Politics - a place to rant

Yeah, the Dems played that completely wrong, their strong finish in the mid-terms in 22 is what kept Biden around for longer than he should. Had they been able to run a primary candidate race they may have arrived at a different preferred candidate than Harris (they may not as well). Either way, she didnt have enough time to establish herself as "not Bidon" and really get her message across. Also I think the Dems message really didnt resonate with the actual issues that most people were focussed on (economy being the big one). Trumps messaging of "are you better off now than you were 4 years ago" really hit home. I think the women's rights, body autonomy issues (whilst important) really isolated them from alot of the voters who were focussed on making ends meet.

As for what happens now, Ukraine and Palestine have to be worried, Trump supporters were already concerned about the funding to Ukraine - plus Trump has said he'll stop that war in 1 day - can onyl see that going one way and that will be in Putin's favour. US has always supported Israel, and the conservatives more so. This can only be bad news for what's left of Palestine, who Trump sees as basically part of Hamas and the other terrorist organisations associated with Muslim/Arab communities.

That's quite insulting to third world nations.

What it is is a dissatisfaction with the status quo. Although globalisation is what is what made the US as wealthy as it is and their economy is going very well, inequality means the vast majority of US citizens don't see that. 

As well as being very insular, having bad education, and decades of propoganda undermining confidence in the government and religious rhetoric. 

Just like people blamed labour for inflation they blamed the democrats in the US without realising that it's a global problem driven by a perfect storm of pent up economic demand from COVID and war disputed supply.

Unfortunately voting in billionaires with insane economic policies and who have never known what it's like to struggle is not the solution. Likely the US economic situation will worsen and inequality will grow. 

Also their need to politicise everything means something which should be apolitical such as the existential threat of climate change or peoples rights will go backwards.

It’s also an American identity crisis. The UK had something similar in the 70s.

But the question is why the Democrats didn’t fight harder on the economy.

Since the end of 2020, U.S. real GDP has risen 11.8 percent, compared with 8.3 percent in the other advanced economies.
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4956904-the-biden-harris-economic-record-is-much-better-than-critics-claim/

That is a message to go to bat with. We’ve done the hard part, don’t put it all at risk. Add to that how good Biden was on jobs. Defend your corner and your work.

The other factor is that Biden was Biden, a white working class union appreciating guy with occasional wandering hands and aviators who could also be a fiscal hawk, not a black and ethnic woman and lawyer from California. 

There’s never been a female president and Barack Obama who is talented above and beyond is the only black president thus far. 

A lot of saying one thing to the pollsters and voting Trump.

Geez I said something similar to 👆before the election. 

Well Project 2025 is on. The absolute politicisation of the public sphere. 

And an extraordinary number of Republicans who were hoping to have their party back and who spoke out against Trump are instead going to be finding it tricky to get jobs. 

Thats the scary thing, last time around he had a lot of relativity normal people around him to keep him in check and coming into this election they all said he was not fit for office. This time around he doesn't have anyone to moderate him, in fact they'll likely exaggerate his worse impulses.

Good to hear this response from Greenpeace International.
https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/71206/resist-and-persist/

Guardian article also mentioning how other US climate groups are planning to try and mobilise Democrats and some Republicans to oppose the shark Trump plans to pull again.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/06/trump-climate-change-environment-threat

Wusty Wab

Good to hear this response from Greenpeace International.
https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/71206/resist-and-persist/

Guardian article also mentioning how other US climate groups are planning to try and mobilise Democrats and some Republicans to oppose the shark Trump plans to pull again.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/06/trump-climate-change-environment-threat

What’s happening in NZ? We’ve got a government opening up new fossil fuels where possible, canceling plans such as the successful ones around clean cars and planning just to not pay their Paris agreement costs. Oh and a culture war against non-car transport. 

I mean with the US out, it’s game over surely. Nothing short of immediate mass mobilisation on behalf of our children and grandchildren who are the ones being waged war upon, is really a thing. Court cases? They’ve got the executive, oh and a rigged Supreme Court. They’ll just pass a new law or executive order. If it gets that far. That will be too little too late. 

Fortunately for me there’s a reasonable chance of a variety of volcanic eruptions or megaquakes near Kanto anyway! There’s an outside chance of Taupo going again in NZ too. I won’t have to wait for the fires, cyclones, floods, hurricanes, lifeboaters, etc etc 

Probably enterprising f-rs buying up north of Auckland and planting bananas and coffee…

martinb

Wusty Wab

Good to hear this response from Greenpeace International.
https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/71206/resist-and-persist/

Guardian article also mentioning how other US climate groups are planning to try and mobilise Democrats and some Republicans to oppose the shark Trump plans to pull again.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/06/trump-climate-change-environment-threat

What’s happening in NZ? We’ve got a government opening up new fossil fuels where possible, canceling plans such as the successful ones around clean cars and planning just to not pay their Paris agreement costs. Oh and a culture war against non-car transport. 

