WPM R26 vs Melbourne Victory | Sat 12th Apr | 5:00pm | RoF / Sky Sports 5
208 replies·8,541 views
12 months ago
Still not mathematically eliminated from the Finals but rather unlikely. But it would be nice to have some revenge for last seasons Finals loss at the RoF.
Still not mathematically eliminated from the Finals but rather unlikely. But it would be nice to have some revenge for last seasons Finals loss at the RoF.
Rather unlikely is an understatement. I'd say 1 in a million we qualify for the playoffs.
Still not mathematically eliminated from the Finals but rather unlikely. But it would be nice to have some revenge for last seasons Finals loss at the RoF.
Rather unlikely is an understatement. I'd say 1 in a million we qualify for the playoffs.
Still not mathematically eliminated from the Finals but rather unlikely. But it would be nice to have some revenge for last seasons Finals loss at the RoF.
Rather unlikely is an understatement. I'd say 1 in a million we qualify for the playoffs.
Have a little faith, all that needs to happen is: 1. We win the remaining three matches 2. Sydney and Adelaide pick up no points in their remaining three matches 3. We win by an average goal difference of four, and Sydney looses by an average goal difference of four.
Still not mathematically eliminated from the Finals but rather unlikely. But it would be nice to have some revenge for last seasons Finals loss at the RoF.
Rather unlikely is an understatement. I'd say 1 in a million we qualify for the playoffs.
Someone over on Reddit ran a rest-of-season simulation 10,000 times about two or three gameweeks ago - even then, the Nix only made it to the playoffs twice
Still not mathematically eliminated from the Finals but rather unlikely. But it would be nice to have some revenge for last seasons Finals loss at the RoF.
Rather unlikely is an understatement. I'd say 1 in a million we qualify for the playoffs.
Someone over on Reddit ran a rest-of-season simulation 10,000 times about two or three gameweeks ago - even then, the Nix only made it to the playoffs twice
A 1 in 5000 chance is way better than 1 in a 1,000,000 chance - I'll take it.
Still not mathematically eliminated from the Finals but rather unlikely. But it would be nice to have some revenge for last seasons Finals loss at the RoF.
Rather unlikely is an understatement. I'd say 1 in a million we qualify for the playoffs.
Someone over on Reddit ran a rest-of-season simulation 10,000 times about two or three gameweeks ago - even then, the Nix only made it to the playoffs twice
Victory's been playing really well lately on attack. Arzani, Piscopo, Velupillay, Fornarolli and Bos have been destroying defences. Due for a big win IMO. Should be a good watch.
Still not mathematically eliminated from the Finals but rather unlikely. But it would be nice to have some revenge for last seasons Finals loss at the RoF.
Rather unlikely is an understatement. I'd say 1 in a million we qualify for the playoffs.
Someone over on Reddit ran a rest-of-season simulation 10,000 times about two or three gameweeks ago - even then, the Nix only made it to the playoffs twice
Did they factored in Italiano’s new lucky shirt? And I saw him this morning coming walking out of Auroras Psychic reading with a big smile. I’m going for a win!
Still not mathematically eliminated from the Finals but rather unlikely. But it would be nice to have some revenge for last seasons Finals loss at the RoF.
Rather unlikely is an understatement. I'd say 1 in a million we qualify for the playoffs.
Honestly, I just want to see us finish above CCM now. For all the dismay over how our season as gone, that would feel like a small win. Beating last years winners & who also lost key players like us, so have struggled just as much.
Still not mathematically eliminated from the Finals but rather unlikely. But it would be nice to have some revenge for last seasons Finals loss at the RoF.
Rather unlikely is an understatement. I'd say 1 in a million we qualify for the playoffs.
Have a little faith, all that needs to happen is: 1. We win the remaining three matches 2. Sydney and Adelaide pick up no points in their remaining three matches 3. We win by an average goal difference of four, and Sydney looses by an average goal difference of four.
Yea - 1 in a million. If you run the odds, it would easily be around that ballpark, maybe 1 in 10 million.
Getting a +24 GD swing over 3 games is so absurdly rare, it's basically lottery odds. Based on historical A-League results and general football scoreline trends, the chance of:
Still not mathematically eliminated from the Finals but rather unlikely. But it would be nice to have some revenge for last seasons Finals loss at the RoF.
