Wellington Phoenix Men

Keeper Angst V1.08

167 replies · 1,496 views
over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
el grapadura wrote:
Can we please not go down this road again...
There is only one solution and it involves a very powerful banstick being applied to wellyphoenixfan
Oska2009-12-01 22:16:49
You know we belong together...

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Stefan wrote:
Hmmm... goals conceded is the best stat?

Another one of WPF's stupid statements.

What do you mean both keepers face the same circumstances?
If you mean that they both stay in their goal box and wear gloves. you are right.

Back up all the statements you made in that.
Ok what stat is better? I am saying out of all the stats avalible goals conceded paints the best picture.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
2ndBest wrote:

wellyphoenixfan wrote:
My point is goals conceded is the best stat you can use to justify how good a keeper is. I know there are plenty of reasons why or why not a keeper conceded the amount of goals they did but both keepers face relatively the same circumstances so I think it is a fair comparison. Of course you have to have a bigger sample than one game.
Epic fail.� Football is not a sport where stats can explain performance/quality.� Cricket and baseball yes.� But Football.� Not a chance.
I disagree. It doesn't show the best picture like in Cricket but it can show a fairly accurate one. You can rate a CM based on Assists, Goals, Tackles made and Metres run on average per game. All this over a season. The chance a good CM would have lower stats then a bad CM in all four of these attributes is very low. Give me an REAL example where this is not true.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
wellyphoenixfan wrote:
2ndBest wrote:

wellyphoenixfan wrote:
My point is goals conceded is the best stat you can use to justify how good a keeper is. I know there are plenty of reasons why or why not a keeper conceded the amount of goals they did but both keepers face relatively the same circumstances so I think it is a fair comparison. Of course you have to have a bigger sample than one game.
Epic fail.  Football is not a sport where stats can explain performance/quality.  Cricket and baseball yes.  But Football.  Not a chance.
I disagree. It doesn't show the best picture like in Cricket but it can show a fairly accurate one. You can rate a CM based on Assists, Goals, Tackles made and Metres run on average per game. All this over a season. The chance a good CM would have lower stats then a bad CM in all four of these attributes is very low. Give me an REAL example where this is not true.


Ante Covic.
Awesome, but played for Jets. Spent the season picking the ball out of the net. According to your stats that would make him a bad keeper but he's way superior to Paston.
Fail

Royal2009-12-01 23:16:12
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
You want me to compare Covic to his reserve keeper (if he played)?

In case you didn't realise that defence was shocking in 08-09. When they won it in 07-08 they had a good defence. Guess what, they had the best defensive record.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Royal wrote:


wellyphoenixfan wrote:
2ndBest wrote:

wellyphoenixfan wrote:
My point is goals conceded is the best stat you can use to justify how good a keeper is. I know there are plenty of reasons why or why not a keeper conceded the amount of goals they did but both keepers face relatively the same circumstances so I think it is a fair comparison. Of course you have to have a bigger sample than one game.
Epic fail.� Football is not a sport where stats can explain performance/quality.� Cricket and baseball yes.� But Football.� Not a chance.
I disagree. It doesn't show the best picture like in Cricket but it can show a fairly accurate one. You can rate a CM based on Assists, Goals, Tackles made and Metres run on average per game. All this over a season. The chance a good CM would have lower stats then a bad CM in all four of these attributes is very low. Give me an REAL example where this is not true.
Ante Covic.Awesome, but played for Jets. Spent the season picking the ball out of the net. According to your stats that would make him a bad keeper but he's way superior to Paston.Fail
My method is only relevant for keepers at the same club. That is why I have yet to compare statistically players from two different clubs. Moss and Paston in the previous season and Paston and Crowther this season. I have said this numerous times...
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
can you please share your equation with us Einstein

Founder

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Are you paston, are you paston, are you paston in disguise.

 
I wish LPF would enter the debate, he'd blow you away WPF

ive got a song that wont take long, Adelaide are rubbish.. the second verse is same as the first.. ADELAIDE ARE RUBBISH

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Wellyphoenix fan- are you going to back up that Moss conceded more goals for the Phoenix per game or not?

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
wellyphoenixfan wrote:
I think in the A-League it doesn't matter who you play as all teams have the possiblity to put quite a few goals against you. Our defence has practically been the same all season except when McKain slotted in but he doesn't drop the level there. This comparison wouldn't work between keepers at different clubs as the defenders are different, midfielders are different etc. At the Phoenix it is relatively them same.

