Coaching Angst - ZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

 Interesting statistics, confirming the tendency towards the mean of 5.5 - and confirming that CCM are punching well above their weight if you consider that they have a very small budget compared to say Melbourne Victory or to Sydney FC (not Sydney United as reported).

terminator_x

You posted the table and comment below …. Remember every team below you has changed their coach because they have not been happy with their performance and SFC & MV have had numerous coaches…

You said …..Here's the average regular season finishing position of the 8 teams who have competed in all of the last 5 seasons of the A-League (finishing positions have been adjusted to a base 10 team league. So these averages are out of 10).

Central Coast 3.4

Brisbane Roar 4.1

Melbourne Victory 4.4

Sydney FC 4.8

Wellington Phoenix 6.2

Adelaide United 6.3

Newcastle Jets 6.4

Perth Glory 6.9

The better comparison is their coaching record …. The Percentages for coaches who have had more than one season in the A-League….. it clearly shows RH to be the worst coach especially given the squad over the last three seasons is purely his choosing…

Coach ...... Win ....... Draw ....... Lost

GA ...........51.76 ........ 25.88 ......22.35

AP.............52.48.........24.75.......22.77

FF............42.5...........26.25.......31.25

GVE........37.04.........24.07.......38.84

RH..........36.08.........22.15.......41.77

Ricki is honking. Hes got a poor win record. Hes played the same way ever since hes started. Bring in Emblen

The analysis is interesting but here's a non analytical perspective.

My wife would rather watch Sydney (ADP factor) and Melbourne (crowd passion) than the Nix. My elderly mother would rather watch WSW than the Nix (loves the atmosphere - who doesn't ?).

They are both season ticket holders that I now have to drag to watch Nix games (live and on TV). I find myself getting more excited about watching WSW than the Nix but of course I do watch, and support, the Nix out of loyalty - hoping it won't be so painful to watch that I start bleeding from the eyes.

I've long since written this season off but I'm really looking forward to next season with Carlos and a team post squad surgery.

Most of all I'm looking forward to a Nix post Herbert - nothing personal – I just don't think he has anything left to offer as a coach and is taking us down a road to nowhere.

P.S. No angst went in to the making of this post.

You know what i'm saying....... We have never achieved anything higher than a mid table finish. Balls to your statistics.

Harsh^

I'm exactly the same. Also, not being angsty. Just rainbows and bunnies.

I have to agree to a certain extent, I was looking forward to Victory vs WSW over Roar v Nix. 

I am looking forward to Nix v Adelaide FAR more that I looked forward to last weeks game though. Being in the Zone >>>>>> watching any football on TV.

Not sure I agree there Midfielder.

It's the league table that us pathetic and unsophisticated fans care about, and it's our current position on the league table that is generating all the angst. Of course there should be a very high correlation between a coach's record and his team's position on the table - but at the end of a game I'm not thinking "I wonder how that result affects the coach's record?".

The point is that in previous seasons Ricki and the Phoenix have actually performed OK relative to other teams. Your analysis doesn't account for how close the league was in a particular season for instance. It's the position on the league table that matters.

Apart from a few particularly loud voices most people have been pretty happy with Ricki up until now - and that table shows why - on average he's done no more or less than could reasonably be expected. All the heat that is on him now is purely because of this season, despite what a few revisionists would like to have us believe.

Here's a question:

Would we rather have a coach who consistently delivered 5th place in the league or a coach who consistently delivered 1st place and last place in alternate seasons? Over time they will probably have identical coaching records and deliver the exact same average finishing position (5th). I know which one I'd choose but that would also mean putting up with quite a few seasons like the one we're having now.

True. Although as the longest serving A-League coach Ricki is somewhat disadvantaged by that comparison. As my table suggests over time it is harder and harder for teams to avoid converging towards the middle. A lot of coaches are missing from your analysis because they got sacked or because they haven't been at their current club long enough.

Ricki should take the blame for a lot of things but I don't think we can blame him personally for not getting sacked yet!

Such a Ricki fan you're even giving him credit for qualifying for more finals than he actually has...

Haha my mistake. I only said that it wasn't bad for a guy who doesn't know anything. Never said I was a fan, or gave a position on this endless circular discussion - I've already given it. 

Some interesting comments on RH in here from others in football - pity it is all off the record.  But they are all fair pointa and hard to argue with really

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/soccer-football/news/article.cfm?c_id=86&objectid=10867354

The Herald's football coverage is significantly better than the dompost

Yeah! The NZHerald has some football writers who actually know how to research and write a proper piece. Much higher quality journalism than the dross that comes out of the Doompost....especially from Sam "gossip columnist" Worthless. How he got a job as a journalist is beyond me.