I mean with the US out, it’s game over surely. Nothing short of immediate mass mobilisation on behalf of our children and grandchildren who are the ones being waged war upon, is really a thing. Court cases? They’ve got the executive, oh and a rigged Supreme Court. They’ll just pass a new law or executive order. If it gets that far. That will be too little too late. 

Fortunately for me there’s a reasonable chance of a variety of volcanic eruptions or megaquakes near Kanto anyway! There’s an outside chance of Taupo going again in NZ too. I won’t have to wait for the fires, cyclones, floods, hurricanes, lifeboaters, etc etc 

Probably enterprising f-rs buying up north of Auckland and planting bananas and coffee…

Obviously the US climate activists and groups, even with the support of Democrats and maybe Republicans, won't be able to do this all on their own, they will need all the support they can get from the EU and other international climate organisations like Greenpeace.

In terms of potential repercussions for us and other countries, there is this coming up in December (before Trump returns to power) with the International Court of Justice. There is not yet a confirmation of the number of countries expected to speak, though the article mentions 62 nations and organisations have written comments to the court. The judges on the case are also not expected to deliver their verdict until sometime next year, but it could deliver something decent going forward.
https://www.euronews.com/green/2024/08/19/top-un-court-sets-date-for-landmark-hearings-on-countries-climate-obligations

Trying to keep positive in this ever-growing sharkshow of a world, especially after yesterday.

Research shows the keep positive message undercuts the urgent action message. 😧

But hey I’m quitting unless the Pacific Islands invade the US or some such! Though I guess there’s a difference between quitting green projects and getting all the fossil fuels you can and burning them to stick it to the libtards like our excuse for leaders are doing. 

In Japan coal is quietly expanding, but I understand that because they’ve had such a terrible experience with nuclear power. I believe they’re trying to bring some nuclear power back online and I’ve met several people in the solar industry which is amazing considering how often I get off here and meet people. But I feel if they wanted to crank it up more they could. But it’s clear there’s a lot of private sector involvement in solutions. This is a country that already gets plenty of storms and natural disasters and doesn’t need any more. 

But hey I’m still dead keen for Generic FC Auckland v Wellington Phoenix 2050 Lava Bowl! Ice vests. Water breaks. Stadium rooves. Hoping Bill left us some dosh and didn’t destroy our health system. Or the Aucks are run by the Northland Coffee and Weed Export company. If I make it that far…

martinb

Research shows the keep positive message undercuts the urgent action message. 😧

But hey I’m quitting unless the Pacific Islands invade the US or some such! Though I guess there’s a difference between quitting green projects and getting all the fossil fuels you can and burning them to stick it to the libtards like our excuse for leaders are doing. 

In Japan coal is quietly expanding, but I understand that because they’ve had such a terrible experience with nuclear power. I believe they’re trying to bring some nuclear power back online and I’ve met several people in the solar industry which is amazing considering how often I get off here and meet people. But I feel if they wanted to crank it up more they could. But it’s clear there’s a lot of private sector involvement in solutions. This is a country that already gets plenty of storms and natural disasters and doesn’t need any more. 

But hey I’m still dead keen for Generic FC Auckland v Wellington Phoenix 2050 Lava Bowl! Ice vests. Water breaks. Stadium rooves. Hoping Bill left us some dosh and didn’t destroy our health system. Or the Aucks are run by the Northland Coffee and Weed Export company. If I make it that far…

When I say trying to keep positive, I hope that with international support, US climate groups and activists will act with urgency to pile on as much misery for Trump and his administration. I'd like to see plans being developed now before he returns to office, which Greenpeace have mentioned in their response they intend to do in the coming weeks.

Same sort of language for the upcoming International Court of Justice case, hope that something meaningful will come out of it and governments like ours will face much tougher consequences for their lack of action going forward.

I meanwhile, like many others, will continue doing whatever I can personally to make a difference.

Wusty Wab

martinb

Research shows the keep positive message undercuts the urgent action message. 😧

But hey I’m quitting unless the Pacific Islands invade the US or some such! Though I guess there’s a difference between quitting green projects and getting all the fossil fuels you can and burning them to stick it to the libtards like our excuse for leaders are doing. 