My point is goals conceded is the best stat you can use to justify how good a keeper is. I know there are plenty of reasons why or why not a keeper conceded the amount of goals they did but both keepers face relatively the same circumstances so I think it is a fair comparison. Of course you have to have a bigger sample than one game.


If you knew anything about statistics - let alone football - you wouldn't write this nonsense.

Your numbers on goals conceded don't show very much at all.  As with points/game, the small sample for Paston and the very small sample for Crowther mean that the margin of error is too high for definite statements.  A sample of one isn't very useful.  Similarly, small samples (i.e. below thirty) only hint at the underlying trend.

Here's an example of using statistics (not just numbers) to compare two 'keepers under similar conditions.  This season:

Crowther has conceded 10 goals and made 10 saves.  We could suggest that his shot-stopping efficiency (SSE) is 50%, with an 11% margin of error. (i.e. SSE is probably between 39% and 61%)
Paston has conceded 9 goals and made 21 saves.  We could state that his shot-stopping efficiency is 70%, with an 8% margin of error. (i.e. SSE is probably between 62% and 78%)

This would confirm that Crowther is not as good at shot-stopping as Paston.  However, we know that the samples are not random.  Paston hasn't played against Sydney, one of the best teams in the competition.  Crowther has only played against Sydney, Brisbane and Newcastle.  If we restrict our analysis to games against Brisbane and Newcastle, we find:

Crowther has conceded 4 goals and made 3 saves.  We could suggest that his shot-stopping efficiency against this opposition is 43%, with a margin of error of 19%.  (i.e. SSE is probably between 22% and 62%)
Paston has conceded 4 goals and made 8 saves.  We could suggest that his shot-stopping efficiency against this opposition is 67%, with a margin of error of 14%. (i.e. SSE is probably between 53% and 81%)

You could tentatively conclude from this that Paston's shot-stopping is superior.

However, it would probably be better to WATCH THE GAMES.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Missed the game - semi- deliberately -  and have seen too little of Crowther to form an opinion yet. However, the fact we have to have a coach on the bench if Paston is out concerns me. Read in the Bangkok Post in the weekend that Ian Walker (ex-England,Leicester, Spurs, etc) is currently looking for a club, and would consider an offer from Asia.

He's 38, so not one for the future, and might not be interested in a backup role.
wolfman2009-12-02 02:38:19


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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
^goalkeeping coach
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
wellyphoenixfan wrote:
Royal wrote:


wellyphoenixfan wrote:
2ndBest wrote:

wellyphoenixfan wrote:
My point is goals conceded is the best stat you can use to justify how good a keeper is. I know there are plenty of reasons why or why not a keeper conceded the amount of goals they did but both keepers face relatively the same circumstances so I think it is a fair comparison. Of course you have to have a bigger sample than one game.
Epic fail.  Football is not a sport where stats can explain performance/quality.  Cricket and baseball yes.  But Football.  Not a chance.
I disagree. It doesn't show the best picture like in Cricket but it can show a fairly accurate one. You can rate a CM based on Assists, Goals, Tackles made and Metres run on average per game. All this over a season. The chance a good CM would have lower stats then a bad CM in all four of these attributes is very low. Give me an REAL example where this is not true.
Ante Covic.Awesome, but played for Jets. Spent the season picking the ball out of the net. According to your stats that would make him a bad keeper but he's way superior to Paston.Fail
My method is only relevant for keepers at the same club. That is why I have yet to compare statistically players from two different clubs. Moss and Paston in the previous season and Paston and Crowther this season. I have said this numerous times...


How is your method possibly relevant? Both keepers can not play the exact same game in the exact same circumstances. No game of football is exactly the same. Variables such as weather, time of kick off, location, team selections, formations, pitch conditions, referees, player form, match events and so much more exist.

Just please stop talking.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
I'm loving this argument, it's hilarious some of the sh*t coming out.
 
So here's a scenario:
I am keeping for Real Madrid against Team Wellington, Madrid win 4-0.
Casillas keeps for Real Madrid against Barcelona, Madrid lose 2-0.
 
On goals conceded alone, I am the better keeper. I'm sorry, goals conceded as a method for determining the best keeper doesn't work, as DKP said, there are so many factors to take into account.
 