Rather unlikely is an understatement. I'd say 1 in a million we qualify for the playoffs.
Have a little faith, all that needs to happen is: 1. We win the remaining three matches 2. Sydney and Adelaide pick up no points in their remaining three matches 3. We win by an average goal difference of four, and Sydney looses by an average goal difference of four.
Yea - 1 in a million. If you run the odds, it would easily be around that ballpark, maybe 1 in 10 million.
Getting a +24 GD swing over 3 games is so absurdly rare, it's basically lottery odds. Based on historical A-League results and general football scoreline trends, the chance of:
I like the work, and I hate to rain on a well thought out parade.
But aren't there four games left?
Hope it's not too much to recalculate all that.
As an educated guess, given more matches need to be played it makes it less likely of a scenario for us to sneak in, those probabilities have probably jumped out to about 1 in 35,000,000ish. Let me know what ChatGPT says. 🤣
Still not mathematically eliminated from the Finals but rather unlikely. But it would be nice to have some revenge for last seasons Finals loss at the RoF.
Rather unlikely is an understatement. I'd say 1 in a million we qualify for the playoffs.
Have a little faith, all that needs to happen is: 1. We win the remaining three matches 2. Sydney and Adelaide pick up no points in their remaining three matches 3. We win by an average goal difference of four, and Sydney looses by an average goal difference of four.
Yea - 1 in a million. If you run the odds, it would easily be around that ballpark, maybe 1 in 10 million.
Getting a +24 GD swing over 3 games is so absurdly rare, it's basically lottery odds. Based on historical A-League results and general football scoreline trends, the chance of:
I like the work, and I hate to rain on a well thought out parade.
But aren't there four games left?
Hope it's not too much to recalculate all that.
As an educated guess, given more matches need to be played it makes it less likely of a scenario for us to sneak in, those probabilities have probably jumped out to about 1 in 35,000,000ish. Let me know what ChatGPT says. 🤣
Ah—got it. If Wellington Phoenix has 4 games left, that changes things a little. Let’s rerun the odds now with that extra match giving them more breathing room.
⚽ Updated Scenario Breakdown:
📌 Current Situation:
Wellington Phoenix: 24 points, GD −11, 4 games left
Sydney FC: 33 points, GD +11, 3 games left
Adelaide United: 33 points, GD 0, 3 games left
If Wellington wins all 4 matches:
They reach 36 points
Could pass both Sydney and Adelaide if those teams stay at 33
New Required GD Swing vs. Sydney:
Wellington: −11 → needs to overcome a +11 difference
Total GD swing needed = 22
Now over 4 games → need ~5.5 GD swing per round (e.g. 3–0 wins while Sydney loses 3–0, etc.)
Let’s plug this into updated probabilities.
🔢 Updated Probabilistic Estimate
1. Wellington Wins 4 Games
Let’s bump win probability up a bit with 4 chances:
Assume 40% win chance per game So:
P(win 4 in a row) = 0.4^4 = 0.0256 → 2.56%
2. Sydney FC Loses All 3 Games
Still:
P = 0.3^3 = 2.7%
3. Adelaide United Loses All 3 Games
Same:
P = 2.7%
4. Goal Difference Swing (22 Goals)
Still extremely rare, but over 4 games it's marginally less insane than over 3.
Should have also stated that all the teams that are we can theoretically catch - WSW, Sydney, Adelaide, Victory all have four games left too. Macarthur have three.
Sorry to be a pain (genuinely not taking the piss, but the numbers do intrigue me) 😅
(Two to be omitted) Ins: 3. Adama TRAORE (promoted), 6. Ryan TEAGUE (return from injury) Outs: 11. Clerismario SANTOS RODRIGUES (injured) Unavailable: Nil
I expect the exact same formation as last week, as it is the same lineup, so that'd be 5 at the back.
The broadcast have shown that same 5-3-2 formation with Piper in central defense and Sheridan & Ishige in midfield and Nagasawa up front, might be one of the few times they get that right.
If we play like we did in the first half last week we've got a shot.
If we play like we did in the second half last week we'll get pulverized.
I'd be happy with a draw from this to be honest. They've been tight/close games (scoreline wise...) for the past few years though, so who knows, a solitary goal could be enough.
