Predictions, 2018/2019 season

Who will win the Premiers Plate?

Sydney: 44.8%
Victory: 22.4%
Glory: 15.5%

Will the Premiers win the Grand Final?

Yes: 50.9%
No: 49.1%

Who will win the Wooden Spoon?

CCM: 48.3%
WEL: 13.8%
WSW: 13.8%
BRI: 12.1%

Who will be the first Manager sacked?

Aloisi: 17.9%
Mulvey: 17.9%
Babbel: 16.1%
None: 14.3%
Joyce: 12.5%
Muscat: 8.9%

Who will win the Golden Boot?

Fornaroli: 28.6%
Le Fondre: 19.6%
Toivonen: 17.9%
Someone Else: 14.3%

Who will be the Goal Keeper of The Year?

Thomas: 27.8%
Kurto: 16.7%
Birighitti: 14.8%
Redmayne: 11.1%
Izzo: 9.3%
Moss: 9.3%

Who will win the Johnny Warren Medal?

Honda: 22%
Someone Else: 18%
Fornaroli: 10%
Toivonen: 6%
Krishna: 6%

Who will win the FFA Cup Final?

Adelaide: 16.4%
Sydney: 83.6%

Will Australia win the 2019 Asian Cup?

Yes: 7.1%
No: 92.9%

Will an A-League team make it out of the ACL Group Stages?

Yes: 57.1%
No: 42.9%

Will WSW be deducted points for Bad Fan Behavior ?

Yes: 30.4%
No: 69.6%

How many sausage rolls will Adam le Fondre have?

0-4: 9.1%
5-8: 21.8%
9-12: 20%
13-16: 12.7%
17+: 36.4%

Will Usain Bolt play an A-League game?

Yes: 44.6%
No: 55.4%

Which two expansion bids will be accepted?

South West Sydney Macarthur (Sydney): 38.9%
Southern Expansion (Sydney region): 37%
Wollongong Wolves: 27.8%
Team 11 (Melbourne): 24.1%
South Melbourne FC: 35.2%
Western Melbourne Group: 5.6%
Ipswich Pride FC: 5.6%
Canberra & Capital Region: 22.2%

great numbers RR, will be interesting to check back on these over time.

Putting my neck on the line and publicly post my predictions. Last year's went horribly wrong, so these ones are bound to be good. Thought about this long and hard, and this is what I think will happen:

1st: Melbourne City - 2nd season under Joyce, some very good signings made to patch last year's weaknesses. Schenkeveld, Fornaroli are arguably the best in their positions in the league, and they've added guys like McGree, Griffiths, De Laet, Birrighitti. Vidosic to have a big year too.

2nd: Perth Glory - A lot of hype around the glory, but its warranted. Their back line is the closest you can get in the A-League to a brick wall. Up top Ikonomidis is a huge get, and Castro and Keogh still have the goods. A lot of new players on the books, but they got their signings wrapped up really early on, so plenty of time to gel as a unit.

3rd: Sydney FC - The transition from Arnie to a new coach has been as smooth as possible by enlisting Corica, and they've kept the engine room in Brillante and O'Neill. They'll still be very well oiled and Ninkovic will shine again, but losing Mierzejewski and Bobo will hurt them. Le Fondre won't score as many as Bobo, and de Jong isn't as versatile or mobile as Adrian. 

4th: Melbourne Victory - Too much hype, too much change. Entirely new back line, but unlike Perth it's nowhere near as strong with the exception of Niedermeier. Honda is class but with all his businesses and side projects like being the coach for the Cambodian NT, not sure I can see him giving 100% for the whole season. 

5th: Adelaide United - Solid squad all round, and Kurz is one of the best coaches in the league. Really rate the defensive pairing of Elsey and Jakobsen. Boland looks like an upgrade on Adlung, and in Goodwin, Halloran, Kitto and Mileusinic they have arguably the best depth in the league for wingers. Ken Ilso looks like a fun player too. Playoffs for sure, but not quite at the level to challenge the top 4.

