A League title tracker: Come on Phoenix!
What a fantasic well written article.
We all need to fund the niche cache. Even if its $5 a year. Quality articles.
35 - Wellington Phoenix have allowed their opposition 35 big scoring chances this A-League Men season - fewer than any other team. Stifle. https://t.co/h0x3bM45W3 pic.twitter.com/wnDWBniHbC
— OptaJason (@OptaJason) March 5, 2024
35 - Wellington Phoenix have allowed their opposition 35 big scoring chances this A-League Men season - fewer than any other team. Stifle. https://t.co/h0x3bM45W3 pic.twitter.com/wnDWBniHbC
— OptaJason (@OptaJason) March 5, 2024
best defence in the league, and where do we sit?
I wanted to understand how many points the Phoenix might need to win the league this year.
My prior was that there would be a relationship between how spread out the final points table was, and the number of points the league winners had each season.
I did two basic linear regressions:
1) Standard Deviation of the Top 6 points per game (PPG) on the Premiers PPG (one data point per season)
2) standard deviation of the full league PPG on the premiers PPG
Used PPG as the number of teams/games per season varied since 2005.
The conclusion, the Phoenix might need about 53 points to win the league.
My prior was that there would be a relationship between how spread out the final points table was, and the number of points the league winners had each season.
I did two basic linear regressions:
1) Standard Deviation of the Top 6 points per game (PPG) on the Premiers PPG (one data point per season)
2) standard deviation of the full league PPG on the premiers PPG
Used PPG as the number of teams/games per season varied since 2005.
The conclusion, the Phoenix might need about 53 points to win the league.
That is very good work.
I wanted to understand how many points the Phoenix might need to win the league this year.
My prior was that there would be a relationship between how spread out the final points table was, and the number of points the league winners had each season.
I did two basic linear regressions:
1) Standard Deviation of the Top 6 points per game (PPG) on the Premiers PPG (one data point per season)
2) standard deviation of the full league PPG on the premiers PPG
Used PPG as the number of teams/games per season varied since 2005.
The conclusion, the Phoenix might need about 53 points to win the league.
My prior was that there would be a relationship between how spread out the final points table was, and the number of points the league winners had each season.
I did two basic linear regressions:
1) Standard Deviation of the Top 6 points per game (PPG) on the Premiers PPG (one data point per season)
2) standard deviation of the full league PPG on the premiers PPG
Used PPG as the number of teams/games per season varied since 2005.
The conclusion, the Phoenix might need about 53 points to win the league.
So according to the data, 4W 1D 2L, or 3W 4D 0L out of our last 7 games should win it?
That scares me.
I wanted to understand how many points the Phoenix might need to win the league this year.
My prior was that there would be a relationship between how spread out the final points table was, and the number of points the league winners had each season.
I did two basic linear regressions:
1) Standard Deviation of the Top 6 points per game (PPG) on the Premiers PPG (one data point per season)
2) standard deviation of the full league PPG on the premiers PPG
Used PPG as the number of teams/games per season varied since 2005.
The conclusion, the Phoenix might need about 53 points to win the league.
My prior was that there would be a relationship between how spread out the final points table was, and the number of points the league winners had each season.
I did two basic linear regressions:
1) Standard Deviation of the Top 6 points per game (PPG) on the Premiers PPG (one data point per season)
2) standard deviation of the full league PPG on the premiers PPG
Used PPG as the number of teams/games per season varied since 2005.
The conclusion, the Phoenix might need about 53 points to win the league.
Nice analysis, I've been playing round with a monte carlo simulation for the remainder of the season and our numbers agree.
After 25,000 simulations, the average points required for first place was 52.4.
From the table below, 51 points was enough to finish first in 38.55% of simulations while if you are up around 57/58 points its almost guarenteed
Nix finish first in 72% of sims, with CCM making up the bulk of the remainder
CCM's win last night in the AFC Cup is pretty helpful. Looking set to play another 2 legged game on 16 and 23 of April which will likely include a trip to Kyrgyzstan.