In Japan coal is quietly expanding, but I understand that because they’ve had such a terrible experience with nuclear power. I believe they’re trying to bring some nuclear power back online and I’ve met several people in the solar industry which is amazing considering how often I get off here and meet people. But I feel if they wanted to crank it up more they could. But it’s clear there’s a lot of private sector involvement in solutions. This is a country that already gets plenty of storms and natural disasters and doesn’t need any more. 

But hey I’m still dead keen for Generic FC Auckland v Wellington Phoenix 2050 Lava Bowl! Ice vests. Water breaks. Stadium rooves. Hoping Bill left us some dosh and didn’t destroy our health system. Or the Aucks are run by the Northland Coffee and Weed Export company. If I make it that far…

When I say trying to keep positive, I hope that with international support, US climate groups and activists will act with urgency to pile on as much misery for Trump and his administration. I'd like to see plans being developed now before he returns to office, which Greenpeace have mentioned in their response they intend to do in the coming weeks.

Same sort of language for the upcoming International Court of Justice case, hope that something meaningful will come out of it and governments like ours will face much tougher consequences for their lack of action going forward.

I meanwhile, like many others, will continue doing whatever I can personally to make a difference.

‘Much tougher consequences going forward ‘ is probably too late to prevent the feedback loops right? 

We need combined international action now, not the possibility of Shane Jones and Simeon Brown facing up to some consequences that the US (and Russia, China…perhaps India and Brazil too depending how things are going) won’t be party to, in 2 or 3 years… 

and considering the current government policy seems to be to just ignore any international sanctions, it then saddles any future alternative government with massive problems, unless we make the deniers personally liable. Which is highly unlikely and opens more cans of worms. 

martinb

Wusty Wab

martinb

Research shows the keep positive message undercuts the urgent action message. 😧

But hey I’m quitting unless the Pacific Islands invade the US or some such! Though I guess there’s a difference between quitting green projects and getting all the fossil fuels you can and burning them to stick it to the libtards like our excuse for leaders are doing. 

In Japan coal is quietly expanding, but I understand that because they’ve had such a terrible experience with nuclear power. I believe they’re trying to bring some nuclear power back online and I’ve met several people in the solar industry which is amazing considering how often I get off here and meet people. But I feel if they wanted to crank it up more they could. But it’s clear there’s a lot of private sector involvement in solutions. This is a country that already gets plenty of storms and natural disasters and doesn’t need any more. 

But hey I’m still dead keen for Generic FC Auckland v Wellington Phoenix 2050 Lava Bowl! Ice vests. Water breaks. Stadium rooves. Hoping Bill left us some dosh and didn’t destroy our health system. Or the Aucks are run by the Northland Coffee and Weed Export company. If I make it that far…

When I say trying to keep positive, I hope that with international support, US climate groups and activists will act with urgency to pile on as much misery for Trump and his administration. I'd like to see plans being developed now before he returns to office, which Greenpeace have mentioned in their response they intend to do in the coming weeks.

Same sort of language for the upcoming International Court of Justice case, hope that something meaningful will come out of it and governments like ours will face much tougher consequences for their lack of action going forward.

I meanwhile, like many others, will continue doing whatever I can personally to make a difference.

‘Much tougher consequences going forward ‘ is probably too late to prevent the feedback loops right? 

We need combined international action now, not the possibility of Shane Jones and Simeon Brown facing up to some consequences that the US (and Russia, China…perhaps India and Brazil too depending how things are going) won’t be party to, in 2 or 3 years… 

and considering the current government policy seems to be to just ignore any international sanctions, it then saddles any future alternative government with massive problems, unless we make the deniers personally liable. Which is highly unlikely and opens more cans of worms. 

In relation to tipping points or feedback loops, it is a very controversial proposed solution and you've likely heard about it, but scientists are looking at ways to try and refreeze Arctic ice. There's some research currently being conducted at Cambridge University.
https://www.climaterepair.cam.ac.uk/refreeze

I have seen articles recently where first tests by UK group Real Ice, who are affiliated with Cambridge, have shown promise. However, it is early days, yet to be proven at a much larger scale and will obviously not be the solution all together, acting only as a bandage. There is also concern about the impact it could have on nearby wildlife. It could though give us more time than we currently do have to prevent further catastrophe, just hope the idea does not give governments the assumption that everything will work out fine and they do not need to show any real urgency.

There of course is the other tipping points like the Amazon, which thanks to Trump's South American mate Bolsonaro, is dangerously close to becoming inefficient in absorbing carbon. Lula has been doing a significantly better job though trying to reign in deforestation, despite his government backing a few profit over nature projects in the rainforest since his return to office. Also the fires still taking place because of massive drought and the decreasing but still present number of loggers won't be making things any easier for Lula.

Well you’re doing better on hope than me. But also, day to day, I don’t expect much to change, except as the weather changes. 

