugby's Reds (2011) & AFL's Lions (200-2003) have both won their various competitions, their average crowds swelled. Both codes had a few years of averaging 30k plus, post winning championships. Now average Reds crowds are around 15k, and Lions 18k.
Cash rich AFL has invested millions in Aussie Rules in QLD, plus now provided the 'Q Clash' derby with a new side onto the Gold Coast (Suns) a few years back. Yet even with all that cash, and a huge investment in targeting kids especially the code hasn't gained much ground on league. QLDers are a pretty parochial bunch. Also the Lions and Suns both now tend to be down the bottom of the AFL ladder. From memory the AFL also gives the Lions a number of family friendly Sat/Sun afternoon kickoffs. The AFL is the best run football code in Aussie, and they don't like failure. They are prepared to prop up struggling clubs in need, esp in NSW/QLD - but league will always be numero uno in those 2 states.
I'd call the BBBL gimmicky entertainment as much as a sporting comp. But the lustre has faded bigtime. Brisbane Heat crowds averaged 323k in 2017/2018, but for 2018/2019 that fell to 22k, a 32% drop.
So you have 2 teams in Brisbane averaging 20k crowds, one of those just coming off a 32% drop in numbers.
It's a lazy assumption to just say Aussies support sport better than Kiwis. They can be equally fair weather. In a country where in the winter (esp in QLD), the weather can be so much nicer to sit a stadium and watch your team. In comparison when visiting Welly in June, I've headed down the gangway at Westpac for a Hurricanes game into a biting wet Southerly, looked at me amigos said fudge this, all turned around & headed to a nice warm pub.
So back on topic. Could a new Auckland A League team (a competition played over the spectator friendly warmer months of NZ), based at Eden Park (the best located venue in town), and not being total sharkhouse in it's first few seasons - average crowds of 12-15k? Possibly. Possibly not.
No one will know for sure, until when/if Jaffa FC emerges.