I reckon the Mariners come mid April will be focusing on that 2 legged playoff, more than the ALM. They win that playoff they make the AFC Cup Final (looks like will be in Lebanon or Oman). Losing finalist $USD750K, winner $USD1.5M.
Winner of the ALM Championship and/or Grand Final, nada.
Winner of the ALM Championship and/or Grand Final, nada.
Should we end up hosting the grand final, how does that work with the Food Show at the Cake Tin all Grand Final weekend?
Should we end up hosting the grand final, how does that work with the Food Show at the Cake Tin all Grand Final weekend?
Would be just our luck that we win it and have to play the GF in Auckland.
Should we end up hosting the grand final, how does that work with the Food Show at the Cake Tin all Grand Final weekend?
Would be just our luck that we win it and have to play the GF in Auckland.
Yeah… this seems like a nightmare waiting to happen…suppose we have to make the final first
Definitely been preseason games with the Home & Garden show in the concourse, I'm not sure on competitive matches?
There are no circumstances under which it would be ok for a Nix hosted GF to be anywhere except Wellington.
There are no circumstances under which it would be ok for a Nix hosted GF to be anywhere except Wellington.
Definitely been preseason games with the Home & Garden show in the concourse, I'm not sure on competitive matches?
There are no circumstances under which it would be ok for a Nix hosted GF to be anywhere except Wellington.
There are no circumstances under which it would be ok for a Nix hosted GF to be anywhere except Wellington.
It would be criminal
Should we end up hosting the grand final, how does that work with the Food Show at the Cake Tin all Grand Final weekend?
If required it will be a matter for the Nix and Wellington City Council to sort out. I don't imagine the APL or Aussie clubs will show alot of sympathy, or be prepared to have the final put back a week. There will be broadcasting dates & contracts in place, age group & Socceroos camps planned, and other similar issues etc etc.
Central Coast have never hosted a GF, even when the highest ranked qualifier. Gosford is too small. APL denied Melb City the chance to host last season's GF, with their NSW Govt deal. And until that deal was replaced by the Unite Round, a few months ago the ROF couldn't host a GF anyway. Imagine how much it would suck now if that earlier deal was still in place!
A GF at Eden Park wouldn't be great for long suffering Nix fans, waiting 17 years for their moment - but again it will be Nix/NZ problem to sort out in need. Football fans verus the gardeners.
FYI - ALM GF weekend 25th-26th May, the Blues are playing in ChCh (Crusaders) - so Eden Park should be available.
Central Coast have never hosted a GF, even when the highest ranked qualifier. Gosford is too small. APL denied Melb City the chance to host last season's GF, with their NSW Govt deal. And until that deal was replaced by the Unite Round, a few months ago the ROF couldn't host a GF anyway. Imagine how much it would suck now if that earlier deal was still in place!
A GF at Eden Park wouldn't be great for long suffering Nix fans, waiting 17 years for their moment - but again it will be Nix/NZ problem to sort out in need. Football fans verus the gardeners.
FYI - ALM GF weekend 25th-26th May, the Blues are playing in ChCh (Crusaders) - so Eden Park should be available.
Ring of Dirt!
But realistically I imagine they would push the final back a week.
But realistically I imagine they would push the final back a week.
Play the GF at Porirua Park! Don't forsee any issues with that whatsoever...
Alternatively, bring back Hutt Rec!
Alternatively, bring back Hutt Rec!
Ring of Dirt!
But realistically I imagine they would push the final back a week.
But realistically I imagine they would push the final back a week.
Not so sure, again it would be a Nix/NZ issue to sort out, and doubt would be much flexibility from broadcasters, the APL & Aussie clubs. You can imagine the Aus football fratenity laughing, saying need to change the date of the GF is due to a gardening show. How very Kiwi. They will notice the Nix get their biggest regular season crowds to their alternate venue in Mt Eden.
Note you start to get issues like AC Milan and AS Roma, are going to play in Perth on Friday, 31st May. Could yet be other big European clubs playing in Australia that weekend.
You delay the grand final you lose A League media momentum, and potentially reduce your TV audience as attention drifts to events like the big Euro clubs visiting Aussie, State of Origin (which kicks off 5th June) etc etc
Been told there is nothing to worry about (or words to that effect).