Already here there is alarm at how long it is taking Mt. Fuji to get a snow cap this autumn. 

Jonathan Pie’s take which I kind of agree with- Kamala arrived with a bang, lots of anticipation and got everyone’s attention and then talked about nothing but Trump. There was no follow up with a vote for us because…they didn’t even try to talk about jobs or growth which they’d actually done quite well on.

And while Musk is a dork who has concentrated a lot of power for example in being the internet provider  to Ukraine’s troops while saying they should make peace and being the US’s main source of rocket launches, he’s going to Space, which was what golden age US did. He’s doing big and showy tech. If there were any Soviets he’d show them…!

https://youtu.be/x0eq7VNCcYY?si=PFUbBFzLLgyYjCDi

Guy that I follow a bit, and think he's probably got it about right.


No B.S Friday: How did he do it?
So Trump won… again. What was inconceivable in 2015, and what was also inconceivable just two years ago, by Tuesday night just seemed inevitable. (Life lesson – don’t let other people’s expectations hold you back… ever.) Not only did Trump win, Republicans took control of the Senate, and possibly Congress. Hu-uge. But these are not your ordinary Republicans. The Republicans have been completely reborn under Trump. They’ve been completely remade.

I remember when Republican meant George Bush and Dick Chaney and crashing planes into towers and then invading oil-rich countries about it. It was a party by the billionaires, for the billionaires. But those Republicans are gone now. The few that were left have been purged in favour of Trump loyalists. And Trump has totally transformed who the Republican party represents. Take a look at this chart here. It looks at voting preference by education background.

In 1990, a university degree meant you were more likely to vote Republican by a substantial 10 points. Having no higher ed meant you were more likely to vote Democrat by the same margin. Thirty years on, that has now completely reversed. The trend started a bit before Trump came to power, but he threw petrol all over it. Now, lower ed means Republican leaning. Higher ed means Democrat leaning.

We’re talking about a 30 point reversal in both in just 30 years! You see the same thing playing out with income level. The top 20% of income earners used to be the Republican base. Now they are the income cohort most likely to vote Democrat, and do so by a 15 point margin. Break that down by ethnicity, and you get a similar seismic shift. The political scientist Thomas Wood reckons that in every presidential election from 1948 until 2012, the richest 5 percent of white voters were the group most likely to vote Republican. 

In 2016 and 2020, this dynamic reversed itself: The top 5 percent of white voters became the group most likely to vote Democratic. And the narrative the Trump base wants to sell you here is that Democrats got distracted by culture wars and forgot about the economic reality facing “ordinary Americans”. But since Trump first came to power, Democrats have been lazer focused on the economy. They did a study of top Democrats’ tweets between 2015 and 2022. They found nine of the 10 most frequently tweeted phrases were focused on economic issues, such as Build Back Better, Affordable Care Act, and American Rescue Plan. And the only noneconomic issue in the top 10 was abortion rights. 

Republicans, on the other hand, have given much more energy to the culture wars, and the ‘war against woke’. So the idea that it was the Democrats that took their eye off the economic ball doesn’t hold a lot of water to me. But then reality doesn’t matter. Perception matters. 

And the Trump base is now people who just want to get ahead, and who are receptive to the argument that the ‘woke agenda’ is just an unhelpful distraction from putting bread on the table. The poor vote Democrat because they want to be saved. The rich vote Democrat because they want to be saviours. Everyone else votes Republican – sorry, Trump – because they just want to get on with getting ahead. As long as Trump (and whoever follows him) owns that base, he owns America.

Signed with Success,
Jon Giaan

Got to be a scary time for the US public sector with the talk of cutting just under 1/3rd of government spending (two trillion). We've seen the affect of a 5% cut on the NZ economy, pushing us into recession and creating chaos in the Wellington job market.

They're also taking about creating a partisan rather than politically neutral public sector, so expect redundancies from people who aren't Republicans. last time he was president Trump tried to make generals swear fealty to the president and they pushed back and said they swear to the constitution, so expect upheaval there.

Although, with Musk there you'd expect that defence and NASA aren't the ones getting the cut, it will be things like education, environment, infrastructure, and social welfare.

There's also talk about cutting a lot of regulations, regulations can seem bureaucratic but usually they're there for a reason, regulations are about learning from past mistakes and are often earned in blood. 

Interesting stat I heard today is that every western country has changed leadership in this last election cycle. It's not a left vs right thing as countries like Australia and the UK moved left. It's more to do with dissatisfaction with the global inflation and cost of living crisis and growing inequality.