6th: Wellington Phoenix - Would I put us in the six if I was a neutral? No. But I'm not a neutral, and I refuse to be anything other than optimistic. I can see us getting to finals footy for 3 reasons - Krishna, Taylor and most importantly Rudan. Love what he's about, think he will get the best out of everyone and we will see an extremely hard, mentally tough squad that can grind out ugly points. Big gap from the other 5, scrapping it out with the Jets and CCM.

7th: Newcastle Jets - To be honest if I wasn't a Nix fan I'd have them a place higher, but oh well. Second season syndrome for the Jets this year. Haven't lost anyone over the off-season, but haven't made any big signings either. Merrick relied on a few average or aging players performing out of their skins, don't think they will be so lucky anymore. Vargas is fit again though, so that puts a spanner in the works. still don't think it will be enough though, Jets to massively disappoint. 

8th: Central Coast Mariners - Mariners will make a good stab of it, and McCormack and Oar will light it up. Problem for me is that defence - still looks very leaky to me and has no depth. They'll start well, but will fade towards the end of the season once Hiarije is completely gassed from running the midfield by himself for the first twenty rounds.

9th: Western Sydney Wanderers - Whole lot of Gombau pet projects signed, yet Gombau given the sack. Absolutely no midfield presence, will get overrun by lots of teams. Predict Baumjohann to be a flop. And Bonevacia playing on the wing? Madness. Fantastic youth players will be the silver lining of their season 

10th: Brisbane Roar - Last place goes to the Roar. Defence too slow, and wildly lacking wide players. Taggart was a good get, but the rest of the squad looks weak and uninspired.  

Look forward to laughing at these in April.

Nice assessment DJ, Loved your last sentence, shows you can laugh at yourself should you be proved wrong but I think you got a lot right. I don't know about the Nix. Potential to have a great season, but we have had that for years only for it to end in tears. fingers crossed for this year though.

Brave predictions DJ. But I think you have the top 5 and bottom 5 correct. How they stack up in the end will be very interesting. 

Has anyone seen a 1-10 prediction list (from a non-Nix source) that does NOT have the Nix in at 10th?

I haven't been actively seeking them out, but pretty sure all of those I have seen has us at number 10. 

Anyone done the analysis of 'expert' predictions?

they don't exist, which is why I always question the experts 'unbiased' position. Clearly there are still some anti-nixers out there who Fox keep rolling out for opinions.

A few Aussie commentators on "The daily football show" Don't actually have us as 10th. The Roar also not rated highly.

Here is the link if you want to have a listen.

https://dailyfootballshow.com/daily-football-show-...

To be honest, if I was a neutral, I would not rate us in the top 6; so it's hardly surprising.

we will make the grand final

Some team rankings...

My picks for the regular season:

Sydney, MC, Perth,Newcastle, Nix, Victory, Brisbane, WSW, Adelaide, CCM

1) Sydney: Even tho the Arnie era is over, I am still expecting Sydney to stay at the top of the table. ALF & De Jong look to be adequate replacements for the losses of Bobo & Adrian. However they have lost some proven squad depth with Simon, Carney & Wilkshire departing so I don't expect they will be as dominate as previous seasons.

2) City: Probably the deepest squad in the A-League, loads of proven A-League performers available for Joyce to select from. Biggest worry for City will be Fornaroli getting hurt, striker is the only position without a established back up. After the way he finished last season, I'm expecting a big season from Vidosic with a quality striker for him to provide service too.

3) Victory: Wow, what a starting XI they have assembled in the off season. I can see why people have them as title favorites but when you look at the bench, there is just nothing that can change a game available to Muscat. Combine the lack of depth and an ACL campaign they are desperate to do well in, I predict that they are gonna slump at the end of the season.

4) Glory: The three Tony's have start rebuilding the Glory from the back, they could field a back line that was a genuine Socceroos option only a few seasons ago. Popa has even managed to convince Castro to do a pre-season, so expect them to come out of the blocks fast. Travel will be the biggest hurdle for them, Popa has never had to deal with so much regular travel before.