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
DKP22 wrote:
How is your method possibly relevant? Both keepers can not play the exact same game in the exact same circumstances. No game of football is exactly the same. Variables such as weather, time of kick off, location, team selections, formations, pitch conditions, referees, player form, match events and so much more exist.

Just please stop talking.
 
Your Honour, the Prosecution rests it's case!

Apparently I'm apathetic, but I couldn't care less.

"Being a Partick Thistle fan sets you apart. It means youre a free thinker. It also means your team has no money." Tim Luckhurst, The Independent, 4th December 2003

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Stripes wrote:

wellyphoenixfan wrote:
I think in the A-League it doesn't matter who you play as all teams have the possiblity to put quite a few goals against you. Our defence has practically been the same all season except when McKain slotted in but he doesn't drop the level there. This comparison wouldn't work between keepers at different clubs as the defenders are different, midfielders are different etc. At the Phoenix it is relatively them same.

My point is goals conceded is the best stat you can use to justify how good a keeper is. I know there are plenty of reasons why or why not a keeper conceded the amount of goals they did but both keepers face relatively the same circumstances so I think it is a fair comparison. Of course you have to have a bigger sample than one game.
If you knew anything about statistics - let alone football - you wouldn't write this nonsense.Your numbers on goals conceded don't show very much at all.� As with points/game, the small sample for Paston and the very small sample for Crowther mean that the margin of error is too high for definite statements.� A sample of one isn't very useful.� Similarly, small samples (i.e. below thirty) only hint at the underlying trend.Here's an example of using statistics (not just numbers) to compare two 'keepers under similar conditions.� This season:Crowther has conceded 10 goals and made 10 saves.� We could suggest that his shot-stopping efficiency (SSE) is 50%, with an 11% margin of error. (i.e. SSE is probably between 39% and 61%)Paston has conceded 9 goals and made 21 saves.� We could state that his shot-stopping efficiency is 70%, with an 8% margin of error. (i.e. SSE is probably between 62% and 78%)This would confirm that Crowther is not as good at shot-stopping as Paston.� However, we know that the samples are not random.� Paston hasn't played against Sydney, one of the best teams in the competition.� Crowther has only played against Sydney, Brisbane and Newcastle.� If we restrict our analysis to games against Brisbane and Newcastle, we find:Crowther has conceded 4 goals and made 3 saves.� We could suggest that his shot-stopping efficiency against this opposition is 43%, with a margin of error of 19%.� (i.e. SSE is probably between 22% and 62%)Paston has conceded 4 goals and made 8 saves.� We could suggest that his shot-stopping efficiency against this opposition is 67%, with a margin of error of 14%. (i.e. SSE is probably between 53% and 81%)You could tentatively conclude from this that Paston's shot-stopping is superior.However, it would probably be better to WATCH THE GAMES.
Paston is a better shot stopper although Crowther isnt bad at it. Don't trust the save statistics on the A-League website either. Paston is the better keeper and the statistics back him up. Find me an example where two keepers at the same club are playing and the keeper that is better has worst stats than the one that is worst. Trust me, you won't find one, so stop being ignorant to the numbers. You think it is a coincidence that Paston has better stats?

Crowther has played Sydney (started only once) twice practically and hsd conceded 5 goals. They have only scored 22 and this is nearly 1/4 of their goals scored in two games against one team. The other 17 have been scored in 14 games. This clearly suggests a team that is not good on attack is good against us when Crowther plays no?

Paston has played Melbourne once and conceded only 1 goal. This is against the top attacking team in the league with 27 goals. He has also played GCU twice (21 goals) and CCM once (22 goals) and conceded not once! Another coincidence in Pastons favour I presume?

Considering how most of you had egg on your face last time about how crap Paston was I think most of you should shut up before you embarass yourself further.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
The stats man would have to consider that Crowther played 2.95% of his games away, two of them against Sydney and we've won one game away in over a year. He hasn't lost at home

No one has egg on their faces.
Royal2009-12-02 10:36:54
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
simon_hampton wrote:
I'm loving this argument, it's hilarious�some of the sh*t coming out.
�

So here's a scenario:

I am�keeping for Real Madrid against Team Wellington, Madrid win 4-0.

Casillas keeps for Real Madrid against Barcelona, Madrid lose 2-0.