Now can we stop talking about making the grand final, please.
Now can we stop talking about making the grand final, please.
Says it finishes at 4pm on Sunday, presumably if there's nothing to worry about the organisers of the food show have committed to pack up and get out of the way pretty quickly with maybe a later kick off.
Where have the ALM finals dates been published ??.
Edit- found it, for anyone who is interested:
Edit- found it, for anyone who is interested:
- Highest placed team may nominate preference to Host Leg 1 or 2
- Away Goals Rule does not apply for Semi Finals
WEEK 1: ELIMINATION FINALS (Friday 3rd – Sunday 5th May 2024)
3rd Place (Home) vs 6th Place (Away)
4th Place (Home) vs 5th Place (Away)
WEEK 2: SEMI FINALS (LEG 1) (Friday 10th – Sun 12th May 2024)
1st Place vs Lowest Place EF Winner (4th, 5th or 6th on ladder)
2nd Place vs Highest Place EF Winner Match (3rd, 4th or 5th on ladder)
WEEK 3: SEMI FINALS (LEG 2) (Friday 17th – Sunday 19th May 2024)
1st Place vs Lowest Place EF Winner (4th, 5th or 6th on ladder)
2nd Place vs Highest Place EF Winner Match (3rd, 4th or 5th on ladder)
WEEK 4: GRAND FINAL (Weekend of 24-26 May 2024)
SF winner v SF winner (Highest Placed Team is the Grand Final Host)
Also, interesting home team elects leg 1 or 2 of a semi. Absolute no brainer to take the second leg right, grind out the away game and then try to win at home??
Where have the ALM finals dates been published ??.
Edit- found it, for anyone who is interested:
Edit- found it, for anyone who is interested:
- Highest placed team may nominate preference to Host Leg 1 or 2
- Away Goals Rule does not apply for Semi Finals
WEEK 1: ELIMINATION FINALS (Friday 3rd – Sunday 5th May 2024)
3rd Place (Home) vs 6th Place (Away)
4th Place (Home) vs 5th Place (Away)
WEEK 2: SEMI FINALS (LEG 1) (Friday 10th – Sun 12th May 2024)
1st Place vs Lowest Place EF Winner (4th, 5th or 6th on ladder)
2nd Place vs Highest Place EF Winner Match (3rd, 4th or 5th on ladder)
WEEK 3: SEMI FINALS (LEG 2) (Friday 17th – Sunday 19th May 2024)
1st Place vs Lowest Place EF Winner (4th, 5th or 6th on ladder)
2nd Place vs Highest Place EF Winner Match (3rd, 4th or 5th on ladder)
WEEK 4: GRAND FINAL (Weekend of 24-26 May 2024)
SF winner v SF winner (Highest Placed Team is the Grand Final Host)
Also, interesting home team elects leg 1 or 2 of a semi. Absolute no brainer to take the second leg right, grind out the away game and then try to win at home??
I just want us to win the league and then I don't really care about the playoffs as much - i feel like that's more random and comes down to one of games. Eg when CCM smashed City who had led all year.
Should we end up hosting the grand final, how does that work with the Food Show at the Cake Tin all Grand Final weekend?
It will be a bunfight.
Where have the ALM finals dates been published ??.
Edit- found it, for anyone who is interested:
Edit- found it, for anyone who is interested:
- Highest placed team may nominate preference to Host Leg 1 or 2
- Away Goals Rule does not apply for Semi Finals
WEEK 1: ELIMINATION FINALS (Friday 3rd – Sunday 5th May 2024)
3rd Place (Home) vs 6th Place (Away)
4th Place (Home) vs 5th Place (Away)
WEEK 2: SEMI FINALS (LEG 1) (Friday 10th – Sun 12th May 2024)
1st Place vs Lowest Place EF Winner (4th, 5th or 6th on ladder)
2nd Place vs Highest Place EF Winner Match (3rd, 4th or 5th on ladder)
WEEK 3: SEMI FINALS (LEG 2) (Friday 17th – Sunday 19th May 2024)
1st Place vs Lowest Place EF Winner (4th, 5th or 6th on ladder)
2nd Place vs Highest Place EF Winner Match (3rd, 4th or 5th on ladder)
WEEK 4: GRAND FINAL (Weekend of 24-26 May 2024)
SF winner v SF winner (Highest Placed Team is the Grand Final Host)
Also, interesting home team elects leg 1 or 2 of a semi. Absolute no brainer to take the second leg right, grind out the away game and then try to win at home??
