Wellington Phoenix Men

Keeper Angst V1.08

167 replies · 1,496 views
over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Stripes wrote:

Won't find one?� That's true, but not in the way that you think it is, oh keeper of the 'keeper numbers.� I found three pretty quickly, all from big teams in the current season.� I'm sure that there's plenty more out there.ArsenalMannone 5 EPL games conceded 5 goals - an average of 1 goal/matchAlmunia 8 EPL games conceded 13 goals - an average of 1.625 goals/match
Sorry to burst your bubble but these keepers did not face similar teams. Alumina faced Man United, Man City, Chelsea, Tottenham, Wolves, Sunderland, Everton and Portsmouth. Together they have scored 190 goals or 23.75 goals each.

Mannoe has faced no teams of note in West Ham, Birmingham, Blackburn, Fulham and Wigan have scored 85 goals or 17 each.

I think you can clearly see that Alumina faced alot more difficult teams and the weak teams he faced (Wolves, Portsmouth) he conceded only 2 goals. I would prefer an example in a competitive league like the A-League where any team can win.

In the A-League all teams are relatively comparable while in the PL this is not the case. I am sure I could shoot down the other two examples as your logic is obviously flawed.

A note to people who try to prove me wrong in the future, read through my previous posts unlike Stripes has. I have said that Crowther and Paston have had virtually the same (McKain, Sigmund and Durante are of similar class) defenders in front of them, played teams with equal offensive ability (Although Paston played Melbourne perhaps the only team ahead in the league).

Also why do the best midfielders get the most assists (or there abouts), best strikers get the most goals (or there abouts) and best defenders + goalkeeper get the most clean sheets/concede the least amount of goals (or there abouts)? Saying statistics don't tell a story is just not right. I am not saying it doesn't show everything but it is a VERY good indicate a majority of the time.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Come on bro, give it up. It's getting boring.simon_hampton2009-12-02 17:19:52
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
How many points is one of Paston's fly-kick slices into row Z worth?

Founder

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Nah. If Paston had played they'd have scored 26 in the first game and 28 in the second. I know you think that's unlikely, but I'd like you to prove otherwise with statistics from this season.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]If Crowther had played against Melbourne or GCU, they would've scored a negative number of goals in every game. I know you think that's impossible, but I'd like you to prove otherwise with statistics from this season.


I have no idea of the point you are trying to get across. Just a childish reply.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Feverish wrote:
How many points is one of Paston's fly-kick slices into row Z worth?
I hold you responsible for this btw.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago


chocnut2009-12-02 17:35:20
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Pic fail.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Yeah for some reason its not happening. But it says "how about a nice cup of shut the f**k up" which fits this situation well.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
I would stop if people atleast admitted that statistics play a part in judging how well a player is. As I said before it is no coincidence that the top players get the most goals (or there abouts) etc.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
 
Nope doesn't work for me either.
 
It would fit this situation nicely though !
simon_hampton2009-12-02 17:39:37
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
�
Nope doesn't work for me either.

�

It would fit this situation nicely though !
I think it is a sign...
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Here is an interesting stat.
Mitchell Langerak has the most consistent pose in an action shot.



Stefan2009-12-02 17:46:04
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
 
Nope doesn't work for me either.

 

It would fit this situation nicely though !
I think it is a sign...
 
 
Happy ?
simon_hampton2009-12-02 17:45:50
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Stefan2009-12-02 17:48:45
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
You don't have to read it. You obviously enjoy it for whatever reasons so it is pointless posting it and I see no point in stopping if you think stats don't belong in football.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Feverish wrote:
How many points is one of Paston's fly-kick slices into row Z worth?
haha hes also forgotten pastons 1st couple of games this season. The joys of school holidays

rojas, so special

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Feverish wrote:
How many points is one of Paston's fly-kick slices into row Z worth?
haha hes also forgotten pastons 1st couple of games this season. The joys of school holidays

You think you would have more time to think about it.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Feverish wrote:
How many points is one of Paston's fly-kick slices into row Z worth?
haha hes also forgotten pastons 1st couple of games this season. The joys of school holidays
How have I forgotten?
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Stripes wrote:

Won't find one?  That's true, but not in the way that you think it is, oh keeper of the 'keeper numbers.  I found three pretty quickly, all from big teams in the current season.  I'm sure that there's plenty more out there.ArsenalMannone 5 EPL games conceded 5 goals - an average of 1 goal/matchAlmunia 8 EPL games conceded 13 goals - an average of 1.625 goals/match[/QUOTE] Sorry to burst your bubble but these keepers did not face similar teams. [/quote]

It's not burst.  You wrote:

"Find me an example where two keepers at the same club are playing and the keeper that is better has worst stats than the one that is worst. Trust me, you won't find one, so stop being ignorant to the numbers."