�

On goals conceded alone, I am the better keeper. I'm sorry, goals conceded as a method�for determining the best keeper�doesn't work, as DKP said, there are so many factors to take into account.

�
If you had read what I had stated previously you would know the teams against must be of similar quality...
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
wellyphoenixfan wrote:
simon_hampton wrote:
I'm loving this argument, it's hilarious some of the sh*t coming out.
 

So here's a scenario:

I am keeping for Real Madrid against Team Wellington, Madrid win 4-0.

Casillas keeps for Real Madrid against Barcelona, Madrid lose 2-0.

 

On goals conceded alone, I am the better keeper. I'm sorry, goals conceded as a method for determining the best keeper doesn't work, as DKP said, there are so many factors to take into account.

 
If you had read what I had stated previously you would know the teams against must be of similar quality...
 
 
I'd say TeeDubs and Barcelona are pretty even. Nah, I am sort of guilty of not reading through the whole thread.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
chocnut wrote:
Wellyphoenix fan- are you going to back up that Moss conceded more goals for the Phoenix per game or not?

Will do once I finish off this lot.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Sorry just realised that my stats from before were wrong.

Crowther has conceded 10 goals as Paston subbed off in that game. So in 5 games has has conceded 10 goals. 2 goals per game.

Paston has conceded 9 goals in 11 games. Now that is what I call outstanding. .81 goals per game.

Statistics don't lie people.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
They don't lie, but they don't show anywhere near the full story.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
wellyphoenixfan wrote:
... You can rate a CM based on Assists, Goals, Tackles made and Metres run on average per game. All this over a season. The chance a good CM would have lower stats then a bad CM in all four ...
 
You said it yourself.
 
All this over a season. Sample is too small to draw the conclusions you are drawing. 
 
I think you'll also find that nobody is saying Crowther is a better keeper than Paston. We are saying that stats don't prove he is sh*te.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
wellyphoenixfan wrote:
Sorry just realised that my stats from before were wrong.

Crowther has conceded 10 goals as Paston subbed off in that game. So in 5 games has has conceded 10 goals. 2 goals per game.

Paston has conceded 9 goals in 11 games. Now that is what I call outstanding. .81 goals per game.

Statistics don't lie people.
 
 
The whole basis of your argument is fundamentally flawed. Give it a rest, ffs.
 

Apparently I'm apathetic, but I couldn't care less.

"Being a Partick Thistle fan sets you apart. It means youre a free thinker. It also means your team has no money." Tim Luckhurst, The Independent, 4th December 2003

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
simon_hampton wrote:
They don't lie, but they�don't show anywhere near the full story.
I know and this is why some peoples heads are close to exploding. In this case I think considering the variables are fairly constant for both so in this case I think it shows quite close to the full story.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Why are we worrying about this? we have no say in what keeper plays and frankly, as long as we get threee points, i don't care who plays keeper.

Scottishbhoy2009-12-02 12:00:52

ive got a song that wont take long, Adelaide are rubbish.. the second verse is same as the first.. ADELAIDE ARE RUBBISH

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Scottishbhoy wrote:

Why are we worrying about this? we have no say in what keeper plays and frankly, as long as we get threee points, i don't care who plays keeper.

We're not worried about this, more worried about improving the thought processes and rationality of some forum members.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
bigtobz wrote:
wellyphoenixfan wrote:
... You can rate a CM based on Assists, Goals, Tackles made and Metres run on average per game. All this over a season. The chance a good CM would have lower stats then a bad CM in all four ...
 
You said it yourself.
 
All this over a season. Sample is too small to draw the conclusions you are drawing. 
 
I think you'll also find that nobody is saying Crowther is a better keeper than Paston. We are saying that stats don't prove he is sh*te.
 
You should listen to Tobz when it comes to this sort of thing, he's a statistician. Granted not a very good one but he is one none the less.

www.kiwifromthecouch.blogspot.com

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
wellyphoenixfan wrote:
chocnut wrote:
Wellyphoenix fan- are you going to back up that Moss conceded more goals for the Phoenix per game or not?

