I'm not sure how to follow the argument that the AFC should help the OFC because it will strengthen the AFC's position? How would you convince the AFC that they should help the OFC? (Bearing in mind that a merger would require approval from the�membership and can't actually be otherwise forced.)
Ok, I might have jump too far ahead on this one, but it will be based on AFC's position among the other confederations (which isn't that crash hot) and also a basic manipulation of the FIFA ranking system.
The basic beginning up-shoot argument.
By assisting OFC to stand on their two feet on professional terms will enable AFC to say that there is no need for a merger because OFC is suitably capable to run things at a high enough level of competitiveness against the other confederation.
AFC and OFC position
The big picture and opinion of the rest of the football world, is that OFC is the weakest, poorest and smallest confederation that should be absorbed by AFC.
FIFA disincentives
With disincentives by FIFA (which is mainly controlled by UEFA and COMBEBOL) to restrict assistance to AFC for not merging e.g. lack of WC spots in tournaments and making it hard to make other support programmes to AFC, the pressure then falls on AFC unneccessary. AFC as you know does not want the merger because e.g. too much load, splitting the confederation to save cost, increasing financial cost. So therefore it is very understandable from their point of view.
Changing both AFC & OFC confederation strength
The best thing is to change OFC confederation strength and therefore changing the football world's opinion. We cannot change OFC size, but we can improve it's football weaknesses as well as it's financial position to do much more. So for AFC, without actually merging and hereby avoid a White Elephant on their behalf, AFC and OFC could have joined incentives to improve both confederations strength and create a win-win situation, without actually merging.
AFC is the next weakest confederation
At the moment, it is very much considered that AFC is relevantly the next weakest confederation after OFC because that despite their top 5 sides doing so and so at World Tournaments, Africa and North America are a jump ahead with better results. That is why the CWC tournament is a semi-graded event and the World Tournaments (not just the men's world cup but also the age groups and women's) has only so much spots to give to AFC compared to the other confederation except for OFC.
Generally how active the other confederations are
Since Africa is large and therefore very hard to change and improve so AFC can't do much there as well as it being generally dangerous to travel. North America has joined programme incentives with either South America or in some cases with Europe and is not interested with much AFC interaction as they see AFC as inferior. South America has all sorts of programme incentives around the whole world but in bit and pieces. Europe are self serving with the cream of the chop and has the money and the wealth of the clubs and so they have no time for AFC. It only leaves OFC that hardly anyone wants to work with.
AFC (like Africa) has many countries, over long distances and with varying degrees of wealth. It is very difficult to run things, that they even have sub-confederation committees within the AFC to run parts of the confederation. However, OFC is seen as a worse than any of those sub-confederations and complicates their internal problems if they merge.
There is absolutely no way they would even consider absorbing OFC.
Now what does the AFC need to strengthen their confederation?
An AFC problem
Outside their top 5 or 8 side, there is a large drop in football ability among the other AFC nations. There is a need to improve these third tier AFC nations to improve their confederation strength. The reality is that most of these AFC nations are poor and in very weak football state. At the moment, with New Zealand being an equivalent of 9th to 5th AFC ranked nation, the next 6 OFC countries are strong enough to foot it with their 16th to 8th AFC countries. Apparently, those countries are just as poor and lacking competition like our OFC countries (beside NZ). The cost to develop those national teams is an ongoing problem.
What is needed?
What is needed, is to captialise on the multiplying strength factor of
inter-confederation games that carries large FIFA ranking points to get some of their AFC countries into the next AFC tier and up the FIFA rankings. At the same time, some of the other OFC countries can also earn large FIFA ranking points to increase their FIFA rankings.
Now you may say that it also means that other countries of AFC or OFC will go down and therefore makes no difference to the confederation.
Not so, more inter-confederation games, the more FIFA ranking points available. The multiplier effect in the FIFA points formula means that the FIFA ranking points are actually inflationary in nature.
How does that work?
Remember that FIFA ranking point system accounts and awards a country a set number of won games in a year period for 4 years? The game that is won by one country is counted in the FIFA formula, whilst on the flip side, the same game that is lost by the other country is not counted by the FIFA formula because it is not one of their best games of the year. This imbalance creates an inflationary effect in the FIFA ranking points system.
By allowing more inter-confederation competition between AFC and OFC countries, will actually increases more ranking point in each country's best games and in turn increases the available ranking points within each confederations. The increased ranking points within each confederation affects their confederation strength multiplier effect that is reviewed now and again.
A FIFA committee reviews each confederation after a certain period (I think after each Men's World Cup)
and "re-grades" the confederation strength multiplier within the FIFA formula.. An increase of FIFA ranking points within a confederation would sway the committee to increase the confederation's strength multiplier within the formula. This means that "intra"-confederation games in AFC and OFC could almost be (or the same par) as the FIFA ranking point available in the "intra"-confederation games in Europe and South America and therefore increases the strengthen of AFC and OFC as a whole again. This will enable the top AFC nations to eventually crack into the FIFA top 10 or at least having a consistent top 25 placing. This also means that there are more games available at a higher standard against UEFA countries teams for the top AFC sides.
In conclusion:
At the moment, the confederation strength multiplier is a biased system that awards the games within a stronger confederation greater than the games within a weaker confederation. However, the inter-confederation games has a multiplier effect and it's value is inflationary and allows both confederation to increase their overall confederation strength at the next review. This will leads to a re-grading of the confederation strength and leads to more points available within each confederation for the other lower ranked nations as well as giving the top AFC and OFC countries an increase in points to make a general move up the FIFA ranking ladder and creating more higher quality games available in the future. Again helping AFC and also OFC nations in achieving higher quality games with other confederations countries.
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