Italy and Argentina moved to the right. There are a few in Europe like Hungry and Croatia. The UK did not move to the left as such, the were pissed of with an incompetent Tory party. Australia got sucked in by the promises and will more than likely vote them out next May.  Northern Territory and Qld smashed the left in the last two months.

Ryan

Interesting stat I heard today is that every western country has changed leadership in this last election cycle. It's not a left vs right thing as countries like Australia and the UK moved left. It's more to do with dissatisfaction with the global inflation and cost of living crisis and growing inequality.

Leggy

Italy and Argentina moved to the right. There are a few in Europe like Hungry and Croatia. The UK did not move to the left as such, the were pissed of with an incompetent Tory party. Australia got sucked in by the promises and will more than likely vote them out next May.  Northern Territory and Qld smashed the left in the last two months.

Ryan

Interesting stat I heard today is that every western country has changed leadership in this last election cycle. It's not a left vs right thing as countries like Australia and the UK moved left. It's more to do with dissatisfaction with the global inflation and cost of living crisis and growing inequality.

i didn't say everyone moved to the left, I said all incumbents changed. Everyone. Countries with left wing governments moved right and countries with right wing governments moved left. It's clearly not a left vs right thing but a dissatisfaction to the status quo. Your excuses for the countries that moved left just reinforced what I said and the same excuses can be made for the countries that moved right.

The story about being sucked into promises will likely be just as valid for the Republicans as it is for the Australian Labor party.

The difference between the Republicans and the ALP is that people can see after 3 1/2 years that it was b/s. The Republicans have yet to deliver. 

Ryan

Leggy

Italy and Argentina moved to the right. There are a few in Europe like Hungry and Croatia. The UK did not move to the left as such, the were pissed of with an incompetent Tory party. Australia got sucked in by the promises and will more than likely vote them out next May.  Northern Territory and Qld smashed the left in the last two months.

Ryan

Interesting stat I heard today is that every western country has changed leadership in this last election cycle. It's not a left vs right thing as countries like Australia and the UK moved left. It's more to do with dissatisfaction with the global inflation and cost of living crisis and growing inequality.

i didn't say everyone moved to the left, I said all incumbents changed. Everyone. Countries with left wing governments moved right and countries with right wing governments moved left. It's clearly not a left vs right thing but a dissatisfaction to the status quo. Your excuses for the countries that moved left just reinforced what I said and the same excuses can be made for the countries that moved right.

The story about being sucked into promises will likely be just as valid for the Republicans as it is for the Australian Labor party.

Hence I said will likely be, their promises around healthcare, tax, government costs, prices and inflation, immigration, and trade tarrifs all comtradict each other.

When I see all these environmentalists & climate change activists go to China and India and rip them a new one, they will get my respect and support.
But they don't, they pick on the "West" and not address the real causes of climate change. And America is a prime target. Show some consistency activists. Somehow I don't think China nor India give a shark about what you think. Thumberg won't go near those 2 countries.

Time will tell. Doubt you know everything about the USA economy so your comment that all these things contracdict each other, I will take with a grain of salt.  

Ryan

Hence I said will likely be, their promises around healthcare, tax, government costs, prices and inflation, immigration, and trade tarrifs all comtradict each other.

Leggy

Italy and Argentina moved to the right. There are a few in Europe like Hungry and Croatia. The UK did not move to the left as such, the were pissed of with an incompetent Tory party. Australia got sucked in by the promises and will more than likely vote them out next May.  Northern Territory and Qld smashed the left in the last two months.

Ryan

Interesting stat I heard today is that every western country has changed leadership in this last election cycle. It's not a left vs right thing as countries like Australia and the UK moved left. It's more to do with dissatisfaction with the global inflation and cost of living crisis and growing inequality.

UK also split the right vote. A lot of the dissatisfaction with the Tories went further right to Reform. In fact, Corbyn got a higher percentage of the vote than Starmer did, but these guys, like the US electoral college, played the system.

Trudeau and Starmer should be ashamed and introduce a form of proportional representation, but they won’t. 

In MMP Corbyn and the Greens might have had a chance against May. In short, the UK system is bonkers and doesn’t reflect the situation of the country very well where there isn’t a simple left/right continuum in the parties. 

LG

When I see all these environmentalists & climate change activists go to China and India and rip them a new one, they will get my respect and support.
But they don't, they pick on the "West" and not address the real causes of climate change. And America is a prime target. Show some consistency activists. Somehow I don't think China nor India give a shark about what you think. Thumberg won't go near those 2 countries.

i don't know about activists, I don't give them any attention, but what I do know is we can only influence what we can influence which is through our own actions, voting, and setting a good example to the rest of the world.