Will do once I finish off this lot.
u should let it go mate, your embarrassing yourself badly

rojas, so special

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
wellyphoenixfan wrote:
Paston is a better shot stopper although Crowther isnt bad at it. Don't trust the save statistics on the A-League website either. Paston is the better keeper and the statistics back him up. Find me an example where two keepers at the same club are playing and the keeper that is better has worst stats than the one that is worst. Trust me, you won't find one, so stop being ignorant to the numbers. You think it is a coincidence that Paston has better stats? [/quote]

Won't find one?  That's true, but not in the way that you think it is, oh keeper of the 'keeper numbers.  I found three pretty quickly, all from big teams in the current season.  I'm sure that there's plenty more out there.

Arsenal

Mannone 5 EPL games conceded 5 goals - an average of 1 goal/match

Almunia 8 EPL games conceded 13 goals - an average of 1.625 goals/match


AC Milan

Dida 7 Serie A games conceded 8 goals - an average of 1.14 goals/match

Storari 7 Serie A games conceded 7 goals - an average of 1 goal/match


AS Roma

Doni 4 Serie A games conceded 6 goals - an average of 1.5 goals/match

Julio Sergio 9 Serie A games conceded 12 goals - an average of 1.33 goals/match


wellyphoenixfan wrote:
Crowther has played Sydney (started only once) twice practically and hsd conceded 5 goals. They have only scored 22 and this is nearly 1/4 of their goals scored in two games against one team. The other 17 have been scored in 14 games. This clearly suggests a team that is not good on attack is good against us when Crowther plays no? [/quote]

Nah.  If Paston had played they'd have scored 26 in the first game and 28 in the second.  I know you think that's unlikely, but I'd like you to prove otherwise with statistics from this season.

[QUOTE=wellyphoenixfan]Paston has played Melbourne once and conceded only 1 goal. This is against the top attacking team in the league with 27 goals. He has also played GCU twice (21 goals) and CCM once (22 goals) and conceded not once! Another coincidence in Pastons favour I presume?


If Crowther had played against Melbourne or GCU, they would've scored a negative number of goals in every game.  I know you think that's impossible, but I'd like you to prove otherwise with statistics from this season.

[QUOTE=wellyphoenixfan]Considering how most of you had egg on your face last time about how crap Paston was I think most of you should shut up before you embarass yourself further.


Honestly, I don't have anything against Paston.  My position is that

You harp on about statistics,
but you know nothing about statistics,
so you're an ignorant blow-hard.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Stripes -     you told him well and proper.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
can i just ask all the keepers out there (and anyone else who might understand) if anyone else has a problem with crowther getting beat by 2 free kicks(by someway) on the side that he was spose to be covering?
 neither the freekick against perth or brisbane was top corner?
 
other than anyother aspects of his game i see this as a major problem, are the coaches looking at this aswell?
 
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago

Case closed.. Well done Stripes.

ive got a song that wont take long, Adelaide are rubbish.. the second verse is same as the first.. ADELAIDE ARE RUBBISH

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Stripes!!!!!!


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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Stripes can be my friend now.
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Stripes, Stripes, Stripes !!!! etc....
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
6 Pages of Numpties arguing about uncomparable numbers...
 
 
Welcome to the Andrew Harper Institute of Statistics
 
After careful consideration of this thread and the arguments provided by both sides, I have arrived at the conclusion that Gould is our best Keeper Statistically...
 
0 Games Played
0 Goals Conceeded at a rate of 0.00 per match!!!
C-Diddy2009-12-02 16:29:04

"Ive just re-visited this and once again realised that C-Diddy is a genius - a drunk, Newcastle bred disgrace - but a genius." - Hard News, 11:39am 4th June 2009

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
C-Diddy wrote:
6 Pages of Numpties arguing about uncomparable numbers...
 
 
Welcome to the Andrew Harper Institute of Statistics


Quite a few spectators though!
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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
Royal wrote:
C-Diddy wrote:
6 Pages of Numpties arguing about uncomparable numbers...
 
 
Welcome to the Andrew Harper Institute of Statistics


Quite a few spectators though!
 
 
Give me some accurate Stats on this claim...

"Ive just re-visited this and once again realised that C-Diddy is a genius - a drunk, Newcastle bred disgrace - but a genius." - Hard News, 11:39am 4th June 2009

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over 16 years ago · edited over 13 years ago
im currently  playing this on fm, il let yo know after 6 games each who is better.

ive got a song that wont take long, Adelaide are rubbish.. the second verse is same as the first.. ADELAIDE ARE RUBBISH

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