You didn't write, "Find me an example where two keepers at the same club are playing against opposition of the same quality..."

I am sure I could shoot down the other two examples as your logic is obviously flawed.


Show, don't tell.

However, you might want to say that Serie A isn't competitive.  So, there's the Championship, where:
Blackpool's second choice 'keeper, Matthew Gilks, has conceded at 1.0 a game while the first-choice man, Paul Rachubka is conceding at 1.18 per game;
Boro's first-choice 'keeper, Danny Coyne, has conceded 1.13 goals a game, while #2 Brad Jones goes a goal a game.
At Blades, loanee Mark Bunn is meant to be the best 'keeper there, but he's gone for 1.64 goals/game, while Ian Bennett only concedes at a rate of 1.33.

Or, if only a salary-capped league can be competitive, there's MLS.  San Jose's #1 Joe Cannon has conceded 1.61 goals/game, while #2 Andrew Weber only concedes 1.5 goals/game.

[QUOTE=wellyphoenixfan]A note to people who try to prove me wrong in the future, read through my previous posts unlike Stripes has. I have said that Crowther and Paston have had virtually the same (McKain, Sigmund and Durante are of similar class) defenders in front of them, played teams with equal offensive ability (Although Paston played Melbourne perhaps the only team ahead in the league).


I know you've written all of that.  It's just that you're wrong.  A-League teams differ in their offensive ability (e.g. Adelaide do not have much going forward this season) and have different vulnerabilities (e.g. GCU only look flash if you don't take them on in midfield).  If you want to compare Crowther and Paston with teams of equal offensive ability, then that'd better be comparing their performance against the very same team.  Here's the numbers:

vs. Newcastle Jets, Crowther has kept a clean sheet and Paston has conceded 3.  Were it not for Paston letting so many through, the Jets would be scoring at less than a goal a game.
vs. Perth Glory, they've both conceded 1 goal.

(I'm leaving off the Roar, because they changed their system to add weight to the attack recently, so their offensive ability clearly isn't equal to itself.)

If that's the test (and this is your standard, not mine), then Crowther is better than Paston.

[quote=wellyphoenixfan]Saying statistics don't tell a story is just not right. I am not saying it doesn't show everything but it is a VERY good indicate a majority of the time.


Taking your scolding to read your posts carefully, I see that you're telling us that statistics does show everything.  That's a very silly thing to write.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Stripes 2-0 WPF.
 
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Stefan wrote:
Here is an interesting stat.
Mitchell Langerak has the most consistent pose in an action shot.



he kinda looks like pasty to me, younger and skinnier.
You know we belong together...

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Sorry I can be wrong Stripes, I am human. I should of included that but I thought you would find a similar example in the A-League. Of course my statement that you would never find one was obviously not right (Can't be stuffed proving it wrong) but in the majority of cases like over 70% the better keeper has the better stats. Also if I have given the impression that I believe stats tell the full story I didn't mean to give this impression. I was just using the same variables for both and ignored stuff like conditions where it could change it however conditions are fairly constant with few extremes (However Paston has faced a few). Note though that conditions were generally favourable to Crowther.

vs. Newcastle Jets, Crowther has kept a clean sheet and Paston has conceded 3. Were it not for Paston letting so many through, the Jets would be scoring at less than a goal a game.
vs. Perth Glory, they've both conceded 1 goal.

(I'm leaving off the Roar, because they changed their system to add weight to the attack recently, so their offensive ability clearly isn't equal to itself.)

If that's the test (and this is your standard, not mine), then Crowther is better than Paston.
But that sample is far smaller then my own and only against two teams. The bigger the sample the more reliable the data. You leave out Pastons 4 most impressibe achievements vs CCM, GCU and Melbourne. I have included both Pastons and Crowthers best and worst achievements, your stats are bias towards Crowther were mine is free from bias as it includes everything.

I have also said Pastons worst game this season was the first but it is unacceptable he let in three to such a terrible defence.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Oska wrote:
he kinda looks like pasty to me, younger and skinnier.
And he is a better keeper then Moss like Paston.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Nothing alike
Stefan2009-12-02 18:48:30
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Oska wrote:
he kinda looks like pasty to me, younger and skinnier.
And he is a better keeper then Moss like Paston.
You are unbearable.
You know we belong together...