I also know that green jobs are higher paying, that there's first moved advantage to gain and change is often costly for laggards, and positive side effects such as energy independence and a better environment.

LG

When I see all these environmentalists & climate change activists go to China and India and rip them a new one, they will get my respect and support.
But they don't, they pick on the "West" and not address the real causes of climate change. And America is a prime target. Show some consistency activists. Somehow I don't think China nor India give a shark about what you think. Thumberg won't go near those 2 countries.

Well either the US is the world leader or it isn’t. Its founding principles have been freedom and democracy. 

If ethical companies exist you can vote with your dollars. This then forces changes in behaviour in companies. Equally if the US and Europe regulate to a standard it encourages others to do it because it costs to change their production line. 

The other snap is China can change quickly, though sometimes central commands don’t work in the provinces. For example when they took lead out of petrol, bang, it was gone. 

China has many climate change issues, but for example produces an overwhelming majority of the world’s solar energy systems. And despite the well reported problems they’ve created a massive high speed rail network. Long story short, there’s not a lot of reporting on what’s going on in these huge countries. 

And once China has decided something is forbidden, consequences are dire. Executives in the melamine scandal faced the death penalty.

LG

When I see all these environmentalists & climate change activists go to China and India and rip them a new one, they will get my respect and support.
But they don't, they pick on the "West" and not address the real causes of climate change. And America is a prime target. Show some consistency activists. Somehow I don't think China nor India give a shark about what you think. Thumberg won't go near those 2 countries.

If you look at greenhouse gas emissions per capita, India has like a quarter their emissions per capita of NZ. There is also the issue of developed nations industrialised emitting the most of the cumulative greenhouse gases - like 25% of cumulative greenhouse gases have been emitted by the USA - now its hard to make industrialisation not available for countries like India when they already emit much less GHG/capita than many developed nations and also have not contributed to the volume of GHG in the atmosphere as other nations.

Bullion

LG

When I see all these environmentalists & climate change activists go to China and India and rip them a new one, they will get my respect and support.
But they don't, they pick on the "West" and not address the real causes of climate change. And America is a prime target. Show some consistency activists. Somehow I don't think China nor India give a shark about what you think. Thumberg won't go near those 2 countries.

If you look at greenhouse gas emissions per capita, India has like a quarter their emissions per capita of NZ. There is also the issue of developed nations industrialised emitting the most of the cumulative greenhouse gases - like 25% of cumulative greenhouse gases have been emitted by the USA - now its hard to make industrialisation not available for countries like India when they already emit much less GHG/capita than many developed nations and also have not contributed to the volume of GHG in the atmosphere as other nations.

per capoita is very misleading, theres 5.5m of us and 1.49b of them, even if they are individuallty creating less emmissions as a country they are 100's of times worse than us.
There is little point in NZ being at the leading end of the emmisions, it will make no difference to the ocean levels or air quality globally, and it will cost us as a country mega bucks. The biggest manufacturing countries need to act, ie China, US and India.

Except for, as I said, change is inevitable and if we have a bit of vision we can lead the charge and diversify our economy in the process.

Even ignoring climate change, it's clear that it will not be economically viable to be a small trading country isolated at the bottom of the world that relies on exporting mass amounts of unprocessed primary goods. A tariff war will make our exports less competitive, an unstable world will disrupt supply chains and our shipping, and it will be less appealing for people to buy goods produced on the other side of the world as they start to become more eco conscious.  Dairy is a luxury product, in a global recession dairy prices will collapse. 

The covid stimulus payments were a missed opportunity to build new industry which is immune from the impact of climate change and also increasing global instability and a potential erosion of that liberal and democratic western alliance that has made the world so peaceful and prosperous since WW2.

theprof

Bullion

LG

When I see all these environmentalists & climate change activists go to China and India and rip them a new one, they will get my respect and support.
But they don't, they pick on the "West" and not address the real causes of climate change. And America is a prime target. Show some consistency activists. Somehow I don't think China nor India give a shark about what you think. Thumberg won't go near those 2 countries.

If you look at greenhouse gas emissions per capita, India has like a quarter their emissions per capita of NZ. There is also the issue of developed nations industrialised emitting the most of the cumulative greenhouse gases - like 25% of cumulative greenhouse gases have been emitted by the USA - now its hard to make industrialisation not available for countries like India when they already emit much less GHG/capita than many developed nations and also have not contributed to the volume of GHG in the atmosphere as other nations.

per capoita is very misleading, theres 5.5m of us and 1.49b of them, even if they are individuallty creating less emmissions as a country they are 100's of times worse than us.
There is little point in NZ being at the leading end of the emmisions, it will make no difference to the ocean levels or air quality globally, and it will cost us as a country mega bucks. The biggest manufacturing countries need to act, ie China, US and India.