Well researched piece on Herbert. Funny how everyone wanted to comment anonymously....seems to be a bit of "don't want to get on the wrong side of Ricki". Also agree that we are still getting the best and the worse of Herbert this season....nothing much has changed IMO. Quite a few people( Fallon, van Egmond, Ross Aliosi) have said that they don't see a lot different in what the Nix are doing this season. We are getting lots of the  same old Herbert. Two DM's, Siggy(or keeper) hoofing it up from the back, playing it wide, getting lots of people in the box, putting in loopy crosses....everyone running all game.

I don't think there is a "mark 2" version of Herbert....he has a coaching style that he seems to be locked into. I really don't think he can/will change that style.

Whats frustrating to see is if we did slightly change our tactics and were a bit more patient we would have a slightly better chance of scoring. Right now as soon as the players have sight of the goal they cross it, regardless of how many or few players we have in the box and regardless of how many or how few defenders are in the box. To often we crossed when there was an easier option to play it across to the central midfield and start again. Possibly the midfield don't want it, but we never seem to look for that ball back inside. 

I dont mind us looking to score off crosses, but you still need to be patient and wait for the right time.

It just makes it so easy to defend they know every time where the ball is going. Now I agree we did get 2 goals. But the first came from Adelaide gifting us one. The second was from a ball lumped into the box, just was one of the very few times it landed to one of our players (good flick on from stein).

With the number of Cakes in their box it was always going to be a bit hopeful that we would win anything from the the crosses.

Certainly a few missed opportunities to lay it back to a mid standing outside the penalty area.

Small steps.  This game showed they have some spine and Ifill is getting back into form.  Look forward to seeing Cernak, Gamiero and Ifill supply Waffles with some noice ball.

The most frustrating moment of the game for me was when Brockie got the ball in a bit of space and Waffles made a nice little run into the box. However instead of passing Brockie decided to run the ball into a wall of defenders. *sigh*

But to be fair, he does get quite a fair few quotes from RH to balance it. This has to be one of the better articles I've seen on the Nix for quite a while.

As a relatively impartial observer (outside of ACFC)  and keen follower of NZ football I find the above quite disturbing. It's hard enough to motivate kiwis to go watch local football as we all know but when the loyalists grow indifferent you have a real problem. A crowd of barely 5,000 for the latest Phoenix home game is almost a tipping point. The fans are speaking with their feet.

I think you simply have to bring in a new broom. Herbert has run his course and new thinking is needed. You really must rejuvinate interest in the Phoenix and more of the same will not do that. I think it needs to be an experienced overseas appointment to be a step up.

I'd even like a change at the All Whites.

Does it matter though? The points raised were correct and what a lot of people have been saying. Doesn't matter who said it but I think people agree that Herbert hasn't embraced local talent enough, his record is poor, he's tactically outmanouvered (I like how he raised the oceania cup as a good example), and the writer also claims his recruitment has been poor overall ( though some claim that because he signed Ifill that's all that matters).

These are all things that have been raised by people on this forum which has also seen the pro Herbert brigade attack with some of the silliest arguments. Such as making playoffs 3 years in a row.

Once again it doesn't change the fact the points raised aren't incorrect. And I'm sorry but 25 players getting game time isn't exactly high over a 6 year period. Especially when a big chunk of that number would have been minimal game time. And the number is mostly made up of all whites that had already proven themselves overseas first. And you definitely can not include naturalised players. We are talking about developing local talent. Not handing out nz passports.

But we're also talking about winning. 

Playing kiwi's for the sake of it and finishing last is exactly the sort of thing Ricki would have been lambasted for.  Just saying 'play more kiwis' doesn't change the fact that we don't produce hundreds of A-League quality players.

Didn't say play more just saying he shouldn't snob it like he has in the past. Never suggested play kiwis for the sake of it. I'm saying there is more talent in nz than we have been lead to believe. This coul possibly be something we choose to disagree on.

Seems to me that the Phoenix has not been great for the development of NZ players who have tended to flourish after leaving for whatever reason.

Today I had a phone call from someone I work with who had been talking to Ricki's agent, which I'm sure some of the senior YF members know who I'm referring too, and I was told that Ricki has been given an ultimatum by the board today: get sacked or resign and move upstairs.

This will be announced tomorrow (Tuesday) and am not sure if it'll be immediate or at the end of the season, so can't help you there.

Believe me if you wish, but my colleague who met Ricki's agent is also about to sign to be on his books too, so has credit.

I mean the first year we have the academy and already we have 2 kiwis getting regular game time. And one is only 17 (has been given to much game time if you ask me). This makes me believe that in other years there has most likely been other talent like this that's available. we have just never been looking

I didn't think anyone would believe it, but I'm just sharing what I heard today.

If its true, then great! Otherwise take it or leave it.