I just want us to win the league and then I don't really care about the playoffs as much - i feel like that's more random and comes down to one of games. Eg when CCM smashed City who had led all year.
Exactly. For me, just get the first silverware, and then anything else is a bonus.
CCM are looking good ... and back to the top.
This weekend went exactly the way we didnt want it to, points wise.
We need a big crowd and a win next week!
This weekend went exactly the way we didnt want it to, points wise.
We need a big crowd and a win next week!
Remaining matches:
CCM [40 pts]: Sydney (A) / City (H) / Phoenix (H) / Western (A) / Adelaide (H) / Jets (A)
WEL [40 pts]: Sydney (H) / Roar (H) / CCM (A) / Victory (H) / Jets (A) / Macarthur (H)
MVC [34 pts]: Western (A) / Glory (H) / City (H) / Phoenix (A) / Roar (H) / WSW (H)
SYD [31 pts]: Phoenix (A) / CCM (H) / Glory (A) / Jets (A) / WSW (H) / Macarthur (A) / Glory (H)
Victory play 5/6 matches at Amy Parks. Only away trip left is to Wellington.
Added Sydney cuz they could gain 6 points by beating us & CCM. That will put them right in the mix.
CCM [40 pts]: Sydney (A) / City (H) / Phoenix (H) / Western (A) / Adelaide (H) / Jets (A)
WEL [40 pts]: Sydney (H) / Roar (H) / CCM (A) / Victory (H) / Jets (A) / Macarthur (H)
MVC [34 pts]: Western (A) / Glory (H) / City (H) / Phoenix (A) / Roar (H) / WSW (H)
SYD [31 pts]: Phoenix (A) / CCM (H) / Glory (A) / Jets (A) / WSW (H) / Macarthur (A) / Glory (H)
Victory play 5/6 matches at Amy Parks. Only away trip left is to Wellington.
Added Sydney cuz they could gain 6 points by beating us & CCM. That will put them right in the mix.
Gosford a big match, if we can manage the rest. Imo dropped points in Melbourne, and Perth. But perhaps the worst of the away conditions are done-apart from the Gosford crowd.
The game against City has made me certain that if we are to win this thing we need Zawada back. I think he adds that point of difference to our attacks and also allows us to score from set pieces damnit lol.
Kosta and Zawada are two very different players but both have that killer instinct which we'll need for the finals. It'll be nice having them both back working off one another. I also hope the potential of a big move for Zawada after this season adds a bit of motivation for him so we get GIGA ZAWADA for the final rounds and the final series.
Lets go lads 💛🖤
Kosta and Zawada are two very different players but both have that killer instinct which we'll need for the finals. It'll be nice having them both back working off one another. I also hope the potential of a big move for Zawada after this season adds a bit of motivation for him so we get GIGA ZAWADA for the final rounds and the final series.
Lets go lads 💛🖤
I know it’s off topic sorry, but you wonder if the injuries may have put some interest off, especially looking at his career record.
While I'm incredibly gutted we couldn't make that 5-point buffer last longer, we're still incredibly well-placed to win it all this season
While I'm incredibly gutted we couldn't make that 5-point buffer last longer, we're still incredibly well-placed to win it all this season
Up until the last couple of rounds CCM had a pretty average away record, unfortunately they've picked it up.
Now we'll really see if being #1 had an effect on the team if they start tearing it up.
The form for both us and CCM is good, literally a goal (to convert one of those draws into a win, as well as the goal difference) in it. It's really close between us and you'd be brave to bet against either team.
Wheels have to really fall off for anyone to catch us, even Sydney.
Wheels have to really fall off for anyone to catch us, even Sydney.