And there’s a lot more of us than there is on a Pacific Island, but guess who’s going to pay the highest price?

That’s really a morally bankrupt argument, especially from a country whose security is guaranteed by bigger nations. We collectively guarantee each other’s security through pre-emptively managing crises and through forward defense. Climate change has been a crucial defense issue for years.

If we take the we can’t do anything argument, we’d be be encouraging the big powers to test nukes around here away from major population bases.

What the small population for us means is that collective action, and that usually means government or council action is crucial in reducing our footprint.

In the US single corporations like Amazon, Walmart and others have enough power to make a difference with their actions.

Then as you say inflation is an issue, global supply lines are dicey and NZ gets attacked over ‘food miles.’

It’s easier to say we are 100% pure, if we aren’t 100% pure horse shark like when farmers just lie such as the one about being the world’s most sustainable producers. We’re not. There’s no evidence to support this crock. This matters in many premium export markets. 

It is also going to cost us megabucks if we ditch our Paris agreements as this government is doing. We could be looking at $24 billion. And this government’s plan is just to ignore that. 100%!

The EU is our 4th largest trading partner and we’re benefiting from 91% of that trade being tariff free. And the people who’ll put that at threat? The pigheaded government and businesses who want to pretend there is no climate change. That could be a few more megabucks.

As could a recession if a bunch of assets or enterprises become uninsurable. That’s not even considering damage from extreme weather events such as the flooding and landslides we’ve already seen. 

Then we could see changes in the crops that are supported and drastic changes to the country side. That could be an issue for existing farms and their mortgages.

What industries are immune from climate change? If there’s energy and food insecurity, that’s a cause of massive cost increases just to maintain the status quo. 

Now we’ve pulled the rug out from under legislation ensuring our supply chains are free from slave labour, I suppose we could get into the people smuggling business. Though that would undercut calls to stop the boats.

But with the people who live on low lying areas in the Pacific and South East Asia, if we can afford to buy ships that are sea worthy, we could charge a premium to ship them to NZ. That’s a climate change opportunity.

I suppose we could have got into the clean tech business anytime in the last 30 years. But that’s R & D and NZ businesses don’t do that. They just complain about bicycles, rather than put in a couple of bicycle parks. If bicycles can destroy businesses, climate change challenges are a bit of a big ask. Imagine if NZ had created Tesla housing? 

Or our last profitable industry that’s relatively unexploited- our old people’s health. That is to say, for those dependent on the state services now, rather than those already covered by private insurance. Our stock market is mostly ex-state monopolies so soon we’ll be able to trade in the treatment of our overhang population. 

martinb

What industries are immune from climate change? If there’s energy and food insecurity, that’s a cause of massive cost increases just to maintain the status quo. 

Now we’ve pulled the rug out from under legislation ensuring our supply chains are free from slave labour, I suppose we could get into the people smuggling business. Though that would undercut calls to stop the boats.

But with the people who live on low lying areas in the Pacific and South East Asia, if we can afford to buy ships that are sea worthy, we could charge a premium to ship them to NZ. That’s a climate change opportunity.

I suppose we could have got into the clean tech business anytime in the last 30 years. But that’s R & D and NZ businesses don’t do that. They just complain about bicycles, rather than put in a couple of bicycle parks. If bicycles can destroy businesses, climate change challenges are a bit of a big ask. Imagine if NZ had created Tesla housing? 

Or our last profitable industry that’s relatively unexploited- our old people’s health. That is to say, for those dependent on the state services now, rather than those already covered by private insurance. Our stock market is mostly ex-state monopolies so soon we’ll be able to trade in the treatment of our overhang population. 

Maybe immune was the wrong word. I should have said less susceptible. Products which are high margin and don't take up a whole lot of space when shipping. An example would be building semiconductor fabs which requires silica, water, and electricity - all things we have abundance of. The world is reliant on Taiwan for semiconductors and there is a big push to diversify that, we have a preferred position being a member of the five eyes with all the benefits that gets for government supply chains. Semiconductors can be used for everything from solar panels (important with energy insecurity) to computer processors.

We have a lot of green energy sources - from abundance of sunlight, very windy conditions, rivers for hydro, and the sea tor tidal. We could innovate on anyone of those sources, dog food them in our extreme conditions, and build a manufacturing industry around them.

Other examples are industries which are virtual. There is no reason why the next google can't be founded here. 

Our universities have come up with some amazing innovations that we just haven't done a good job building industry around or monetizing. I know Vic, for instance, is currently at the forefront of some interesting research including advanced material science and room-temperature semiconductors.