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Impressive achievements? Wait impressible sorry great english there. GCU was not 'impressible' it was a great attacking effort and we dominated their midfield- hence naught got to Paston. But I guess he was telling Tim Brown exactly what to do?
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Oska wrote:
Oska wrote:
he kinda looks like pasty to me, younger and skinnier.
And he is a better keeper then Moss like Paston.
You are unbearable.
Sorry I couldn't resist.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
chocnut wrote:
Impressive achievements? Wait impressible sorry great english there. GCU was not 'impressible' it was a great attacking effort and we dominated their midfield- hence naught got to Paston. But I guess he was telling Tim Brown exactly what to do?
I did not write impressible moron.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Sorry I can be wrong Stripes, I am human. I should of included that but I thought you would find a similar example in the A-League. Of course my statement that you would never find one was obviously not right (Can't be stuffed proving it wrong) but in the majority of cases like over 70% the better keeper has the better stats. Also if I have given the impression that I believe stats tell the full story I didn't mean to give this impression. I was just using the same variables for both and ignored stuff like conditions where it could change it however conditions are fairly constant with few extremes (However Paston has faced a few). Note though that conditions were generally favourable to Crowther.[/quote]

There were extreme cases.  Especially the game against the Roar, where they had a new manager and flooded the midfield.  I also think that Sydney have Ricki's number, but that's more a matter of opinion.

vs. Newcastle Jets, Crowther has kept a clean sheet and Paston has conceded 3. Were it not for Paston letting so many through, the Jets would be scoring at less than a goal a game.
vs. Perth Glory, they've both conceded 1 goal.

(I'm leaving off the Roar, because they changed their system to add weight to the attack recently, so their offensive ability clearly isn't equal to itself.)

If that's the test (and this is your standard, not mine), then Crowther is better than Paston.


But that sample is far smaller then my own and only against two teams. The bigger the sample the more reliable the data. You leave out Pastons 4 most impressibe achievements vs CCM, GCU and Melbourne. I have included both Pastons and Crowthers best and worst achievements, your stats are bias towards Crowther were mine is free from bias as it includes everything.


It's not my bias.  You wanted to do a comparison against teams of equal offensive ability.  Obviously, no two teams in the A-League have an exactly equal offensive ability, though it is somewhat true to say that a team's offensive ability is equal to its own offensive ability.  Don't blame me for your own bizarre standards!

At any rate, your sample wasn't random, but you've pretended that it was.  That's a form of bias.  You also won't show the margin of error, though from the small samples involved I'm pretty confident that it would deflate your argument.  (I assume that you know how to calculate it, because you keep going on about statistics.)  That's beyond bias and into attempted deceit.

If you go up-thread to look at the shot-stopping example, where I was setting the parameters, it actually supported the claim that Paston was a better 'keeper (on the strength of his stopping), although the margin was in some doubt.

[QUOTE=wellyphoenixfan]I have also said Pastons worst game this season was the first but it is unacceptable he let in three to such a terrible defence.


Errr... here's some friendly advice: re-read what you've written before hitting the reply button.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
It wasn't random, it was every single game from this season. I never claimed once it was random.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Sigh.

In statistics, random sampling is extremely important.  If I poll everyone I meet on Lambton Quay on Friday between 12pm and 2pm about their preferred Prime Minister, and then present my findings as relevant, it's not a very informative study.  Similarly, if I do the same thing except polling everyone on Adelaide Road on Saturday between 7pm and 9pm.  (I hope it's clear why those two samples would produce dubious results without further explanation.)

So, when WPF just grabs all the available data on Crowther and Paston in the A-League, it can be similarly misleading, even though he hasn't excluded data due to personal taste.  What such statistics are meant to do is indicate what can be expected from either 'keeper playing another game in the competition.  (That's certainly the way WPF is using them.)  If the sample was random, then this would be a warranted use.  But - as WPF admits, it's not a random sample.

See the problem?
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
The only reason people take random samples is because the sample is too big to take all the data of the sample. An example is political polling as you said is a random sample however it is not accurate as it does not include the entire sample (well depending on the % of people who voted) like the actual election does. I have basically done the entire election while you want to do a poll which is not accurate.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
So, all you're actually saying is that Paston has been a better 'keeper than Crowther, but that tomorrow is another day?
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
WPF, please shut up.
 
Someone lock this thread.
 
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Ill keep posting pictures till this is locked
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

I'm gonna go with an IBTL.

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
You know we belong together...

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