5) Jets: Ernie has had a quiet off season, focusing on keeping what he has rather than adding heavily to the squad. Their season derailed late after being unable to replace Nabbout in the January transfer window, will Jair be the answer? I'm unsure. Goals will be an issue with ROD suspended for the first third of the season & predict Hoffman/Kanta will revert to the norm.

6) Roar: Aloisi has discovered that you can actually sign players under the age of 35, so has brought down the average age of Dad's Army with the addition of some quality players in Mauk & Taggart. I don't think their squad has got any better or worse tho, so probably will sneak into the play offs again on the back of Taggart's goals.

7) Adelaide: Where are the goals coming from? That is Kurz's biggest question to answer in the off season but he failed to recruit them a regular goal scorer. Goodwin and Halloran are great additions but are not noted goal scorers, so everything relies on Blackwood & Diawara being able to find some goal scoring form. Apart from that, they have a very solid squad.

8) WSW: They tried to reassemble Gombau's Adelaide squad during the off season and then proceeded to sack him. Babel is left with a squad that he could barely change and the results in pre-season reflect that. The FFA Cup run masks some terrible form, if things start poorly the wheels could fall off fairly quickly.

9) CCM: Their off season started with the usual raids of the NPL for anyone showing a hint of talent. But as it went along the purse strings were loosened and the additions of McCormack and Oar have added some much needed quality into their squad. The question will be whether McCormack will score enough goals to cover for the disaster at the back.

10) Phoenix: Depth, there just isn't any. Injuries to any of the starting XI and we are gonna be struggling. For us to do well this season, we are gonna need a lot of 1-0 wins as other than Krishna I don't know where the goals are going to come from up front. To challenge for the top six, we need Burns & Nichols to rediscover their mojo of previous years.



Johnny Warren Medal: Dario Vidosic
Golden Boot: Adam le Fondre
Coach of the Year: Steve Corica
Young Footballer of the Year: Kosta Grozos
Goalkeeper of the Year: Lawrence Thomas
Referee of the Year: Jarred Gillett

I feel we have a young squad, who will perform above expectations. I don't think we will see a demoralised team. We won't give up and we will score goals. I worry about our midfield, as we haven't really seen any of the players play there in this league.  I think we will be a team with a point to prove. 

Mandi to get a yellow this weekend. 

A meelee to ensure, lots of pushing and shoving as part of the Nix's new hard nosed approach, Ernie and 'castle bench to get a mouthful from Dura and others.

Managed it ok in the ACL

True...but he won't have two competitions to contend and no midweek games. 

I love the self regulation on unrealistic predictions. 

Last day for preseason predictions.

Nix defectors: Galloway and McGlinchey to get more game time than Ridenton, who gets more than Italiano. Game time = minutes played / minutes available.

Burgess to become an established professional player - good pro contract next year, A league or better. Sofascore >6.7

Cacace to be used more for attack than defence - this is kind of happening already with the 5-3-2 / 3-5-2 formation.

And a counterprediction - no A league player will score (for his own team) from a bicycle kick, from his own half, or direct from a corner.

Quality predictions

Swirley wind at Westpac could make the "scoring a goal direct from a corner" a possible feat.

It'd have to touch another player on the way to be a goal at the other end...

"A goal may be scored directly from a corner kick, but only against the opposing team; if the ball directly enters the kicker's goal a corner kick is awarded to the opponents."

Predictions - David Williams - watch !

Interesting to step through this as the results have come in:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predic...

No surprise that the website that can't predict elections well also can't predict soccer.

Dang, this has pretty much happened, altho at CM rather than DM. Did anyone else predict this happening?

glad for the boy... he's finally got game time and proven his worth. Too much made about his name rather than him.

Yea, decent predictions apart from way off with City. A bit off with Mariners, but the two players you said would be key have been injured and you called the lack of depth.

Slightly low on Phoenix for end of season hopefully... but probably a more positive prediction for us than most were thinking at the time.

With McCormack consistently they woulda been better 

Wrong. Thanks Bautheac.