We can leverage our isolation to our advantage, an example is space, which is our newest multi billion dollar industry, where Rocketlab is licensed for a launch cadence from New Zealand that they could never get anywhere else, that is because of relatively empty skies and masses of ocean whereas other places need to manage the skies and flight paths to avoid damage to civilian infrastructure in a catastrophe. Once again we can utilize our position in the five eyes and newly relaxed ITAR rules in the US to build high tech industry for the US market. It doesn't need to be space, there are a number of suedo-satelite startups in country.

Ultimately our biggest problem is we're capital constrained, we can't invest in our startups - Rocketlab had to go to the US to raise money, even companies that try extremely hard to stay in country (like xero) end up dual listing on other stock exchanges. That is because we disincentivize investment in productive assets, such as businesses, and invest in unproductive assets, like real estate. We have one of the lowest R&D spends in the OECD and we've been like that for twenty years.

Virtual industries need a lot of energy. 

Geez. Imagine if we could do semiconductors. Or is it chips I’m thinking of? The thing Taiwan does amazingly well and every other country is trying to copy and can’t? Which is bonkers when you think about it. 

I’m going to be mean and say it’s like when all the newspapers went tabloid and listicley to get clicks. 5-10 years of being dicks because controversy and clicks were all that mattered to this new tech world. Stuff, looking at past you. 

Turns out clicks are worthless. Turns out 40,000 clicks on something people don’t really care about is worth a lot less to advertisers than a thousand subscribers who are interested and invested in what you have to say. A bit like the old subscriber based newspaper model. 

Unlike the 50s and 60s it’s unclear that tech is going to help us much in the short or long term. Or if we’re even going to be able to sustain our current level of comfort with fertiliser shortages also predicted…

Do think substack was founded here? But it’s due to be disbanded either by Presidential decree or a tweet from the New Zealand Minister for Waste on the basis that it supports journalism and journalists. 

Energy isn't something we have a problem about. And yes, everyone is trying to move chip production domestically. But TSMC is building fabs outside of Taiwan, it just takes government incentive to make it work. We also don't need to go after the high end, as I said solar cells are an option. The world relies on China for those and that's less appealing for the west right now.

When I say the next google can be founded here, I mean something which can change the world and grow into a huge company. With your clicks example it's clear that the internet as we know it is broken and there needs to be a fundamental change, I'm not saying we just copy google - that is stupid, but we create the climate where the next evolution in web, or whatever, can happen. We do that through putting our capital to work. We have a culture of innovation and tinkering, through the number 8 wire mentality, so there is no reason why someone working in a garage doesn't have the next big idea that will change the world for the better.

As I said, we have a huge advantage in our alliances and are part of a pretty exclusive club with the US, Australia, the UK, and Canada. Government procurement rules are very clear about the supply chain management of technology for those countries. That is an advantage that most of the world doesn't have.

Eh don’t mind me, I’m just seeing NZ going down a US culture war path and it’s sharkting me. I’d like to think any NZ university discovery could end up as an industry benefiting large  chunks of society, but I can equally imagine it heading overseas. 

The former fairgo fundamentals are heading the same way as the TV programme. Destroy the checks and balances or just ignore them. 4 more years of that and perhaps a lifetime of the Supreme Court in the US. A pesky treaty preventing you buying land, water or other taonga? Better get that too…

Luxon is the PM for us the way Facebook is a service. Facebook exists to sell us and our data to companies. Luxon has inherited a list and is eliminating or being helped to eliminate barriers to a buy up. Most of us are just in the way, unless in the case of the health system and retirement industry we’re the investment being sold to be juiced.

As far as culture wars go, we're clearly being manipulated. It's the same playbook which has worked throughout history. Culture wars shift the blame on your problems from the people above you to the people below you. It makes zero sense.

In the US people said "I don't care about protecting democracy or a fair and balanced economy, I care about getting rid of immigrants and protecting me from a trans problem that doesn't exist."

Ha ha
That is utter b/s

Ryan

As far as culture wars go, we're clearly being manipulated. It's the same playbook which has worked throughout history. Culture wars shift the blame on your problems from the people above you to the people below you. It makes zero sense.

In the US people said "I don't care about protecting democracy or a fair and balanced economy, I care about getting rid of immigrants and protecting me from a trans problem that doesn't exist."

Ha ha
That is utter b/s

Ryan

As far as culture wars go, we're clearly being manipulated. It's the same playbook which has worked throughout history. Culture wars shift the blame on your problems from the people above you to the people below you. It makes zero sense.

In the US people said "I don't care about protecting democracy or a fair and balanced economy, I care about getting rid of immigrants and protecting me from a trans problem that doesn't exist."